World Cup Day 25: Brazil, Norway and a Night at the Azteca
Haaland gets Brazil, Mexico get England, and the Round of 16 keeps finding new ways to make favorites uncomfortable.
Morocco are not a surprise anymore. That feels like the biggest takeaway from yesterday.
Canada started with energy, pressed well and made the first half very uncomfortable, but Morocco handled it and then did what experienced tournament teams do. They waited for the match to turn, punished open space and turned a dangerous game into a 3–0 win that looked much cleaner on the scoreboard than it actually was.
Azzedine Ounahi scored twice, Soufiane Rahimi added another, and Morocco became the first team into the quarterfinals. Canada leave with a historic tournament, a knockout win and a better sense of what this team can become before 2030. Morocco continues with another quarterfinal and another reminder that they are one of the best teams left.
France followed with the kind of win that didn’t need to be beautiful. Paraguay made the match physical, slow and frustrating, which is exactly what they did to Germany. France were missing Aurélien Tchouaméni, dealt with the heat in Philadelphia and never really found the free-flowing version of themselves. Then Kylian Mbappé stepped up from the penalty spot and solved the game anyway.
That is usually the difference with France. They just need one moment where the opponent blinks.
Now Day 25 gives us two very different games. Brazil face Norway in New Jersey, which means Vinícius Júnior and Erling Haaland share the same knockout stage. Then Mexico host England at the Azteca, where altitude, noise, pressure and history all become part of the tactical preview.
I already missed on Ecuador at the Azteca once. Apparently I learned nothing, because I still think that stadium can change a match.
Brazil Meet The Haaland Problem
Brazil against Norway sounds simple until you actually start thinking about it. Brazil have the better squad, the better tournament history and more ways to win the match.
Norway have Erling Haaland. He’s not a small thing to put on the other side of the argument.
Carlo Ancelotti’s team survived Japan in the Round of 32 thanks to Gabriel Martinelli’s stoppage-time winner, and that match (in theory) gave Brazil a useful warning. Japan forced them to solve problems. They did not let Brazil drift through the game on reputation.
The difference is that Norway’s danger is much more obvious. Haaland has been one of the best players in the world, and Norway’s entire structure makes sense because of him. Ståle Solbakken needs his team to get Haaland service in areas where one touch can become a goal. Martin Ødegaard gives Norway the passing quality to make that happen, while Antonio Nusa adds speed around him.
Casemiro, Bruno Guimarães and the center backs have a tall task. Brazil have defenders familiar with Haaland from club football, but knowing what is coming and stopping it are not the same thing.
Brazil, of course, have their own problems to offer.
Vinícius Júnior has looked like the player Brazil needed him to become. He makes every opponent defend with one eye on the left wing. Neymar’s fitness has been monitored throughout the tournament, but Carlo Ancelotti has suggested he can play a larger role now. Raphinha has returned to training and could be available from the bench, while Lucas Paquetá is expected to miss out with a hamstring strain. That absence matters more than it might seem.
Brazil can replace quality with quality, but Paquetá gives them a mix of work rate, combination play and timing. Without him, Brazil may need more from Bruno Guimarães and Rayan between the lines. The midfield cannot become too passive because Norway will happily let Brazil have the ball in safe areas and wait for one mistake to launch Haaland.
Brazil will create chances. Norway will create fewer, but theirs will feel terrifying every time Haaland gets near the penalty area. That is what makes him different. He can be quiet for 30 minutes and still make the entire match feel like it is leaning toward him.
As someone who usually enjoys teams that make favorites solve uncomfortable problems, I understand the Norway argument. I just think Brazil have more answers.
Player to Watch: Vinícius Júnior
Haaland is the obvious headline, but Vinícius may decide whether Brazil control this game or simply trade moments with Norway.
Once the block starts shifting toward him, Brazil’s central players find more space and the far-side winger becomes more dangerous.
Brazil need Vinícius to make Norway defend more than just the scoreboard.
Prediction: Brazil 2–1 Norway
Ødegaard will create chances, Nusa will find space in transition and Haaland is probably getting a moment somewhere along the way because that is what he does.
I still trust Brazil’s depth more than Norway’s.
Vinícius feels ready for one of those performances where every touch changes the defense, Guimarães gives Brazil another creator between the lines and Ancelotti simply has more answers available once the match starts changing.
Harland gets his goal. Brazil gets the result.
England Have A Mountain To Climb. Literally.
This is the match of the day.
Brazil–Norway has the bigger individual matchup because of Haaland, but Mexico–England has the better setting. A World Cup knockout match at the Azteca. Mexico coming off its first knockout win in 40 years. England walking into altitude, noise, weather concerns and a fan base that has already made life uncomfortable for opponents before kickoff.
That is part of the game.
Mexico have been efficient, disciplined and defensively excellent throughout the tournament. They beat Ecuador 2–0 in the Round of 32, kept another clean sheet and finally removed a burden that had been hanging over them since 1986. Javier Aguirre’s team overwhelms opponents with constant pressing waves. Teams cannot breathe against Mexico. They wait for the moments when the stadium starts pushing the match toward them.
Thomas Tuchel has a right-back problem again. Reece James has been managing fitness issues, Jarell Quansah has returned to training but has not been fully settled, and Djed Spence is now a doubt with a calf issue. England can adjust, but knockout matches at the Azteca are not where you want to be solving these problems.
The altitude is real too. England have already had to answer strange questions about preparation, including the whole Viagra rumor, which is one of those World Cup subplots that makes you wonder how we got here. Tuchel dismissed it, but the point remains: playing at the Azteca is different. The ball travels differently. Recovery feels different. The crowd feels closer than it probably is. Mexico will try to make all of that matter.
Raúl Jiménez gives them experience and penalty-box presence. Julián Quiñones gives them another direct attacking option. Érik Lira and Luis Romo can make midfield uncomfortable, and Gilberto Mora has added a calmness that still feels ridiculous for a teenager in this environment. Mexico need to keep the match close long enough for every English touch to start feeling heavier.
England’s answer has to come through midfield control. Jude Bellingham, Declan Rice and whichever attacking players Tuchel trusts around Harry Kane have to make the game feel less emotional. England cannot spend 90 minutes reacting to the stadium. They need to make Mexico chase the ball, where Saka or Rashford attack isolated defenders and where Kane receives with runners around him instead of dropping too deep just to help England breathe.
I know England should probably win.
I also know “should” has not exactly been a reliable word in this tournament.
Player to Watch: Jude Bellingham
Bellingham is England’s best chance of turning a chaotic environment into a football match they can control.
He gives them ball-carrying, late runs and the kind of edge that matters when a game starts feeling emotional. Mexico will try to make this a fight for rhythm. Bellingham is one of the few players England have who can win that fight while still creating something going forward.
England need him to be the adult in the room.
Prediction: England 2–1 Mexico
England usually makes these matches harder than they need to be.
Mexico have the crowd, the altitude and a team that knows exactly how it wants to play. The Azteca matters. I still believe that, even after missing on Ecuador a few days ago.
England have the better midfield and, in Jude Bellingham, probably the player most capable of slowing the game down when everything around him starts speeding up.
Kane finds a goal, Bellingham controls enough of the match and England survive one of the most difficult environments left in the tournament.
It will not be comfortable. It probably shouldn’t be.