World Cup Day 29: Spain’s Control Meets Belgium’s Momentum
France handled Morocco with little drama. Now Spain face the tournament’s hottest attack in a quarterfinal that finally feels like a genuine test.
Morocco eventually ran into a team that never allowed the match to become the kind of fight they wanted.
France won 2–0 yesterday, and unlike several other knockout matches we’ve watched so far, the result felt fair. Morocco defended well enough to keep the game scoreless through the opening half, but they created nothing in attack and never forced France to defend dangerous situations.
Kylian Mbappé had a penalty saved before scoring in the 60th minute. Ousmane Dembélé doubled the lead six minutes later after Morocco failed to clear another attack inside the box. France never needed to rush. They controlled possession, limited Morocco’s transitions and trusted their quality.
Morocco’s first shot on target did not come until the 83rd minute, which probably tells the story better than anything else.
Their tournament should still be remembered as another impressive run. Morocco eliminated the Netherlands, comfortably beat Canada and reached another World Cup quarterfinal after becoming the first African nation to reach the semifinals four years ago. Missing Ismael Saibari definitely hurt, but Morocco have reached the point where injuries and moral victories are no longer excuses.
Morocco genuinely believed they could beat France. France were simply better.
Mbappé now leads the tournament with eight goals, Dembélé continues to punish defenses from the right wing and Didier Deschamps’ side have still not conceded in the knockout rounds. France are back in the semifinals for a third consecutive World Cup and now wait for the winner of today’s quarterfinal.
Spain arrive without conceding a goal at this World Cup.
Belgium arrive after scoring 12 across their last three matches.
Can Belgium Finally Disrupt Spain?
Spain have played five matches at this World Cup without conceding a goal.
Belgium have become the second most dangerous attacking team left in the tournament.
That makes this one of the most fascinating matchups we’ve had so far.
Spain defend by keeping the ball. Rodri gives them control at the base of midfield, Fabián Ruiz gives Spain another midfielder willing to play forward, and their counterpress usually wins the ball back before opponents can properly think.
Portugal probably came closer than anyone else to showing how Spain can be frustrated. They stayed compact, matched Spain technically through midfield and forced the Round of 16 match into stoppage time before Mikel Merino came off the bench to score the winner. Even then, Spain never looked uncomfortable. That’s become one of their biggest strengths under Luis de la Fuente.
Belgium won’t try to win the same way Portugal did. Trying to out-possess Spain is usually how you lose to them.
Belgium are at their best when matches become stretched and chaotic. That’s exactly how they recovered from 2–0 down against Senegal before winning 3–2 in extra time, and it’s how they dismantled the United States 4–1 in the Round of 16. They need moments where Spain lose their shape.
Kevin De Bruyne returns to the starting lineup after missing Belgium’s previous two knockout matches, giving Rudi Garcia his most important creator back. Jérémy Doku also returns, while Charles De Ketelaere leads the attack after scoring twice against the United States.
It’s what makes Belgium different from everyone Spain have faced so far. Doku creates the advantage. De Bruyne exploits it. De Ketelaere finds the gaps left behind.
Spain’s job is making sure none of those players receive the ball while facing forward.
The United States struggled with that. The American midfield stepped toward the ball without enough protection behind it, leaving Belgium free to attack the next line. Spain are far better equipped to close those gaps.
Belgium know patient buildup probably won’t be enough. They have to make Spain turn and run. Belgium are also playing without a traditional striker from the start. De Ketelaere will move away from the center backs, De Bruyne will look for the space behind Rodri and Trossard will drift inside from the right. That movement may be more useful against Spain than simply asking Lukaku to battle Laporte and Cubarsí for 90 minutes.
Doku gives them the best chance of doing exactly that. Every time he isolates a defender, Spain has to react.
Belgium have become much more comfortable changing the way. Earlier in the tournament they tried to control matches with the ball. Lately they’ve been perfectly comfortable defending deeper, waiting for mistakes and attacking quickly once space opens up. Against Spain, that’s probably the smarter approach.
The problem is Belgium are missing the midfielder they’d want most for this game.
Amadou Onana suffered a torn ACL against the United States and will miss the remainder of the tournament. It removes Belgium’s best ball-winner and their most athletic midfielder. Belgium start Timothy Castagne, Nathan Ngoy, Brandon Mechele and Maxim De Cuyper across the back, a group that will spend the whole game defending Spain’s movement around the penalty area.
Nicolas Raskin and Youri Tielemans now have to handle the space Onana normally protects. Tielemans gives Belgium passing quality, while Raskin brings more energy and aggression, but neither offers the same combination of size, range and ball-winning. That could become the biggest matchup of the afternoon. If Rodri and Fabián Ruiz consistently receive the ball under little pressure, Spain will spend most of the afternoon attacking.
Spain have already shown they don’t need Nico Williams to play their game. Spain start Álex Baena on the left, with Dani Olmo playing centrally behind Mikel Oyarzabal. Baena may not attack defenders the same way Nico Williams does, but his movement gives Spain another player who can drift inside and combine through midfield. With Yeremy Pino still unavailable, Spain have spread the creativity across several players instead of relying on one winger.
That puts even more attention on Lamine Yamal. He has only scored once, but his influence goes beyond goals. Every opponent has placed extra defenders toward him, opening space elsewhere. Maxim De Cuyper gets the direct matchup with Yamal, but he will need support. Every extra defender Belgium send toward that side creates another passing lane for Olmo, Oyarzabal or Fabián Ruiz.
Spain’s depth may end up deciding this match. Merino already came off the bench to eliminate Portugal, and de la Fuente continues finding important goals from his substitutes. Belgium have been just as dangerous in that department. Their substitutes have scored five goals at this World Cup, the most of any nation, and Romelu Lukaku has embraced a bench role that allows him to attack tired defenses late.
Belgium always seem one transition away from changing a match.
Thibaut Courtois could also end up being Belgium’s most important player.
Spain are almost guaranteed to create moments where Belgium struggle to leave their own half. Courtois has the ability to keep those moments from turning into goals long enough for Belgium’s attack to find another opportunity.
History also leans Spain’s way. They are unbeaten in 11 meetings with Belgium dating back to 1980, winning nine of them, and extended their overall unbeaten run to 15 matches after eliminating Portugal.
Those results won’t decide today’s match.
They do reinforce one thing, though. Spain know exactly who they are, and no team left in this tournament has forced them away from that identity.
Player to Watch: Kevin De Bruyne
Belgium become a completely different team when De Bruyne plays.
Doku may be their best dribbler and De Ketelaere has become one of the tournament’s breakout performers, but De Bruyne remains the player most capable of changing a match with one pass.
Very few teams have forced Rodri to defend behind him at this World Cup. Belgium need De Bruyne to be the first.
If he can pull Spain’s midfield out of position and find runners before Spain reorganize, Belgium have a genuine chance of ending the longest defensive streak left in the tournament.
Prediction: Spain 2–1 Belgium
I think Belgium finally become the first team to score against Spain at this World Cup.
De Bruyne gives them a creator unlike anyone Spain have faced in the knockout rounds, Doku only needs one successful dribble to change a game and Lukaku remains one of the tournament’s best options off the bench.
I still trust Spain more. They’ve been the most complete team in the tournament from the opening match through the quarterfinals. Rodri and Fabián Ruiz will gradually take control of midfield, Yamal will keep Belgium’s left side busy and Spain have already shown they don’t need to dominate the scoreboard early to win.
Belgium will make this uncomfortable. Spain eventually find the moment they’ve found all tournament.
A France-Spain semifinal feels like the matchup this World Cup has been building toward.