World Cup Day 23: Argentina, Colombia Close the Round of 32
Australia and Egypt chase history, Argentina meet the tournament’s best underdog story, and Colombia face Ghana in Kansas City.
I went into Portugal vs. Croatia expecting to watch two legends fight for one more World Cup night.
I left thinking about VAR, Gonçalo Ramos and how weird it feels when a stadium realizes in real time that one of these tournament careers might be ending.
Portugal beat Croatia 2–1 in Toronto, and the match somehow managed to feel emotional, messy, historic and extremely modern all at once. Cristiano Ronaldo scored the first World Cup knockout goal of his career from the spot, Gonçalo Ramos headed in the winner in stoppage time, and Croatia had a late equalizer wiped away after one of those offside decisions that makes everyone in the stadium look around for confirmation. Luka Modrić walked off with Croatia eliminated, Ronaldo walked off with Portugal headed to face Spain, and I walked out feeling like I had watched one era keep going while another probably came to a close.
That was a pretty good first World Cup knockout match to see in person.
Earlier in the day, Spain made Austria look much less annoying than I expected. Mikel Oyarzabal scored twice, Pedro Porro added another, and Spain won 3–0 without allowing a shot on target. That stands out more than the scoreline. Austria were supposed to make Spain uncomfortable with pressure, duels and tempo. Spain turned the match into their own rhythm anyway.
Then came Switzerland, which is where my Algeria pick aged badly. I thought Algeria’s emotion and energy could tilt the match in Vancouver. Switzerland basically responded by reminding everyone that structure works better than vibes. Breel Embolo scored early, Dan Ndoye added another after halftime, and Granit Xhaka helped turn the match into exactly the kind of controlled match Switzerland wanted.
So yes, Algeria over Switzerland did not exactly cover itself in glory. I will take that one too.
The Round of 32 ends today with three very different games. Australia and Egypt meet in Dallas with both countries chasing a rare World Cup knockout win. Argentina face Cape Verde in Miami, where the defending champions meet the best story left in the tournament. Then Colombia and Ghana close the night in Kansas City, which means I will spend the entire day pretending to be calm and then absolutely not being calm by kickoff.
That is usually how Colombia knockout days go.
A Chance Neither Team Wants to Waste
This is probably the least glamorous match of the day. It doesn’t make it the least interesting.
Australia and Egypt are both looking at this game as a real opportunity to do something historic. The Socceroos have made knockout rounds before, but chances to advance deeper into a World Cup do not come around often. Egypt have Mohamed Salah, a proud football history and still very little World Cup knockout success to show for it.
Tony Popovic’s side is physical. They will happily settle for set pieces and long balls. They do not need to dominate possession to create pressure.
Hossam Hassan’s team have more technical quality in the final third, and now they know Mohamed Salah will be part of it from the start after some doubts about his fitness.
Australia can defend deep and make Egypt work for every touch around the box, but preparing for Salah and stopping him are usually two different things. Fullbacks hesitate before stepping forward. Center backs shade toward his side. Midfielders think twice before pressing too aggressively because one pass into space can become a sprint they have already lost.
Omar Marmoush, Trezeguet and the midfield runners around him have to punish the attention Salah creates. Australia will happily commit extra numbers toward Egypt’s captain if nobody else makes them pay for it.
Australia’s defensive approach will likely be to stay compact around the box and make Egypt’s wide players beat them repeatedly rather than giving Salah easy lanes inside. Harry Souttar’s aerial presence matters here, both defensively and on attacking set pieces. In a knockout match that could come down to one chance, Australia will not apologize for making the game physical.
Player to Watch: Mohamed Salah
There is no need to overthink this one. Salah is starting. That changes the conversation.
Australia can defend well and still spend the afternoon worrying about where he is standing, where he is moving and where he might be five seconds from now.
Egypt need him to make one or two moments feel bigger than everything around them.
Prediction: Egypt 1–0 Australia
Australia will make this uncomfortable. They are too organized, too physical and too dangerous on set pieces for Egypt to ease past this game.
I still trust Egypt to find one cleaner attacking moment. Maybe it is Salah. Maybe it comes from the attention Salah creates. Egypt have just enough attacking quality to survive a match that probably will not be pretty.
The Champions Meet the Best Story Left
Cape Verde have already won, in a way.
That does not mean they are satisfied. It just means this World Cup has already given them something nobody can take away. A country making its first World Cup, drawing Spain and Uruguay, reaching the knockouts and then getting Lionel Messi’s Argentina in Miami is the kind of story that sounds fake.
However, Argentina are not here for someone else’s fairytale.
Lionel Scaloni has spent the buildup making sure his team does not treat Cape Verde like a formality, and that is probably the right move. Argentina won all three group matches, rotated players when needed and still looked like the team with the clearest experience of tournament football. They know when to slow a match down, when to press, when to foul, when to wait and when to let Messi decide something that nobody else can decide.
That is still the biggest problem for Cape Verde. Messi may not cover the same ground he once did, but he still bends matches around him. Defenders take smaller steps when he receives. Midfielders stop looking over their shoulders because they are staring at him. Goalkeepers cheat early on free kicks and then regret it. Cape Verde can defend well for 85 minutes and still lose because Messi found a few seconds that nobody else saw.
This isn’t analysis. That is just what watching Argentina has become.
Cape Verde’s best chance is making this a low-energy game for as long as possible. They have already shown they can frustrate elite teams. Their draw with Spain was not an accident, and neither was the way they competed against Uruguay. They defend with pride and are comfortable letting opponents have the ball without letting them have the match.
Argentina will try to pull them apart with patience. Alexis Mac Allister, Rodrigo De Paul and Enzo Fernández give Argentina enough control to keep Cape Verde pinned back, but the key is tempo. Too slow, and Cape Verde can stay compact. Too rushed, and Argentina start forcing passes into traffic.
Argentina are at their best when they make teams defend for so long that eventually somebody loses concentration for a second.
Cristian Romero’s return is one of the bigger boosts Argentina received this week. After missing the Jordan match with a knee issue, he returned to full training and appears to be available if Scaloni wants him.
For Cape Verde, set pieces and counters are the plan. They need to make Argentina defend long throws, free kicks, corners and any loose transition chance with total concentration. That is where underdogs live.
I want Cape Verde to make this interesting because stories like theirs are why the expanded World Cup can work. I also know Argentina are very good at ending stories before they get too romantic.
Player to Watch: Lionel Messi
It is Messi. Sometimes there is no need to be different just for the sake of being different.
Argentina have stars everywhere, but Messi is still the player who turns a normal possession into a tournament moment. Against a compact Cape Verde block, his passing angles, set-piece delivery and ability to find space at walking speed will matter more than Argentina’s possession numbers.
Cape Verde can defend well and still spend the whole night chasing his decisions.
Prediction: Argentina 2–0 Cape Verde
Cape Verde will not embarrass themselves. They are too organized and too proud for that. Argentina should still have too much control, too much experience and too much Messi.
The champions move on, and Cape Verde leave with one of the best stories of the tournament.
Colombia Cannot Let This Become Ghana’s Game
This is the one that will ruin my ability to watch the earlier games like a normal person.
Colombia against Ghana in a World Cup knockout match sounds fun until you remember Colombia are involved and suddenly every harmless pass across the back line feels like a personal attack.
Colombia have been one of the better teams in the tournament. They topped a group with Portugal, DR Congo and Uzbekistan, defended well, created enough chances and looked like a team that understands exactly what Néstor Lorenzo wants from them.
That does not mean this is comfortable. Ghana are not built for comfortable.
They frustrated England, competed throughout Group L and arrive with Antoine Semenyo available, which is a major plus. Mohammed Kudus was already missing from the tournament because of injury, but Ghana still have enough pace, strength and grit to turn this match into something Colombia will have to earn.
Colombia want to create wide isolations for Luis Díaz and Jhon Arias, then let James Rodríguez find the pass that connects everything. James just needs to appear in the right pocket at the right time and make the pass nobody else saw. That has basically been his Colombia career in one sentence.
Luis Díaz is the player Ghana will worry about most. He gives Colombia the one thing every knockout team needs: a way to make something happen when the match gets tight. Díaz can create space for everyone else, even when he is not scoring.
Ghana’s plan will be physicality and compactness. Thomas Partey, if he starts in midfield, gives them experience and ball-winning. Jordan Ayew gives them leadership and the ability to slow the game down when needed. Semenyo gives them the transition threat that can make Colombia’s fullbacks think twice before pushing too high.
Colombia cannot let this become a game of broken rhythm. That is Ghana’s comfort zone. Fouls, pauses, long clearances, second balls, counters, 50-50 duels. Ghana will not mind any of it.
Colombia need emotional control as much as tactical control. They have to move the ball quickly without rushing, press aggressively without overcommitting and avoid the kind of cheap turnovers that turn a manageable game into a track meet.
Jefferson Lerma and Gustavo Puerta matter here because Colombia need midfield balance. Lerma gives them physical presence and protection. Puerta gives them carrying ability and a little bit of youthful edge, which I always appreciate in a midfielder as long as it does not become a yellow-card fest.
The good news is Colombia have no major injury or suspension concerns reported. The bad news is that knockout soccer does not really care how healthy you are once the game starts getting weird.
Player to Watch: Luis Díaz
Díaz is Colombia’s pressure release. When the game gets tight, Colombia need someone who can carry the ball 30 yards, beat a defender or turn a dead possession into a set piece. Díaz gives them that, and Ghana will have to decide how much help they send toward his side.
Send too little, and he can decide the match. Send too much, and James starts finding the space that opens behind the shift. Ghana have to manage that all night.
Prediction:
Nope.
What I will say is this: Colombia have looked like one of the better teams in the tournament. There has been more control to their performances, more patience and more answers when opponents try to drag them into a game they do not want to play.
Tonight is the test. Ghana will make Colombia earn everything. They defend well, compete physically and have enough to turn one mistake into an entirely different match.
The opportunity on the other side is enormous. Switzerland are already waiting in the quarterfinals bracket, and suddenly a path that felt theoretical a week ago feels very real. That is why this match feels bigger than a Round of 32 game.
This is usually where the questions start. Colombia get 90 minutes to answer them.