World Cup Day 21: The Co-Hosts Get Their Turn
England face a trap game, Belgium meet a dangerous Senegal side, and the United States carry the night shift into Santa Clara.
Yesterday belonged to the teams that handled pressure best.
Mexico finally put an end to four decades of frustration in the knockout rounds, controlling the match at the Azteca and beating Ecuador 2–0 to reach the Round of 16. Norway survived exactly the kind of physical battle they expected against Ivory Coast before Erling Haaland eventually did what Erling Haaland usually does in tournaments like this and found the winner late. France somehow managed to be the least dramatic team of the day, which might be the most frightening thing about them right now. Kylian Mbappé scored twice, Bradley Barcola added another, and Sweden never really managed to make the match uncomfortable.
So yes, the Ecuador prediction aged badly. I will take that one.
It felt like a reminder that knockout football punishes hesitance faster than almost anything else in sport. Mexico trusted their structure, Norway trusted their stars and France trusted the ridiculous amount of attacking talent they keep rolling onto the field.
Day 21 brings a different challenge. England, Belgium and the United States all enter as favorites, but the knockout rounds have already shown that being the better team on paper and surviving ninety minutes are not always the same thing.
England’s Right Side Has a Problem
England should win this match. That sentence felt safer a week ago.
Thomas Tuchel’s side won Group L and avoided the kind of group-stage chaos that can derail a tournament before the knockouts even settle in. On paper, England have the stronger squad, more attacking options and considerably more tournament experience.
However, England’s history in matches like this is a little less convincing.
Maybe this is just years of watching England tournaments talking, but matches like this always make me nervous on their behalf.
DR Congo arrive with lots of freedom and very little pressure. They pushed Portugal, competed well against Colombia and came from behind to beat Uzbekistan for their first World Cup victory. Yoane Wissa has been one of the stories of the tournament, and Sébastien Desabre’s side have become increasingly comfortable on the counter-attack.
England’s biggest issue sits at right back.
Reece James is unavailable, Jarell Quansah is dealing with an ankle issue and Tino Livramento has not recovered in time for the knockout rounds. Djed Spence is expected to start, and while he gives England pace, building a new partnership on that side of the field in a knockout match is not ideal.
Declan Rice returning to midfield changes the shape of the game for England.
Rice allows Jude Bellingham to play higher and more aggressively between the lines, which may end up deciding the entire match. England need Bellingham receiving in dangerous areas rather than dropping deep, and they need Bukayo Saka isolated against defenders instead of receiving with two players already waiting for him.
Harry Kane will eventually get touches. The more important question is whether England can create enough movement around him to pull DR Congo’s defensive block out of position.
As much as I enjoy underdogs making favorites uncomfortable, this feels slightly beyond DR Congo’s ceiling.
Player to Watch: Jude Bellingham
Bellingham changes the speed of England’s football.
Kane scores goals, Rice stabilizes matches and Saka creates width, but Bellingham decides whether England feel cautious or dangerous. When he starts carrying the ball forward and arriving late in the penalty area, England suddenly look far more difficult to contain.
DR Congo would probably prefer this match to become compact and physical, with England circulating possession in front of them rather than through them. Bellingham is the player most capable of breaking that rhythm with one carry through midfield or one run beyond Kane. If England find themselves frustrated after an hour, this is usually where he starts taking the match personally.
Prediction: England 2–1 DR Congo
DR Congo have enough pace and confidence to make England work for this.
England have spent the last decade turning comfortable situations into uncomfortable ones often enough that the anxiety never fully disappears.
England still have too much quality through midfield and too many solutions in the final third to let this become another Germany or Netherlands story.
Bellingham finds space, Kane eventually finds a goal, and England survive the first hour of tension that seems to follow them everywhere they go.
Belgium Have The Names. Senegal Have The Personality.
Belgium have spent most of this tournament trying to prove this generation belongs in the conversation.
Senegal doesn’t seem interested in conversations.
Belgium looked far more convincing in the 5–1 win over New Zealand, and Jeremy Doku’s return gives them a different way of attacking. Kevin De Bruyne remains the creative center of everything they do, while Doku and Leandro Trossard give Belgium width and unpredictability that simply were not there earlier in the tournament.
The problem is that Senegal feel built for exactly this sort of game.
Pape Matar Sarr and Pape Gueye bring energy and aggression in midfield, while Ismaïla Sarr and Nicolas Jackson can turn recoveries into attacks before Belgium have time to organize defensively. Senegal can become dangerous in a few passes.
As someone who has spent years watching Senegal look slightly better than their tournament finishes suggest, this feels like the type of matchup that finally swings their way.
I also have a soft spot for teams that make favorites solve football problems instead of simply trying to survive them. Senegal tend to do exactly that.
The Édouard Mendy injury matters.
Losing a goalkeeper with his experience changes the feel of a knockout match, and Mory Diaw will almost certainly see more work than he would prefer against Belgium’s attack.
Still, the midfield battle keeps bringing me back to Senegal.
Belgium want De Bruyne receiving with time and space to turn. Senegal have spent the tournament making sure creators never receive either. If De Bruyne spends the evening receiving with his back to goal instead of facing it, Belgium’s attack starts looking much more ordinary.
That produces the kind of midfield battle I enjoy watching.
Player to Watch: Ismaïla Sarr
De Bruyne will get the headlines. Sarr may decide the game.
His ability to attack space quickly and force defenders into recovery runs gives Senegal a chance every time Belgium lose their shape. The more Belgium push numbers forward, the more dangerous Sarr becomes.
One clean touch from Sarr can turn a controlled possession sequence into a foot race toward goal. If Belgium spend the evening asking questions in possession, Sarr may end up providing the answer in transition.
Prediction: Senegal 2–1 Belgium
I keep coming back to Senegal here.
Belgium have more tournament pedigree, more recognizable names and probably more possession. Senegal feel better suited for the kind of match this is likely to become.
Pape Matar Sarr and Pape Gueye give Senegal enough aggression to disrupt Belgium’s rhythm in midfield, while Sarr and Jackson can turn recoveries into attacks before Belgium have time to settle defensively.
I think Senegal are exactly the type of team this tournament has rewarded so far.
The U.S. Cannot Let This Become A Waiting Game
This is the kind of match the United States wanted and feared at the same time. They avoided Brazil, France and Argentina. That sounds like good news until you remember what comes next.
They are at home, they are favored and anything short of advancing will feel like failure.
Bosnia and Herzegovina are dangerous because they can play freely. Edin Džeko gives them experience and penalty-box IQ, while the players around him have enough technical quality to make the United States defend for longer stretches than the crowd may want.
The Christian Pulisic decision feels increasingly straightforward.
Start him.
Pulisic says he feels ready after recovering from the calf issue that kept him out of the Australia match, and the U.S. attack simply looks different when he is on the field. Defenders shift toward him, spaces appear elsewhere and set pieces immediately become more dangerous.
In a knockout game at home, there is very little value in saving your best player for later.
Tyler Adams matters almost as much.
I’ve probably written some version of this sentence ten times during the tournament, but in knockout football I tend to trust midfields. Adams gives the United States leadership, ball-winning and the ability to stop counters before they become emergencies. Weston McKennie provides physicality, while Folarin Balogun gives the United States a forward willing to run beyond defenders and force back lines to make decisions they would rather avoid.
Bosnia know exactly what they want the match to become. Protect the middle. Keep the score close. Let Džeko turn one chance into a goal.
The United States cannot spend an hour waiting for the game to happen to them.
Antonee Robinson has to provide width on the left. Tim Weah has to threaten in behind on the right. The United States are at their best when the field feels stretched and the midfield can arrive into gaps rather than forcing everything through crowded central spaces.
Player to Watch: Christian Pulisic
This is why Pulisic matters. He changes the math.
Defenders cheat toward him. Midfields shift toward him. Fullbacks hesitate because they know one mistake can become a sprint toward goal.
Few American players have ever carried that kind of weight.
Maybe that pressure is unfair. It is also the reality of being the face of soccer in the United States during a home World Cup.
Prediction: United States 2–1 Bosnia and Herzegovina
I think Bosnia make this uncomfortable.
Džeko is too smart, the occasion is too big and the pressure on the United States is too obvious for this to become an easy night.
Maybe this is just years of watching U.S. tournaments talking, but these are exactly the kinds of nights that tend to age everyone involved.
The U.S. still have more athleticism, more attacking variety and a crowd that should matter if the game starts tilting in their favor.
Pulisic gets involved. McKennie has a moment. The United States survive.