World Cup Day 26: One More Night for Ronaldo, One More Chance for the United States
Ronaldo and Yamal share a field. The United States try to keep the summer going.
Last night gave us one upset and one of the matches of the tournament.
Norway knocked Brazil out of the World Cup 2–1, and the match somehow felt exactly like what everyone feared when Erling Haaland appeared on Brazil’s side of the bracket. Brazil had more talent, more cheers and probably more of the chances. Norway had Haaland, and that was enough.
Then came the Azteca.
England and Mexico delivered the kind of knockout match that reminds you why this tournament keeps destroying prediction brackets. Jude Bellingham scored twice, Harry Kane converted a penalty and Mexico spent the final half hour throwing numbers forward after Jarell Quansah’s red card changed the game completely.
By the end of it, Kane could barely speak during his post-match interview and Bellingham looked like someone had asked him to immediately play another 90 minutes at altitude. That is usually a pretty good indication that everyone involved left something on the field.
Even politics somehow found its way into the story. Donald Trump publicly praised Kane after the match and became part of the conversation surrounding Folarin Balogun’s suspension at almost exactly the same time, which feels like a sentence that only makes sense during a World Cup in the United States.
Today’s schedule gives us Portugal against Spain in Dallas and the United States against Belgium in Seattle.
I will be at Portugal–Spain.
Cristiano Ronaldo against Lamine Yamal in what Ronaldo has confirmed will be his final World Cup is not the sort of match I am capable of watching objectively. I am going to make a serious effort to approach it like a reporter.
That effort will probably last until kickoff.
The Iberian Derby Gets a World Cup Stage
I don’t think I have looked forward to a match more than this one all tournament.
The easy version of this preview is Ronaldo against Yamal. The more interesting version is what happens in the middle of the field.
Spain have become one of the most complete teams in the tournament. Since the opening draw with Cape Verde, they have not conceded a goal, they have controlled matches almost entirely through possession and spacing, and they have looked comfortable defending without the ball when opponents force them into those moments.
Portugal offer a very different challenge.
Roberto Martínez’s side are comfortable playing through pressure rather than around it. Vitinha and João Neves are both willing to receive with defenders tight to their backs, Bruno Fernandes constantly looks for vertical passes before defenses settle, and Bernardo Silva’s movement inside creates overloads that can drag midfielders away from Rodri.
That may be the entire match.
Portugal’s biggest advantage comes when Vitinha can receive, turn and play forward before Spain’s press arrives. Whoever wins that exchange probably controls the evening.
Spain want Lamine Yamal isolated against defenders as often as possible, but Portugal may have the best answer left in the tournament. Nuno Mendes is healthy, fresh and one of the few fullbacks in the world with the pace and physicality to survive repeated one-on-one situations against him.
Yamal himself has called Mendes the toughest opponent he has faced. That does not mean Yamal disappears from the match. It means he may have to find different ways to influence it.
Portugal will also believe there is space behind Spain’s fullbacks. João Cancelo and Rafael Leão attacking transitions against a high Spanish line is a matchup Portugal should welcome, especially if Spain are missing Nico Williams again and ask more of Marc Cucurella in possession. Spain continue to monitor Williams while Yeremy Pino remains unavailable.
The emotional side of this game is obvious.
One of the greatest international careers football has ever seen is trying to buy itself another week.
The football side is pretty good too.
Player to Watch: Vitinha
Everyone will start talking about Ronaldo. Most of them will end talking about Yamal.
Vitinha may end up deciding the match anyway.
When Portugal play their best football, it usually starts with him escaping pressure and turning midfield into open space for Bruno and Leão to attack. If Spain force him backward all afternoon, Portugal become reactive rather than proactive.
That is exactly the version of this game Spain want.
Prediction: Portugal 2–1 Spain
Spain may be the best team left in the tournament. I am still picking Portugal.
Part of that is emotional and I am comfortable admitting it. Ronaldo in his final World Cup against Spain in Dallas feels almost too perfect a setup for football not to do something ridiculous.
The tactical reasons exist too. Portugal have more depth off the bench, more flexibility if the match changes shape and a midfield that matches Spain’s better than most teams can.
Ronaldo gets his moment. Bruno creates one. Portugal survive one of the matches of the tournament.
Can The United States Make Belgium Defend Backwards?
Seattle is going to be ridiculous for this. The atmosphere matters.
The football matters more.
Belgium remain one of the most talented teams left in the field, but they have looked vulnerable whenever opponents have forced their back line to turn and run toward its own goal. Senegal created problems through wide players and direct running, and the United States have to ask similar questions.
Balogun’s availability changes the entire conversation.
His suspension has officially been lifted, Belgium’s federation remains furious and FIFA somehow managed to turn a straightforward disciplinary decision into one of the biggest stories of the knockout stage.
Whatever anyone thinks about the politics of it, the football impact is obvious. The United States are better with him.
Balogun stretches defenses in a way no other American forward currently can. That matters because Christian Pulisic becomes much more dangerous when center backs are worried about runs behind them rather than stepping aggressively into midfield.
That battle is where I keep coming back. I have written some version of this sentence throughout the tournament, but I trust midfields in knockout football.
Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie and Malik Tillman give the United States balance, ball-winning and progression. Belgium have Kevin De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans, which means this may simply become a fight over who receives facing forward and who receives with someone immediately arriving on their back.
Adams probably spends most of the evening chasing De Bruyne’s passing lanes. McKennie probably spends most of it trying to make Belgium’s midfield slightly more miserable than it wants to be.
Both jobs matter.
Belgium will likely have more possession. The United States may actually prefer that.
Pochettino’s team have looked their most dangerous when they can defend aggressively, recover the ball and attack before opponents settle into shape. Belgium’s fullbacks have been vulnerable in transition and Pulisic attacking those spaces is probably the clearest route to an American goal.
That is where Seattle starts becoming relevant. Because fast teams become faster when the crowd starts helping every transition feel urgent.
Player to Watch: Tyler Adams
Adams will quietly decide the match.
If he can keep De Bruyne receiving with his back to goal rather than facing the American defense, the United States have a real chance of controlling the game without controlling possession.
That is exactly the type of midfielder I trust in tournaments.
Prediction: United States 2–1 Belgium
This American squad feels built for this kind of match.
Belgium have the bigger names and the cleaner structure. The United States have the legs in midfield, the transition threat out wide and now, thanks to Balogun’s availability, the striker who makes the entire attack fit together.
Pulisic creates one. Balogun scores one. Seattle gets the night it wants.