World Cup Day 24: The Round of 16 Begins
Canada meet Morocco in Houston, France face the team that sent Germany home, and the tournament starts asking better questions.
Football is not for the lighthearted. Yesterday proved it.
Egypt and Australia gave us a match that made everyone involved age five years. Emam Ashour scored early, Australia equalized through a Mohamed Hany own goal, and then the match slowly turned into penalty-shootout tension. Mohamed Salah was not at his sharpest in open play, but he still stepped up in the shootout, scored his penalty and helped Egypt reach the Round of 16 for the first time after a 4–2 win on penalties. It was the moment Egypt had been chasing for decades.
Argentina nearly gave the tournament its biggest shock.
Cape Verde did not just hang around against the defending champions. They kept answering.
Messi scored, Cape Verde responded. Argentina scored again, Cape Verde responded again. Eventually, a late own goal in extra time sent Argentina through 3–2, but Cape Verde left the tournament with one of the best stories of this World Cup.
They were supposed to be happy just to get here. Instead, they pushed Argentina into a match that made the champions look around for answers.
Then Colombia played Ghana, which means I spent most of the night pretending to be normal.
I was not normal.
Jhon Arias scored early, Colombia defended well, Luis Díaz had a goal ruled out for offside, and the final whistle felt much better than the actual match did. Ghana made Colombia work, especially with their physicality and defensive shape, but Colombia handled the game with enough control to move on. It was not perfect, and Jhon Córdoba’s early injury is something to watch, but Colombia are in the Round of 16.
That is all I needed from the night.
Now the tournament changes again. Canada against Morocco opens the day in Houston, followed by Paraguay against France in Philadelphia.
One co-host trying to keep making history. One Moroccan team that has started feeling like a problem. One Paraguay side that already sent Germany home. One French team that still looks like the best in the tournament.
Not a bad way to start the next round.
Canada’s Run Meets Morocco’s Machine
Canada have already done something that matters. They reached the knockout stage. They won a World Cup knockout game. They gave their home tournament a moment that has cemented themselves in Canadian sports history.
Now comes the hard part.
Morocco are not South Africa. They are not a team Canada can simply press into panic for 90 minutes. At some point, we have to stop treating Morocco like a great story and start treating them like one of the best teams left in the tournament.
Canada under Jesse Marsch want energy, pressure and verticality. They want the game to feel fast. They want Jonathan David attacking space, Stephen Eustáquio arriving into second balls and Alphonso Davies stretching the field whenever he is on it. Davies is on the bench after returning from injury, and his role may define how aggressive Canada can be. Even when he is not at full match fitness, he changes how opponents defend because very few players in the world can cover ground like he does.
Canada still have a major absence in midfield with Ismaël Koné out after his leg injury. That matters against Morocco because Koné’s ball-carrying and physical presence would have helped Canada escape pressure. Without him, Eustáquio has even more responsibility to keep Canada connected.
Morocco will test that connection constantly.
Mohamed Ouahbi’s team play with what he has described as organized chaos, and that phrase actually fits them. Morocco are disciplined without being predictable. Ismael Saibari has been one of the best midfielders in the tournament, and Brahim Díaz can create the kind of chaos that makes a defensive shape start guessing. That is dangerous for Canada.
Marsch’s teams are aggressive by nature, but Morocco are very good at punishing aggression that arrives half a step late. Canada have to press with timing, compactness and cover behind the ball. Morocco are too good technically to be bothered by pressure that isn’t coordinated.
The Hakimi matchup is probably the first place to watch.
Canada need Richie Laryea, Davies or whoever ends up dealing with that side to survive more than one action. Hakimi forces wingers to track deeper than they want and creates space inside by constantly threatening outside.
That is why Morocco feel so difficult to play against right now. They can go wide through Hakimi, central through Saibari, between lines through Díaz or into transition through quick passes after winning the ball.
Canada’s best chance is making the match less clean. Not reckless. Not desperate. Just uncomfortable. David has to be clinical with limited touches and Canada’s midfield has to turn second balls into attacks before Morocco can reset.
As someone who has probably spent too much of this tournament backing teams that make favorites uncomfortable, I understand the appeal of Canada here. The energy, Davies back in the picture, David in form, all of it makes sense.
I just keep coming back to Morocco’s balance. They look like a team that knows exactly what kind of tournament they are in.
Player to Watch: Achraf Hakimi
Hakimi is Morocco’s starboy, creator and safety all at once.
Against Canada, his role matters because he can shift the entire field even from right-back. When he gets forward, Canada’s left side has to defend deeper. When Canada lose the ball, Hakimi is one of the first players Morocco will look for to turn pressure into runs. Few fullbacks in the world affect a match this much without needing to dominate the ball.
Prediction: Morocco 2–1 Canada
Canada will make this difficult.
They have lots of energy, belief and too much attacking quality for Morocco to cruise through the match. Davies will give Canada a real weapon when needed, and David only needs one clean chance to change the whole game.
Morocco still have more high quality players, which means more ways to control the match.
Canada’s run has been special. Morocco’s run continues.
France Meet The Team That Does Not Care About Names
Paraguay already ruined one European giant’s tournament. France knows that better than anyone.
Gustavo Alfaro’s side knocked out Germany in the Round of 32 by dragging the match into their world. It was physical, tense, frustrating and exactly the game Germany did not want to play. Paraguay defended well, competed for everything and survived long enough to win on penalties.
It’s an identity. France are a different problem, though.
They have been the most convincing team in the tournament. Kylian Mbappé has looked sharp, Ousmane Dembélé has given them another elite wide threat, and Didier Deschamps’ side have controlled matches without always needing to dominate every minute. France can play fast, slow, direct or patient. That is what separates them everyone else.
The biggest team news is Aurélien Tchouaméni’s will not play due to a thigh injury. That matters because Tchouaméni gives France defensive balance and progression from midfield. Manu Koné is expected to step in, and while France have the depth to survive almost any injury, replacing Tchouaméni against a Paraguay team that thrives on duels and second balls is not a small detail. Paraguay will notice.
Miguel Almirón and Julio Enciso give Paraguay enough attacking quality to make France defend real moments, not just random counters. Diego Gómez gives them running power from midfield, and their set pieces will matter. Against Germany, Paraguay looked comfortable turning every recovery into a chance to breathe, reorganize and make the favorite defend something uncomfortable.
France have to avoid treating this like an easy win.
That sounds obvious, but it is the entire match. Paraguay are not going to win by looking better on a graphic. They are going to win by making France rush passes, absorb contact, defend corners and slowly start to feel like the match is tighter than it should be.
The heat in Philadelphia could also become part of the game. Deschamps has already talked about how extreme conditions can affect performance, and this does not feel like a match where either team will have unlimited energy to press for 90 minutes. That probably helps Paraguay in some ways because they want the game to be slower and more divided. It also helps France because they have the individual quality to decide a slower match with one action.
That is the problem with playing France. You can have the right plan for 70 minutes and still watch Mbappé turn one bad angle into a goal.
Paraguay will not be scared. After Germany, why would they be? But France have more pace, more depth and more match-winners than any opponent Paraguay have faced so far.
I respect Paraguay too much now to dismiss them. I still think France are the worst possible version of a favorite to try this against.
Player to Watch: Kylian Mbappé
Sometimes the obvious answer is still the correct one.
Mbappé changes how teams defend before the ball even gets to him. Fullbacks drop earlier. Center backs open their hips sooner. Midfielders stop pressing as aggressively because they know one pass behind them can become a sprint they are not winning.
Paraguay can make the match ugly. Mbappé can make ugly irrelevant.
Prediction: France 2–0 Paraguay
Paraguay will make France work.
They are too organized, too physical and too confident after beating Germany for this to become easy. The Tchouaméni absence gives Paraguay a real area to test, especially around second balls and midfield duels.
France still have too much.
Mbappé finds one, Dembélé helps create another, and France move into the quarterfinals without giving Paraguay the chaos they need.