Spain did not need chaos, a late winner or one of the individual moments France seemed capable of producing at any second. It took control early and never gave the tournament’s most dangerous attack the type of match it wanted.

Mikel Oyarzabal converted a penalty in the 22nd minute after Lamine Yamal drew a foul from Lucas Digne. Pedro Porro doubled the lead in the second half after combining with Dani Olmo, and Spain spent the rest of the night denying France the openings it had found throughout the tournament.

France entered the semifinal with the World Cup’s most dangerous attack, but Spain didn’t allow the match to open. La Roja protected the areas where it lost possession, limited opportunities Kylian Mbappé had spent the tournament punishing and forced France to create against a settled defense. Mbappé attempted three shots without putting one on target, while Ousmane Dembélé and Michael Olise never found enough room to change the game.

Spain won 2–0, recorded its sixth shutout in seven matches and advanced to its first World Cup final since lifting the trophy in 2010.

Now it waits for England or Argentina.

Diego Maradona’s Hand of God. David Beckham’s red card. Penalty shootouts and generations of supporters who can recall exactly where they were when these countries last met at a World Cup.

England and Argentina have never met in a World Cup semifinal or final, adding a new stage to a rivalry already filled with matches neither country has forgotten.

Argentina has spent much of this tournament living close to the edge. Lionel Scaloni’s team needed extra time to survive Cabo Verde, came back from two goals down against Egypt and required another extra-time push to defeat Switzerland 3–1 in the quarterfinal. Julián Álvarez broke the deadlock in the 112th minute before Lautaro Martínez finished the match.

England’s route hasn’t been any calmer either.

Thomas Tuchel’s team beat Croatia 4–2, drew with Ghana and defeated Panama to win its group. England then survived DR Congo, beat Mexico 3–2 and needed extra time against Norway. Jude Bellingham scored twice in the quarterfinal, including the goal that sent England into its third World Cup semifinal since 1990.

Neither team has reached this stage through dominant performances. Argentina has repeatedly needed extra time, while England has allowed knockout matches to become far more uncomfortable than its talent suggested they should be.

Both have survived anyway, and at this stage of the tournament, that ability may matter as much as playing well for 90 minutes.

A Rivalry With a Final Waiting on the Other Side

Thomas Tuchel has made three changes from the team that started against Norway.

Reece James replaces Ezri Konsa at right back, Djed Spence comes in for Nico O’Reilly on the left and Morgan Rogers starts ahead of Noni Madueke on the right wing. Jarell Quansah is suspended, while Jordan Henderson remains unavailable with a wrist injury. Declan Rice has recovered from illness, and James is fit after his recent hamstring issue.

The changes make England more adventurous. James gives England the option of stepping another player into midfield during buildup. He can move alongside Rice and Elliot Anderson and allow Bellingham to stay closer to Harry Kane.

The risk comes when possession changes hands. Lionel Messi naturally drifts toward that side of the field. An inverted James could find himself recovering toward his own goal rather than defending from a set position, especially when Argentina wins the ball before England’s midfield has time to reorganize.

Spence brings a different quality on the opposite side. His speed should help England defend open space, but he is making his first start since the Round of 16 and now has to manage one of Argentina’s most interesting tactical changes.

Scaloni has made one surprise move of his own. Giuliano Simeone replaces Rodrigo De Paul in Argentina’s only change from the quarterfinal. The decision removes one of Scaloni’s most trusted midfielders and replaces him with a more natural wide player.

Simeone can hold the right side or run beyond England’s defense, while Alexis Mac Allister moves narrower from the left to join Enzo Fernández and Leandro Paredes. Nicolás Tagliafico can then provide width on the opposite side.

Messi has the freedom to move toward whichever area England leaves most vulnerable. That structure could give Argentina several players in central areas without completely abandoning the width needed to stretch England’s defense. It also creates an big test for Spence, who will have to manage Simeone’s running and Messi drifting toward the same side.

Messi rarely stays in a fixed position. He begins near Álvarez, then moves toward whichever area England has temporarily left open.

Tuchel admitted he considered using a dedicated marker on Messi before deciding England would need a collective answer.

Rice and Anderson will carry that responsibility. Rice is the midfielder most capable of tracking Messi physically, but England cannot allow that to pull him away from every other problem Argentina creates. Fernández and Mac Allister are too dangerous to leave alone, and Álvarez will immediately attack behind England’s midfield whenever Messi moves toward the ball.

England cannot allow both midfielders to step toward Messi. One must engage him while the other protects the pass that follows.

At the other end, Bellingham can create a different problem for Argentina’s midfield.

Paredes is Argentina’s deepest midfielder, and Bellingham’s movement will repeatedly test his positioning. Bellingham will begin behind Kane, but he rarely stays there. When Kane drops away from Cristian Romero and Lisandro Martínez, Bellingham can attack the opening he leaves behind.

Rogers may be important to making those movements matter. His selection is one of Tuchel’s more surprising decisions. He has started only once during this World Cup, but he gives England a stronger ball carrier on the right. Argentina will try to trap possession near the touchline, where the sideline becomes another defender and Romero can step aggressively toward the ball.

Argentina wants to make England’s midfield choose between Messi and the players moving around him. England wants to move Argentina’s deepest defenders until Bellingham or Kane finds an opening. Neither team is likely to control those matchups for 90 minutes.

The history surrounding this match will become part of the conversation, but the players are not carrying memories of Maradona or Beckham onto the field. They are carrying their own.

England lost a World Cup semifinal in 2018, the Euros final in 2021 and another European final in 2024. This group has spent years getting close enough to believe, only to leave another tournament without the trophy.

Argentina’s pressure comes from what this group has already accomplished.

It is defending the World Cup with a 39-year-old captain who has already scored eight times during this tournament. Another victory would take Messi back to the final four years after he finally lifted the trophy that had defined so much of his career.

England is trying to end 60 years of waiting. Argentina is trying to extend one of the greatest periods in its national team’s history.

Player to Watch: Jude Bellingham

The questions surrounding him before the World Cup now feel distant. Bellingham has scored six goals during the tournament, including four across England’s past two knockout matches. His two goals against Mexico helped England survive the Round of 16. He scored twice again against Norway, including the extra-time winner that brought England to Atlanta.

His importance goes beyond the goals.

Bellingham will begin behind Kane, but Argentina cannot defend him with one defender. He can drop into midfield to help England play through pressure, move toward the left to combine with Anthony Gordon or arrive in the penalty area as Kane pulls a center back away.

Those movements will test Paredes and Argentina’s center backs throughout the match.

Argentina will also test his patience. It will make the game physical, contest second balls and interrupt transitions whenever England begins to build momentum. Bellingham plays with an edge that makes him capable of thriving in that environment, but England needs his intensity directed toward the game.

At 23, he is already playing in his fourth major tournament. He has experienced the penalties, the criticism and the feeling of leaving competitions before England believed it should. Now he has a chance to help take the country back to a World Cup final for the first time in 60 years.

Prediction

England has enough athleticism and attacking depth to make Argentina uncomfortable, especially as the match stretches. Bellingham’s movement should create problems, and Tuchel has more ways to change the attack from the bench.

I still trust Argentina when the original plan stops working.

Many of its most important players have already survived a World Cup final together. They know how to slow a match, get through a difficult stretch and find another way forward. Messi still gives them a player who can change everything in a few seconds.

England will have chances. I think Argentina takes one more.

Argentina 2–1 England after extra time.

Spain is already waiting in New Jersey.

England has spent years getting close. Argentina is trying to do this one more time.

By tonight, one of them will be on its way.

We have reached the point of the World Cup when every match feels almost too big to process.

France and Spain arrived as two of the tournament favorites. A month later, neither has trailed for a single second. They have played 12 matches between them, allowed only three goals and turned what should be the most unpredictable World Cup in history into a march toward one another.

France’s journey has been the strongest of the two. Les Bleus scored eight goals across wins over Senegal, Iraq and Norway before dismantling Sweden 3–0 in the Round of 32. The knockout rounds needed more patience, but the results have remained the same: a 1–0 win over Paraguay followed by a controlled 2–0 victory over Morocco. France has won all six matches in regulation and outscored its opponents 16–2.

Spain’s path has looked different. A scoreless draw against Cabo Verde on opening day raised a few eyebrows, but La Roja responded by beating Saudi Arabia and Uruguay to win its group. Austria was dismantled 3–0 before Spain survived two increasingly tense knockout matches. Mikel Merino scored in stoppage time to eliminate Portugal, then came off the bench again and struck in the 88th minute against Belgium.

Now they meet in Arlington.

I have spent the past month watching this World Cup from airport gates, hotel rooms, restaurants, stadium seats and whatever television I could find. Today, I get to walk into AT&T Stadium for a World Cup semifinal between France and Spain.

It still doesn’t feel real.

I grew up watching matches like this from thousands of miles away, imagining what the tension inside the stadium must feel like. Now I will be there when Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, Rodri, Ousmane Dembélé and the rest of these teams walk onto the field with a World Cup final waiting on the other side.

There are not many sporting events larger than this one.

One Match From the Final

This is the rare match that can be described as a meeting between the tournament’s best attack and best defense without exaggerating either side.

France’s front line has overwhelmed everyone it has faced. Mbappé enters the semifinal tied for the Golden Boot lead with eight goals, while Dembélé has scored five and Michael Olise leads the tournament with five assists. Didier Deschamps will complete the attack with Bradley Barcola, then turn toward a bench filled with players capable of changing the match.

Spain has conceded once.

Unai Simón went a World Cup-record 650 minutes without allowing a goal before Charles De Ketelaere headed Belgium’s equalizer in the quarterfinal. Even that goal required Belgium to escape Spain’s initial pressure, move quickly through midfield and attack before La Roja could regain its shape.

France has the exact collection of players needed to threaten Spain in those moments. That is where this match becomes fascinating.

Spain uses possession as a form of defense. Rodri and Fabián Ruiz circulate the ball until an opponent’s shape begins to stretch, while Dani Olmo drifts between the midfield and defensive lines. Pedro Porro and Marc Cucurella provide width, allowing Yamal and Álex Baena to move into more dangerous areas rather than remaining attached to the touchline.

Keeping the ball also prevents Mbappé, Dembélé and Olise from running toward goal.

Spain wants France’s forwards watching the ball and defending for long stretches. Sustaining that control against this France team is a different challenge. Les Bleus have enough athleticism in midfield and defense to survive without the ball, and they need only one poor Spanish pass to turn possession into panic.

France doesn’t want to spend the afternoon trapped inside its own half. Deschamps has said his team will contest control rather than simply sit deep and wait for counterattacks. That decision could make his midfield selection one of the most important calls of the match.

Aurélien Tchouaméni has returned to training after missing the victories over Paraguay and Morocco with a hamstring problem. Deschamps said he is available, although not completely recovered. Manu Koné and Adrien Rabiot performed well together against Morocco, giving France physicality and the ability to cover ground behind an aggressive attack. Warren Zaïre-Emery offers another option.

Starting Tchouaméni gives France a natural holding midfielder who can protect the center backs and help play through Spain’s press. Subbing on Koné alongside Rabiot would preserve the energy and mobility that carried Les Bleus through the quarterfinal. Neither choice offers much room for error against a Spanish midfield built to punish players who arrive half a second late.

Mbappé’s fitness created another concern after he left the Morocco match with an ankle issue and completed only part of France’s final training session. Deschamps has insisted his captain is fine and will start. Koné also left the quarterfinal with a minor knee problem but participated in France’s preparations.

Spain enters with almost everyone available. Nico Williams and Yeremy Pino have recovered from earlier injuries, although both will begin on the bench. Victor Muñoz is the only reported doubt.

Merino’s late goals against Portugal and Belgium have not necessarily earned him a starting place because his greatest value may come after the match begins to loosen.

His role has become one of Spain’s most reliable weapons. Defenders spend more than an hour chasing Yamal, Olmo and Mikel Oyarzabal before Merino arrives with fresh legs, physical strength and a midfielder’s sense of timing inside the penalty area. His winners have not felt accidental. Spain has repeatedly created the conditions for him to attack tired defenders late.

The widest areas may decide how long Spain remains comfortable. Yamal will face Barcelona teammate Jules Koundé on Spain’s right, while Mbappé will attack the space around Porro on the opposite side. Porro’s willingness to advance helps Spain create overloads, but every step forward leaves another yard for Mbappé to attack after a turnover.

France also has to decide how much defensive responsibility it can demand from its forwards. Spain will attempt to move the ball from side to side until Dembélé, Doué or Mbappé stops tracking a runner. Once that happens, Rodri can change the point of attack and create an overload near the touchline. France’s attacking freedom comes with a cost, especially against a team patient enough to keep searching for the same weakness.

There is history here, too.

Spain eliminated France from Euro 2024 and defeated Les Bleus again in the 2025 Nations League semifinals. France’s players have discussed those defeats, even as Deschamps has tried to separate them from this match. The circumstances are different, but the memory does not disappear simply because a coach says it should.

France is also chasing something larger. A victory would send Les Bleus to a third consecutive World Cup final, a feat previously accomplished only by Brazil and Germany. Spain has not returned to this stage since winning the tournament in 2010. The countries have met only once at a World Cup, when France won 3–1 in the 2006 Round of 16.

On Bastille Day, inside a stadium holding more than 80,000 people, another chapter will be written.

Player to Watch: Kylian Mbappé

Mbappé enters this semifinal tied for the Golden Boot lead with eight goals, carrying an ankle concern and standing 90 minutes away from reaching his third World Cup final before turning 28.

Spain may control the ball. Rodri and Pedri may dictate the rhythm. Yamal may produce the moment everyone remembers.

But no player on the field can change the entire feeling of the match as quickly as Mbappé.

His matchup with Porro could become the area France targets most aggressively. Spain’s right back is important to the way La Roja builds attacks, often pushing forward to create width while Yamal moves into more dangerous positions. Every time Porro advances, however, France will look at the space behind him.

Mbappé does not need much of it.

One loose pass in midfield can become a sprint toward goal within seconds. Spain has been almost impossible to break down during this tournament because opponents rarely reach its defensive line before the rest of the team recovers. Mbappé changes that. There may not be time to recover.

His fitness adds another layer to the match. Mbappé left the quarterfinal against Morocco with an ankle problem and did not complete all of France’s final training session, although Deschamps has said his captain is ready to play.

France needs him to be more than available.

This is the type of stage that has defined Mbappé’s career. He scored in the 2018 World Cup final, produced a hat trick in the 2022 final and has spent this tournament moving closer to records that once seemed untouchable.

Now Spain stands between him and another one.

I will be watching how often France can release him before Spain resets, how willing Porro is to continue pushing forward and whether Mbappé looks completely free when he opens into a sprint.

In a match filled with some of the best players in the world, he remains the one I would least want running toward my goal.

Prediction:

France’s attack is unlike anything Spain has faced during this tournament.

Belgium showed that Spain can be unsettled when an opponent escapes the press and reaches its back line quickly. France can produce those moments through several different players, and Mbappé has spent this World Cup punishing even the smallest defensive mistake.

Spain will control long portions of the match. Rodri and Fábian should give La Roja stretches when France struggles to recover the ball, and Yamal will create problems on the right. I still trust France’s ability to turn one recovery into a chance before Spain can reset.

This feels like a match that will be decided late, possibly after another appearance from Merino changes Spain’s shape. France has more ways to score, though, and its knockout-round defense has been nearly as impressive as the forwards receiving most of the attention.

France 2–1 Spain after extra time.

Whatever happens, I will be there.

A World Cup semifinal. France against Spain. Mbappé against Yamal. One match away from the final.

For years, this was the type of night I could only imagine. Today, I get to experience it.

Morocco eventually ran into a team that never allowed the match to become the kind of fight they wanted.

France won 2–0 yesterday, and unlike several other knockout matches we’ve watched so far, the result felt fair. Morocco defended well enough to keep the game scoreless through the opening half, but they created nothing in attack and never forced France to defend dangerous situations.

Kylian Mbappé had a penalty saved before scoring in the 60th minute. Ousmane Dembélé doubled the lead six minutes later after Morocco failed to clear another attack inside the box. France never needed to rush. They controlled possession, limited Morocco’s transitions and trusted their quality.

Morocco’s first shot on target did not come until the 83rd minute, which probably tells the story better than anything else.

Their tournament should still be remembered as another impressive run. Morocco eliminated the Netherlands, comfortably beat Canada and reached another World Cup quarterfinal after becoming the first African nation to reach the semifinals four years ago. Missing Ismael Saibari definitely hurt, but Morocco have reached the point where injuries and moral victories are no longer excuses.

Morocco genuinely believed they could beat France. France were simply better.

Mbappé now leads the tournament with eight goals, Dembélé continues to punish defenses from the right wing and Didier Deschamps’ side have still not conceded in the knockout rounds. France are back in the semifinals for a third consecutive World Cup and now wait for the winner of today’s quarterfinal.

Spain arrive without conceding a goal at this World Cup.

Belgium arrive after scoring 12 across their last three matches.

Can Belgium Finally Disrupt Spain?

Spain have played five matches at this World Cup without conceding a goal.

Belgium have become the second most dangerous attacking team left in the tournament.

That makes this one of the most fascinating matchups we’ve had so far.

Spain defend by keeping the ball. Rodri gives them control at the base of midfield, Fabián Ruiz gives Spain another midfielder willing to play forward, and their counterpress usually wins the ball back before opponents can properly think.

Portugal probably came closer than anyone else to showing how Spain can be frustrated. They stayed compact, matched Spain technically through midfield and forced the Round of 16 match into stoppage time before Mikel Merino came off the bench to score the winner. Even then, Spain never looked uncomfortable. That’s become one of their biggest strengths under Luis de la Fuente.

Belgium won’t try to win the same way Portugal did. Trying to out-possess Spain is usually how you lose to them.

Belgium are at their best when matches become stretched and chaotic. That’s exactly how they recovered from 2–0 down against Senegal before winning 3–2 in extra time, and it’s how they dismantled the United States 4–1 in the Round of 16. They need moments where Spain lose their shape.

Kevin De Bruyne returns to the starting lineup after missing Belgium’s previous two knockout matches, giving Rudi Garcia his most important creator back. Jérémy Doku also returns, while Charles De Ketelaere leads the attack after scoring twice against the United States.

It’s what makes Belgium different from everyone Spain have faced so far. Doku creates the advantage. De Bruyne exploits it. De Ketelaere finds the gaps left behind.

Spain’s job is making sure none of those players receive the ball while facing forward.

The United States struggled with that. The American midfield stepped toward the ball without enough protection behind it, leaving Belgium free to attack the next line. Spain are far better equipped to close those gaps.

Belgium know patient buildup probably won’t be enough. They have to make Spain turn and run. Belgium are also playing without a traditional striker from the start. De Ketelaere will move away from the center backs, De Bruyne will look for the space behind Rodri and Trossard will drift inside from the right. That movement may be more useful against Spain than simply asking Lukaku to battle Laporte and Cubarsí for 90 minutes.

Doku gives them the best chance of doing exactly that. Every time he isolates a defender, Spain has to react.

Belgium have become much more comfortable changing the way. Earlier in the tournament they tried to control matches with the ball. Lately they’ve been perfectly comfortable defending deeper, waiting for mistakes and attacking quickly once space opens up. Against Spain, that’s probably the smarter approach.

The problem is Belgium are missing the midfielder they’d want most for this game.

Amadou Onana suffered a torn ACL against the United States and will miss the remainder of the tournament. It removes Belgium’s best ball-winner and their most athletic midfielder. Belgium start Timothy Castagne, Nathan Ngoy, Brandon Mechele and Maxim De Cuyper across the back, a group that will spend the whole game defending Spain’s movement around the penalty area.

Nicolas Raskin and Youri Tielemans now have to handle the space Onana normally protects. Tielemans gives Belgium passing quality, while Raskin brings more energy and aggression, but neither offers the same combination of size, range and ball-winning. That could become the biggest matchup of the afternoon. If Rodri and Fabián Ruiz consistently receive the ball under little pressure, Spain will spend most of the afternoon attacking.

Spain have already shown they don’t need Nico Williams to play their game. Spain start Álex Baena on the left, with Dani Olmo playing centrally behind Mikel Oyarzabal. Baena may not attack defenders the same way Nico Williams does, but his movement gives Spain another player who can drift inside and combine through midfield. With Yeremy Pino still unavailable, Spain have spread the creativity across several players instead of relying on one winger.

That puts even more attention on Lamine Yamal. He has only scored once, but his influence goes beyond goals. Every opponent has placed extra defenders toward him, opening space elsewhere. Maxim De Cuyper gets the direct matchup with Yamal, but he will need support. Every extra defender Belgium send toward that side creates another passing lane for Olmo, Oyarzabal or Fabián Ruiz.

Spain’s depth may end up deciding this match. Merino already came off the bench to eliminate Portugal, and de la Fuente continues finding important goals from his substitutes. Belgium have been just as dangerous in that department. Their substitutes have scored five goals at this World Cup, the most of any nation, and Romelu Lukaku has embraced a bench role that allows him to attack tired defenses late.

Belgium always seem one transition away from changing a match.

Thibaut Courtois could also end up being Belgium’s most important player.

Spain are almost guaranteed to create moments where Belgium struggle to leave their own half. Courtois has the ability to keep those moments from turning into goals long enough for Belgium’s attack to find another opportunity.

History also leans Spain’s way. They are unbeaten in 11 meetings with Belgium dating back to 1980, winning nine of them, and extended their overall unbeaten run to 15 matches after eliminating Portugal.

Those results won’t decide today’s match.

They do reinforce one thing, though. Spain know exactly who they are, and no team left in this tournament has forced them away from that identity.

Player to Watch: Kevin De Bruyne

Belgium become a completely different team when De Bruyne plays.

Doku may be their best dribbler and De Ketelaere has become one of the tournament’s breakout performers, but De Bruyne remains the player most capable of changing a match with one pass.

Very few teams have forced Rodri to defend behind him at this World Cup. Belgium need De Bruyne to be the first.

If he can pull Spain’s midfield out of position and find runners before Spain reorganize, Belgium have a genuine chance of ending the longest defensive streak left in the tournament.

Prediction: Spain 2–1 Belgium

I think Belgium finally become the first team to score against Spain at this World Cup.

De Bruyne gives them a creator unlike anyone Spain have faced in the knockout rounds, Doku only needs one successful dribble to change a game and Lukaku remains one of the tournament’s best options off the bench.

I still trust Spain more. They’ve been the most complete team in the tournament from the opening match through the quarterfinals. Rodri and Fabián Ruiz will gradually take control of midfield, Yamal will keep Belgium’s left side busy and Spain have already shown they don’t need to dominate the scoreboard early to win.

Belgium will make this uncomfortable. Spain eventually find the moment they’ve found all tournament.

A France-Spain semifinal feels like the matchup this World Cup has been building toward.

Tuesday was brutal in two completely different ways.

Argentina looked gone for most of the afternoon. Egypt held a 2–0 lead, Lionel Messi had missed a penalty, and for a while it felt like the defending champions were about to follow Brazil, Germany and Portugal out of the tournament. Then Argentina did what Argentina have done for most of the Messi era: they found just enough belief, just enough pressure and just enough chaos to drag themselves back into the match. Cristian Romero started the comeback, Messi equalized, and Enzo Fernández won it in stoppage time to turn a disaster into another quarterfinal.

Egypt should still leave with pride, even if that will not make the ending easier to accept.

They gave Argentina real problems, forced the world champions into one of the wildest comebacks of the tournament and made Mohamed Salah’s World Cup run feel like something more meaningful than just a nice story. They also left with real frustration. Mostafa Ziko had a goal ruled out for a foul in the buildup, Egypt wanted a penalty after Julián Álvarez’s challenge on Salah, and Enzo Fernández scored the winner shortly after that sequence.

FIFA defended the decisions. Egypt clearly did not see it that way. This one will hurt for a while. They made Argentina suffer.

Then Colombia played Switzerland, and I still haven’t fully recovered.

The match itself was the kind of game that slowly ruins your afternoon. Colombia had chances. Gustavo Puerta hit one with real violence. Jhon Lucumí put a header off the bar. The crowd in Vancouver sounded like a Colombia home match, and for a long time it felt like one moment would finally break Switzerland’s structure. It never came.

Then came penalties, because the sport always needs one more way to make Colombia fans miserable. Cucho Hernández had his penalty saved, Davinson Sánchez hit the bar, and Ruben Vargas buried the decisive kick for Switzerland. Colombia lost 4–3 in the shootout after 120 scoreless minutes.

I hadn’t done predictions for Colombia games during this tournament, and yesterday was the reason. You can analyze the midfield, the wide areas, the absences and the matchups all you want. Once Colombia reach penalties, the analysis turns into pacing around the room and negotiating with every higher power you can think of.

Switzerland move on to face Argentina. Colombia go home with a tournament that was good, but not as long as it should have been. That is going to annoy me for a while.

Now Day 28 gives us a good one. France against Morocco. A quarterfinal in Foxborough. A rematch of the 2022 semifinal. One team that still looks like the safest bet in the field, and one team that has spent two World Cups making people stop treating them like a surprise.

Morocco wanted another chance at France. They have it now.

Morocco Get Their Rematch

This is not 2022 again, even if it is impossible to separate the matchup from that night.

France beat Morocco in the semifinal four years ago, but Morocco are not entering this match as a cinderella underdog anymore. They eliminated the Netherlands on penalties, handled Canada 3–0 and reached another World Cup quarterfinal with a team that looks comfortable in uncomfortable matches.

France are the kind of opponent that punishes teams for needing everything to go perfectly. Morocco do not need perfect. They need discipline, patience and a few moments where their right side can turn defense into pressure.

The Ismael Saibari injury is the biggest problem for Morocco. He has been one of their best players in this tournament, not just because of the goals, but because of how much he gives them between lines. Losing him takes away one of Morocco’s cleanest connectors and puts more responsibility on Brahim Díaz, Bilal El Khannouss and the wide players to create the same kind of threat.

That makes Achraf Hakimi even more important.

Hakimi is already one of Morocco’s main routes into games, but without Saibari, his timing on the right side becomes even more valuable. France will know the ball is coming there. That does not mean stopping it is simple. Hakimi can overlap, underlap, switch the angle of attack and give Morocco a way to move up the field without needing long spells of possession.

France’s left side has to manage that carefully. Lucas Digne gives Didier Deschamps a more traditional fullback profile, but whoever plays ahead of him has to help enough without allowing Morocco to pull France’s midfield too far toward the touchline. Morocco are dangerous when Hakimi creates the first problem and someone else attacks the space it opens.

France’s advantage is obvious. They have Kylian Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise, Désiré Doué and enough attacking options that every defensive adjustment creates another issue somewhere else. Paraguay made France work in the Round of 16, slowed the game down and kept it tight, but Mbappé still solved it from the penalty spot. That has been France’s tournament in one sentence. They just need one action that feels unfair.

The midfield battle is where Morocco can make this interesting. Azzedine Ounahi has to give Morocco calm in possession, Sofyan Amrabat has to protect the back line without getting dragged too deep, and El Khannouss has to help replace some of what Saibari normally provides. Morocco cannot spend the whole match clearing the ball and waiting for one counter. France are too good at punishing that style.

At the same time, Morocco should not turn this into a possession contest just to prove a point. Their best version is balanced: compact without being passive, brave enough to play through pressure, and direct enough to punish France when the fullbacks step high.

That is where Brahim Díaz becomes so important. Morocco are not using a traditional striker, which means Díaz has to connect everything. He has to give Morocco a way out when they break pressure, combine quickly with Hakimi and El Khannouss, and make France’s center backs uncomfortable by drifting into spaces instead of simply occupying them.

France may also have to think about game management more than usual. The quarterfinal is the last match before yellow cards are wiped, and players such as Michael Olise are one booking away from missing a potential semifinal. That does not mean France will play scared, but it is another little tournament detail in a match that already has enough tension.

I keep coming back to one question: can Morocco make France defend the match rather than simply manage it?

Paraguay made France uncomfortable, but not dangerous enough. Morocco have more ways to hurt France than Paraguay did, especially through Hakimi, Brahim and El Khannouss. They also have the emotional edge of knowing exactly what this matchup means. France ended their 2022 run. Morocco do not need anyone to explain the stakes.

The problem is that France are still France.

That sounds lazy, but it is not. It means they can be average for most of the game and still win. It means Mbappé can change a match before it has fully developed. It means Dembélé can spend 70 minutes frustrating a fullback and then create the one chance that decides everything.

Morocco can absolutely make this tense. France are just very hard to actually kill off.

Player to Watch: Achraf Hakimi

Mbappé is the obvious answer, but Hakimi feels like the player who tells us whether Morocco can make this game look different from 2022.

Morocco need territory, pressure relievers and moments where France’s back line has to turn toward its own goal. Hakimi gives them all three. His ability to carry the ball forward and combine quickly on the right side may be Morocco’s best way to avoid getting trapped in their own half.

He also has the emotional layer of facing Mbappé and France again, which makes the matchup even better. Hakimi has to be one of Morocco’s best players for this upset to feel real.

Prediction: France 2–1 Morocco

I want Morocco to make this uncomfortable, and I think they will.

They are good enough in transition for France to cruise through this match. Hakimi will create problems, Brahim will find pockets and Ounahi will make at least one moment in the box feel dangerous.

Saibari’s absence is the difference for me. Morocco can still compete without him, but France have too many ways to create chances and lots of individual quality once the match starts opening up. Mbappé gets his moment, Morocco answer, and France eventually find the second action that sends them into another semifinal.

Morocco are not a surprise anymore. France still have the game-changers.

I was at Portugal–Spain in Dallas, and for most of the night it felt like the kind of match waiting for one mistake, one run or one loose touch to decide everything. Portugal had moments, Spain controlled more of the rhythm, and Cristiano Ronaldo spent most of the night trying to find one final World Cup opening against a team that refused to give him much space.

Then Mikel Merino arrived. Spain won 1–0 in stoppage time, Ronaldo’s final World Cup ended in front of us, and AT&T Stadium had that strange feeling where everyone knew they had watched something historic but nobody really knew what to do with it yet.

I went in expecting Ronaldo against Yamal to feel like a passing-of-the-torch game. It ended up feeling quieter than that. More painful too. One career did not get the dramatic ending. Another Spanish team kept moving.

That is the World Cup. It does not always give legends the ending everyone came to see.

The United States got hit with the other kind of pain. Belgium beat the U.S. 4–1 in Seattle, and there is not much use pretending it was closer than that. Malik Tillman gave the Americans a moment with his free kick, but Belgium were sharper, cleaner and more ruthless whenever the U.S. made mistakes. Charles De Ketelaere was excellent, Romelu Lukaku finished it late, and Christian Pulisic leaving with an ankle injury made the night feel even worse.

That result will probably sit with people for a while. A home World Cup was supposed to be the moment the U.S. took another step.

In some ways, it did. They won a knockout game, gave the country memorable moments and made the tournament feel bigger here. But Belgium also showed the distance that still exists between having a talented team and having a team ready to beat elite European opponents in the biggest matches.

Day 27 closes out the Round of 16.

Argentina face Egypt in Atlanta, which means Lionel Messi and Mohamed Salah share a World Cup knockout stage. Then Colombia meet Switzerland in Vancouver, which means I will spend the entire afternoon pretending I am calm.

I will not be calm. That’s how these Colombia days go.

Messi and Salah Share a Knockout Stage

This matchup sells itself because of the names, but the actual tactics are interesting for different reasons.

Argentina are still Argentina. They survived Cape Verde in extra time, which was much closer than any Messi fan wanted it to be, but surviving uncomfortable matches is part of why this team has stayed near the top for so long. Lionel Scaloni’s side does not always need to overwhelm teams.

It usually needs enough patience and one player who can make a normal moment feel unfair. That player is still Lionel Messi.

What makes this version of Argentina so difficult is how much patience he gives the rest of the team. Argentina do not rush when a game becomes tense. They can keep recycling possession, wait for Egypt’s midfield to shift half a step too far, and trust Messi to turn one small opening into something dangerous.

Egypt got here differently. They needed penalties to get past Australia, and Mohamed Salah has been working his way back from a hamstring issue that has shaped almost everything about their tournament. Argentina cannot treat him like a normal wide forward because he only needs one quick pass, one defender leaning the wrong way or one transition chance to sentence the match.

It is impossible not to frame the match this way. Argentina have Messi. Egypt have Salah. It captures the emotional weight of the match. Salah has carried so much of Egypt’s football history that this game feels like more than a Round of 16 tie for them.

That is where this becomes tricky for Argentina. They will have more of the ball, but Egypt are comfortable defending and waiting for the match to offer them counter-attack moments. Hossam Hassan’s side need to keep it close, close central areas and make Argentina defend set pieces and counters.

Argentina’s midfield will decide the rhythm. Alexis Mac Allister, Rodrigo De Paul and Enzo Fernández give Scaloni enough control to keep Egypt pinned, but the key is patience without becoming slow. Cape Verde showed that Argentina can be dragged into nervous games when opponents stay compact and play physically.

Egypt’s problem is that defending Argentina requires constant focus in areas where one mistake becomes an easy chance. Messi still controls the emotional pace of Argentina’s attack. When he pauses, everyone else waits. When he accelerates the pass, the whole team moves with him. That is a hard rhythm to defend for 90 minutes.

Player to Watch: Mohamed Salah

I am going with Salah here because Egypt’s entire upset case depends on how much he can still change the match physically.

Argentina will have the ball. Egypt will have stretches where they are defending deep and waiting for one opportunity to turn pressure into opportunity. Salah is the player who can make those moments feel real instead of hopeful.

He needs one moment where Argentina’s defensive line is not perfectly set.

Prediction: Argentina 2–1 Egypt

Egypt will make this more difficult than people expect. Salah’s presence alone gives them a plan into the match, and their defensive shape should keep Argentina from turning this into a comfortable early afternoon.

Argentina still have more control, more tournament experience and too many ways to manage difficult games. Messi controls the rhythm, Argentina find their moments and Egypt’s run ends with a respectable but frustrating loss.

Colombia Cannot Let Switzerland Turn This Into Their Match

This is the one that will ruin my day until kickoff. Colombia have been good enough in this tournament to make people believe. That is usually where the stress starts.

They topped a group with Portugal, DR Congo and Uzbekistan, then beat Ghana 1–0 in a match that felt more comfortable in the final score than it did while watching it. Jhon Arias scored early, Colombia defended well, and the final whistle mattered more than style points. That is fine in a knockout tournament. Nobody gives trophies for winning beautifully in the Round of 32.

Switzerland are exactly the kind of opponent that makes this uncomfortable. They are organized, experienced and very good at turning matches into something tighter than opponents want.

Colombia cannot let Switzerland make this feel slow.

Néstor Lorenzo’s team are at their best when Luis Díaz and Jhon Arias can receive early, attack defenders and force the opponent’s back line to make panicked decisions. James Rodríguez is still the player who connects those moments. He does not need to play like it is 2014. He just needs to find the pocket, lift his head and make the pass that changes the entire attack.

James was forced off at halftime against Ghana, but reports indicate he is not under a major injury and is expected to start. That matters because Colombia’s attack looks different when he is available from the beginning. Díaz can create chaos, Arias can carry pressure and Gustavo Puerta can give Colombia energy in midfield, but James gives Colombia the pause before the punch.

Jhon Córdoba’s injury changes the shape of the attack. Córdoba has been ruled out for the rest of the tournament after suffering an adductor tear against Ghana. Luis Javier Suárez is expected to step into the central striker role, and that is not a small adjustment.

Córdoba gives Colombia power, depth and a physical penalty-box prescence. Suárez brings movement and confidence, especially after coming off the bench and helping create the winner against Ghana, but Colombia will need him to occupy Akanji and Nico Elvedi long enough for Díaz, James and Arias to work around him.

That is where Gustavo Puerta becomes important.

Puerta is not the name most casual viewers will circle first. That will be Díaz, James, Xhaka or Akanji.

But in a match like this, Colombia need someone with his energy, positioning and willingness to play forward quickly. It will matter a lot against a Swiss midfield that wants to slow the game down and make Colombia defend without the ball.

Xhaka will make this a game of control. Jefferson Lerma and Puerta have to make it a game of pressure, second balls and quicker forward passes. Colombia do not need to play recklessly, but they cannot become passive. Letting Switzerland dictate tempo for long periods is how the game starts slipping into Swiss comfort.

That is my biggest fear. Switzerland making the match feel smaller, slower and more irritating until one set piece or one loose clearance changes everything.

There is also Swiss team news to watch. Johan Manzambi, one of Switzerland’s breakout players in this tournament, left training early with a knee issue and has been reported out by some sources. Ruben Vargas and Djibril Sow also left training early, while Switzerland have been monitoring other fitness concerns around the squad. That does not suddenly make Switzerland easy to play against, but it does remove some of the attacking variety and running power that made them dangerous earlier in the tournament.

Colombia have the better attacking players. Switzerland have the kind of structure that makes better attacking players prove it.

I hate that sentence because I know exactly what it means.

Player to Watch: Gustavo Puerta

I love this kid. I swear he has five lungs. He will be critical today.

Luis Díaz is Colombia’s pressure release. James is the connector. Arias gives Colombia another player who can carry and combine. But Puerta is the player who will tell us whether Colombia can keep Switzerland from controlling the match.

Against Xhaka, every midfield action matters. Puerta has to close passing lanes, win second balls and move the ball forward quickly enough that Colombia do not spend the afternoon trapped in Switzerland’s rhythm.

It’s usually not glamorous. Puerta makes it glamorous.

It is exactly the kind of job that decides knockout games.

Prediction:

You’re funny.

What I will say is this: Colombia have enough quality to win this match, but Switzerland are built to make it uncomfortable. Xhaka will slow the game down, Akanji will organize the back line and Colombia will probably have moments where possession does not turn into enough clear chances.

Colombia need Díaz to create separation, James to find the right pass and Puerta to keep the midfield from becoming Switzerland’s comfort zone.

I will not be normal during any of it.

Last night gave us one upset and one of the matches of the tournament.

Norway knocked Brazil out of the World Cup 2–1, and the match somehow felt exactly like what everyone feared when Erling Haaland appeared on Brazil’s side of the bracket. Brazil had more talent, more cheers and probably more of the chances. Norway had Haaland, and that was enough.

Then came the Azteca.

England and Mexico delivered the kind of knockout match that reminds you why this tournament keeps destroying prediction brackets. Jude Bellingham scored twice, Harry Kane converted a penalty and Mexico spent the final half hour throwing numbers forward after Jarell Quansah’s red card changed the game completely.

By the end of it, Kane could barely speak during his post-match interview and Bellingham looked like someone had asked him to immediately play another 90 minutes at altitude. That is usually a pretty good indication that everyone involved left something on the field.

Even politics somehow found its way into the story. Donald Trump publicly praised Kane after the match and became part of the conversation surrounding Folarin Balogun’s suspension at almost exactly the same time, which feels like a sentence that only makes sense during a World Cup in the United States.

Today’s schedule gives us Portugal against Spain in Dallas and the United States against Belgium in Seattle.

I will be at Portugal–Spain.

Cristiano Ronaldo against Lamine Yamal in what Ronaldo has confirmed will be his final World Cup is not the sort of match I am capable of watching objectively. I am going to make a serious effort to approach it like a reporter.

That effort will probably last until kickoff.

The Iberian Derby Gets a World Cup Stage

I don’t think I have looked forward to a match more than this one all tournament.

The easy version of this preview is Ronaldo against Yamal. The more interesting version is what happens in the middle of the field.

Spain have become one of the most complete teams in the tournament. Since the opening draw with Cape Verde, they have not conceded a goal, they have controlled matches almost entirely through possession and spacing, and they have looked comfortable defending without the ball when opponents force them into those moments.

Portugal offer a very different challenge.

Roberto Martínez’s side are comfortable playing through pressure rather than around it. Vitinha and João Neves are both willing to receive with defenders tight to their backs, Bruno Fernandes constantly looks for vertical passes before defenses settle, and Bernardo Silva’s movement inside creates overloads that can drag midfielders away from Rodri.

That may be the entire match.

Portugal’s biggest advantage comes when Vitinha can receive, turn and play forward before Spain’s press arrives. Whoever wins that exchange probably controls the evening.

Spain want Lamine Yamal isolated against defenders as often as possible, but Portugal may have the best answer left in the tournament. Nuno Mendes is healthy, fresh and one of the few fullbacks in the world with the pace and physicality to survive repeated one-on-one situations against him.

Yamal himself has called Mendes the toughest opponent he has faced. That does not mean Yamal disappears from the match. It means he may have to find different ways to influence it.

Portugal will also believe there is space behind Spain’s fullbacks. João Cancelo and Rafael Leão attacking transitions against a high Spanish line is a matchup Portugal should welcome, especially if Spain are missing Nico Williams again and ask more of Marc Cucurella in possession. Spain continue to monitor Williams while Yeremy Pino remains unavailable.

The emotional side of this game is obvious.

One of the greatest international careers football has ever seen is trying to buy itself another week.

The football side is pretty good too.

Player to Watch: Vitinha

Everyone will start talking about Ronaldo. Most of them will end talking about Yamal.

Vitinha may end up deciding the match anyway.

When Portugal play their best football, it usually starts with him escaping pressure and turning midfield into open space for Bruno and Leão to attack. If Spain force him backward all afternoon, Portugal become reactive rather than proactive.

That is exactly the version of this game Spain want.

Prediction: Portugal 2–1 Spain

Spain may be the best team left in the tournament. I am still picking Portugal.

Part of that is emotional and I am comfortable admitting it. Ronaldo in his final World Cup against Spain in Dallas feels almost too perfect a setup for football not to do something ridiculous.

The tactical reasons exist too. Portugal have more depth off the bench, more flexibility if the match changes shape and a midfield that matches Spain’s better than most teams can.

Ronaldo gets his moment. Bruno creates one. Portugal survive one of the matches of the tournament.

Can The United States Make Belgium Defend Backwards?

Seattle is going to be ridiculous for this. The atmosphere matters.

The football matters more.

Belgium remain one of the most talented teams left in the field, but they have looked vulnerable whenever opponents have forced their back line to turn and run toward its own goal. Senegal created problems through wide players and direct running, and the United States have to ask similar questions.

Balogun’s availability changes the entire conversation.

His suspension has officially been lifted, Belgium’s federation remains furious and FIFA somehow managed to turn a straightforward disciplinary decision into one of the biggest stories of the knockout stage.

Whatever anyone thinks about the politics of it, the football impact is obvious. The United States are better with him.

Balogun stretches defenses in a way no other American forward currently can. That matters because Christian Pulisic becomes much more dangerous when center backs are worried about runs behind them rather than stepping aggressively into midfield.

That battle is where I keep coming back. I have written some version of this sentence throughout the tournament, but I trust midfields in knockout football.

Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie and Malik Tillman give the United States balance, ball-winning and progression. Belgium have Kevin De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans, which means this may simply become a fight over who receives facing forward and who receives with someone immediately arriving on their back.

Adams probably spends most of the evening chasing De Bruyne’s passing lanes. McKennie probably spends most of it trying to make Belgium’s midfield slightly more miserable than it wants to be.

Both jobs matter.

Belgium will likely have more possession. The United States may actually prefer that.

Pochettino’s team have looked their most dangerous when they can defend aggressively, recover the ball and attack before opponents settle into shape. Belgium’s fullbacks have been vulnerable in transition and Pulisic attacking those spaces is probably the clearest route to an American goal.

That is where Seattle starts becoming relevant. Because fast teams become faster when the crowd starts helping every transition feel urgent.

Player to Watch: Tyler Adams

Adams will quietly decide the match.

If he can keep De Bruyne receiving with his back to goal rather than facing the American defense, the United States have a real chance of controlling the game without controlling possession.

That is exactly the type of midfielder I trust in tournaments.

Prediction: United States 2–1 Belgium

This American squad feels built for this kind of match.

Belgium have the bigger names and the cleaner structure. The United States have the legs in midfield, the transition threat out wide and now, thanks to Balogun’s availability, the striker who makes the entire attack fit together.

Pulisic creates one. Balogun scores one. Seattle gets the night it wants.

Morocco are not a surprise anymore. That feels like the biggest takeaway from yesterday.

Canada started with energy, pressed well and made the first half very uncomfortable, but Morocco handled it and then did what experienced tournament teams do. They waited for the match to turn, punished open space and turned a dangerous game into a 3–0 win that looked much cleaner on the scoreboard than it actually was.

Azzedine Ounahi scored twice, Soufiane Rahimi added another, and Morocco became the first team into the quarterfinals. Canada leave with a historic tournament, a knockout win and a better sense of what this team can become before 2030. Morocco continues with another quarterfinal and another reminder that they are one of the best teams left.

France followed with the kind of win that didn’t need to be beautiful. Paraguay made the match physical, slow and frustrating, which is exactly what they did to Germany. France were missing Aurélien Tchouaméni, dealt with the heat in Philadelphia and never really found the free-flowing version of themselves. Then Kylian Mbappé stepped up from the penalty spot and solved the game anyway.

That is usually the difference with France. They just need one moment where the opponent blinks.

Now Day 25 gives us two very different games. Brazil face Norway in New Jersey, which means Vinícius Júnior and Erling Haaland share the same knockout stage. Then Mexico host England at the Azteca, where altitude, noise, pressure and history all become part of the tactical preview.

I already missed on Ecuador at the Azteca once. Apparently I learned nothing, because I still think that stadium can change a match.

Brazil Meet The Haaland Problem

Brazil against Norway sounds simple until you actually start thinking about it. Brazil have the better squad, the better tournament history and more ways to win the match.

Norway have Erling Haaland. He’s not a small thing to put on the other side of the argument.

Carlo Ancelotti’s team survived Japan in the Round of 32 thanks to Gabriel Martinelli’s stoppage-time winner, and that match (in theory) gave Brazil a useful warning. Japan forced them to solve problems. They did not let Brazil drift through the game on reputation.

The difference is that Norway’s danger is much more obvious. Haaland has been one of the best players in the world, and Norway’s entire structure makes sense because of him. Ståle Solbakken needs his team to get Haaland service in areas where one touch can become a goal. Martin Ødegaard gives Norway the passing quality to make that happen, while Antonio Nusa adds speed around him.

Casemiro, Bruno Guimarães and the center backs have a tall task. Brazil have defenders familiar with Haaland from club football, but knowing what is coming and stopping it are not the same thing.

Brazil, of course, have their own problems to offer.

Vinícius Júnior has looked like the player Brazil needed him to become. He makes every opponent defend with one eye on the left wing. Neymar’s fitness has been monitored throughout the tournament, but Carlo Ancelotti has suggested he can play a larger role now. Raphinha has returned to training and could be available from the bench, while Lucas Paquetá is expected to miss out with a hamstring strain. That absence matters more than it might seem.

Brazil can replace quality with quality, but Paquetá gives them a mix of work rate, combination play and timing. Without him, Brazil may need more from Bruno Guimarães and Rayan between the lines. The midfield cannot become too passive because Norway will happily let Brazil have the ball in safe areas and wait for one mistake to launch Haaland.

Brazil will create chances. Norway will create fewer, but theirs will feel terrifying every time Haaland gets near the penalty area. That is what makes him different. He can be quiet for 30 minutes and still make the entire match feel like it is leaning toward him.

As someone who usually enjoys teams that make favorites solve uncomfortable problems, I understand the Norway argument. I just think Brazil have more answers.

Player to Watch: Vinícius Júnior

Haaland is the obvious headline, but Vinícius may decide whether Brazil control this game or simply trade moments with Norway.

Once the block starts shifting toward him, Brazil’s central players find more space and the far-side winger becomes more dangerous.

Brazil need Vinícius to make Norway defend more than just the scoreboard.

Prediction: Brazil 2–1 Norway

Ødegaard will create chances, Nusa will find space in transition and Haaland is probably getting a moment somewhere along the way because that is what he does.

I still trust Brazil’s depth more than Norway’s.

Vinícius feels ready for one of those performances where every touch changes the defense, Guimarães gives Brazil another creator between the lines and Ancelotti simply has more answers available once the match starts changing.

Harland gets his goal. Brazil gets the result.

England Have A Mountain To Climb. Literally.

This is the match of the day.

Brazil–Norway has the bigger individual matchup because of Haaland, but Mexico–England has the better setting. A World Cup knockout match at the Azteca. Mexico coming off its first knockout win in 40 years. England walking into altitude, noise, weather concerns and a fan base that has already made life uncomfortable for opponents before kickoff.

That is part of the game.

Mexico have been efficient, disciplined and defensively excellent throughout the tournament. They beat Ecuador 2–0 in the Round of 32, kept another clean sheet and finally removed a burden that had been hanging over them since 1986. Javier Aguirre’s team overwhelms opponents with constant pressing waves. Teams cannot breathe against Mexico. They wait for the moments when the stadium starts pushing the match toward them.

Thomas Tuchel has a right-back problem again. Reece James has been managing fitness issues, Jarell Quansah has returned to training but has not been fully settled, and Djed Spence is now a doubt with a calf issue. England can adjust, but knockout matches at the Azteca are not where you want to be solving these problems.

The altitude is real too. England have already had to answer strange questions about preparation, including the whole Viagra rumor, which is one of those World Cup subplots that makes you wonder how we got here. Tuchel dismissed it, but the point remains: playing at the Azteca is different. The ball travels differently. Recovery feels different. The crowd feels closer than it probably is. Mexico will try to make all of that matter.

Raúl Jiménez gives them experience and penalty-box presence. Julián Quiñones gives them another direct attacking option. Érik Lira and Luis Romo can make midfield uncomfortable, and Gilberto Mora has added a calmness that still feels ridiculous for a teenager in this environment. Mexico need to keep the match close long enough for every English touch to start feeling heavier.

England’s answer has to come through midfield control. Jude Bellingham, Declan Rice and whichever attacking players Tuchel trusts around Harry Kane have to make the game feel less emotional. England cannot spend 90 minutes reacting to the stadium. They need to make Mexico chase the ball, where Saka or Rashford attack isolated defenders and where Kane receives with runners around him instead of dropping too deep just to help England breathe.

I know England should probably win.

I also know “should” has not exactly been a reliable word in this tournament.

Player to Watch: Jude Bellingham

Bellingham is England’s best chance of turning a chaotic environment into a football match they can control.

He gives them ball-carrying, late runs and the kind of edge that matters when a game starts feeling emotional. Mexico will try to make this a fight for rhythm. Bellingham is one of the few players England have who can win that fight while still creating something going forward.

England need him to be the adult in the room.

Prediction: England 2–1 Mexico

England usually makes these matches harder than they need to be.

Mexico have the crowd, the altitude and a team that knows exactly how it wants to play. The Azteca matters. I still believe that, even after missing on Ecuador a few days ago.

England have the better midfield and, in Jude Bellingham, probably the player most capable of slowing the game down when everything around him starts speeding up.

Kane finds a goal, Bellingham controls enough of the match and England survive one of the most difficult environments left in the tournament.

It will not be comfortable. It probably shouldn’t be.

Football is not for the lighthearted. Yesterday proved it.

Egypt and Australia gave us a match that made everyone involved age five years. Emam Ashour scored early, Australia equalized through a Mohamed Hany own goal, and then the match slowly turned into penalty-shootout tension. Mohamed Salah was not at his sharpest in open play, but he still stepped up in the shootout, scored his penalty and helped Egypt reach the Round of 16 for the first time after a 4–2 win on penalties. It was the moment Egypt had been chasing for decades.

Argentina nearly gave the tournament its biggest shock.

Cape Verde did not just hang around against the defending champions. They kept answering.

Messi scored, Cape Verde responded. Argentina scored again, Cape Verde responded again. Eventually, a late own goal in extra time sent Argentina through 3–2, but Cape Verde left the tournament with one of the best stories of this World Cup.

They were supposed to be happy just to get here. Instead, they pushed Argentina into a match that made the champions look around for answers.

Then Colombia played Ghana, which means I spent most of the night pretending to be normal.

I was not normal.

Jhon Arias scored early, Colombia defended well, Luis Díaz had a goal ruled out for offside, and the final whistle felt much better than the actual match did. Ghana made Colombia work, especially with their physicality and defensive shape, but Colombia handled the game with enough control to move on. It was not perfect, and Jhon Córdoba’s early injury is something to watch, but Colombia are in the Round of 16.

That is all I needed from the night.

Now the tournament changes again. Canada against Morocco opens the day in Houston, followed by Paraguay against France in Philadelphia.

One co-host trying to keep making history. One Moroccan team that has started feeling like a problem. One Paraguay side that already sent Germany home. One French team that still looks like the best in the tournament.

Not a bad way to start the next round.

Canada’s Run Meets Morocco’s Machine

Canada have already done something that matters. They reached the knockout stage. They won a World Cup knockout game. They gave their home tournament a moment that has cemented themselves in Canadian sports history.

Now comes the hard part.

Morocco are not South Africa. They are not a team Canada can simply press into panic for 90 minutes. At some point, we have to stop treating Morocco like a great story and start treating them like one of the best teams left in the tournament.

Canada under Jesse Marsch want energy, pressure and verticality. They want the game to feel fast. They want Jonathan David attacking space, Stephen Eustáquio arriving into second balls and Alphonso Davies stretching the field whenever he is on it. Davies is on the bench after returning from injury, and his role may define how aggressive Canada can be. Even when he is not at full match fitness, he changes how opponents defend because very few players in the world can cover ground like he does.

Canada still have a major absence in midfield with Ismaël Koné out after his leg injury. That matters against Morocco because Koné’s ball-carrying and physical presence would have helped Canada escape pressure. Without him, Eustáquio has even more responsibility to keep Canada connected.

Morocco will test that connection constantly.

Mohamed Ouahbi’s team play with what he has described as organized chaos, and that phrase actually fits them. Morocco are disciplined without being predictable. Ismael Saibari has been one of the best midfielders in the tournament, and Brahim Díaz can create the kind of chaos that makes a defensive shape start guessing. That is dangerous for Canada.

Marsch’s teams are aggressive by nature, but Morocco are very good at punishing aggression that arrives half a step late. Canada have to press with timing, compactness and cover behind the ball. Morocco are too good technically to be bothered by pressure that isn’t coordinated.

The Hakimi matchup is probably the first place to watch.

Canada need Richie Laryea, Davies or whoever ends up dealing with that side to survive more than one action. Hakimi forces wingers to track deeper than they want and creates space inside by constantly threatening outside.

That is why Morocco feel so difficult to play against right now. They can go wide through Hakimi, central through Saibari, between lines through Díaz or into transition through quick passes after winning the ball.

Canada’s best chance is making the match less clean. Not reckless. Not desperate. Just uncomfortable. David has to be clinical with limited touches and Canada’s midfield has to turn second balls into attacks before Morocco can reset.

As someone who has probably spent too much of this tournament backing teams that make favorites uncomfortable, I understand the appeal of Canada here. The energy, Davies back in the picture, David in form, all of it makes sense.

I just keep coming back to Morocco’s balance. They look like a team that knows exactly what kind of tournament they are in.

Player to Watch: Achraf Hakimi

Hakimi is Morocco’s starboy, creator and safety all at once.

Against Canada, his role matters because he can shift the entire field even from right-back. When he gets forward, Canada’s left side has to defend deeper. When Canada lose the ball, Hakimi is one of the first players Morocco will look for to turn pressure into runs. Few fullbacks in the world affect a match this much without needing to dominate the ball.

Prediction: Morocco 2–1 Canada

Canada will make this difficult.

They have lots of energy, belief and too much attacking quality for Morocco to cruise through the match. Davies will give Canada a real weapon when needed, and David only needs one clean chance to change the whole game.

Morocco still have more high quality players, which means more ways to control the match.

Canada’s run has been special. Morocco’s run continues.

France Meet The Team That Does Not Care About Names

Paraguay already ruined one European giant’s tournament. France knows that better than anyone.

Gustavo Alfaro’s side knocked out Germany in the Round of 32 by dragging the match into their world. It was physical, tense, frustrating and exactly the game Germany did not want to play. Paraguay defended well, competed for everything and survived long enough to win on penalties.

It’s an identity. France are a different problem, though.

They have been the most convincing team in the tournament. Kylian Mbappé has looked sharp, Ousmane Dembélé has given them another elite wide threat, and Didier Deschamps’ side have controlled matches without always needing to dominate every minute. France can play fast, slow, direct or patient. That is what separates them everyone else.

The biggest team news is Aurélien Tchouaméni’s will not play due to a thigh injury. That matters because Tchouaméni gives France defensive balance and progression from midfield. Manu Koné is expected to step in, and while France have the depth to survive almost any injury, replacing Tchouaméni against a Paraguay team that thrives on duels and second balls is not a small detail. Paraguay will notice.

Miguel Almirón and Julio Enciso give Paraguay enough attacking quality to make France defend real moments, not just random counters. Diego Gómez gives them running power from midfield, and their set pieces will matter. Against Germany, Paraguay looked comfortable turning every recovery into a chance to breathe, reorganize and make the favorite defend something uncomfortable.

France have to avoid treating this like an easy win.

That sounds obvious, but it is the entire match. Paraguay are not going to win by looking better on a graphic. They are going to win by making France rush passes, absorb contact, defend corners and slowly start to feel like the match is tighter than it should be.

The heat in Philadelphia could also become part of the game. Deschamps has already talked about how extreme conditions can affect performance, and this does not feel like a match where either team will have unlimited energy to press for 90 minutes. That probably helps Paraguay in some ways because they want the game to be slower and more divided. It also helps France because they have the individual quality to decide a slower match with one action.

That is the problem with playing France. You can have the right plan for 70 minutes and still watch Mbappé turn one bad angle into a goal.

Paraguay will not be scared. After Germany, why would they be? But France have more pace, more depth and more match-winners than any opponent Paraguay have faced so far.

I respect Paraguay too much now to dismiss them. I still think France are the worst possible version of a favorite to try this against.

Player to Watch: Kylian Mbappé

Sometimes the obvious answer is still the correct one.

Mbappé changes how teams defend before the ball even gets to him. Fullbacks drop earlier. Center backs open their hips sooner. Midfielders stop pressing as aggressively because they know one pass behind them can become a sprint they are not winning.

Paraguay can make the match ugly. Mbappé can make ugly irrelevant.

Prediction: France 2–0 Paraguay

Paraguay will make France work.

They are too organized, too physical and too confident after beating Germany for this to become easy. The Tchouaméni absence gives Paraguay a real area to test, especially around second balls and midfield duels.

France still have too much.

Mbappé finds one, Dembélé helps create another, and France move into the quarterfinals without giving Paraguay the chaos they need.

I went into Portugal vs. Croatia expecting to watch two legends fight for one more World Cup night.

I left thinking about VAR, Gonçalo Ramos and how weird it feels when a stadium realizes in real time that one of these tournament careers might be ending.

Portugal beat Croatia 2–1 in Toronto, and the match somehow managed to feel emotional, messy, historic and extremely modern all at once. Cristiano Ronaldo scored the first World Cup knockout goal of his career from the spot, Gonçalo Ramos headed in the winner in stoppage time, and Croatia had a late equalizer wiped away after one of those offside decisions that makes everyone in the stadium look around for confirmation. Luka Modrić walked off with Croatia eliminated, Ronaldo walked off with Portugal headed to face Spain, and I walked out feeling like I had watched one era keep going while another probably came to a close.

That was a pretty good first World Cup knockout match to see in person.

Earlier in the day, Spain made Austria look much less annoying than I expected. Mikel Oyarzabal scored twice, Pedro Porro added another, and Spain won 3–0 without allowing a shot on target. That stands out more than the scoreline. Austria were supposed to make Spain uncomfortable with pressure, duels and tempo. Spain turned the match into their own rhythm anyway.

Then came Switzerland, which is where my Algeria pick aged badly. I thought Algeria’s emotion and energy could tilt the match in Vancouver. Switzerland basically responded by reminding everyone that structure works better than vibes. Breel Embolo scored early, Dan Ndoye added another after halftime, and Granit Xhaka helped turn the match into exactly the kind of controlled match Switzerland wanted.

So yes, Algeria over Switzerland did not exactly cover itself in glory. I will take that one too.

The Round of 32 ends today with three very different games. Australia and Egypt meet in Dallas with both countries chasing a rare World Cup knockout win. Argentina face Cape Verde in Miami, where the defending champions meet the best story left in the tournament. Then Colombia and Ghana close the night in Kansas City, which means I will spend the entire day pretending to be calm and then absolutely not being calm by kickoff.

That is usually how Colombia knockout days go.

A Chance Neither Team Wants to Waste

This is probably the least glamorous match of the day. It doesn’t make it the least interesting.

Australia and Egypt are both looking at this game as a real opportunity to do something historic. The Socceroos have made knockout rounds before, but chances to advance deeper into a World Cup do not come around often. Egypt have Mohamed Salah, a proud football history and still very little World Cup knockout success to show for it.

Tony Popovic’s side is physical. They will happily settle for set pieces and long balls. They do not need to dominate possession to create pressure.

Hossam Hassan’s team have more technical quality in the final third, and now they know Mohamed Salah will be part of it from the start after some doubts about his fitness.

Australia can defend deep and make Egypt work for every touch around the box, but preparing for Salah and stopping him are usually two different things. Fullbacks hesitate before stepping forward. Center backs shade toward his side. Midfielders think twice before pressing too aggressively because one pass into space can become a sprint they have already lost.

Omar Marmoush, Trezeguet and the midfield runners around him have to punish the attention Salah creates. Australia will happily commit extra numbers toward Egypt’s captain if nobody else makes them pay for it.

Australia’s defensive approach will likely be to stay compact around the box and make Egypt’s wide players beat them repeatedly rather than giving Salah easy lanes inside. Harry Souttar’s aerial presence matters here, both defensively and on attacking set pieces. In a knockout match that could come down to one chance, Australia will not apologize for making the game physical.

Player to Watch: Mohamed Salah

There is no need to overthink this one. Salah is starting. That changes the conversation.

Australia can defend well and still spend the afternoon worrying about where he is standing, where he is moving and where he might be five seconds from now.

Egypt need him to make one or two moments feel bigger than everything around them.

Prediction: Egypt 1–0 Australia

Australia will make this uncomfortable. They are too organized, too physical and too dangerous on set pieces for Egypt to ease past this game.

I still trust Egypt to find one cleaner attacking moment. Maybe it is Salah. Maybe it comes from the attention Salah creates. Egypt have just enough attacking quality to survive a match that probably will not be pretty.

The Champions Meet the Best Story Left

Cape Verde have already won, in a way.

That does not mean they are satisfied. It just means this World Cup has already given them something nobody can take away. A country making its first World Cup, drawing Spain and Uruguay, reaching the knockouts and then getting Lionel Messi’s Argentina in Miami is the kind of story that sounds fake.

However, Argentina are not here for someone else’s fairytale.

Lionel Scaloni has spent the buildup making sure his team does not treat Cape Verde like a formality, and that is probably the right move. Argentina won all three group matches, rotated players when needed and still looked like the team with the clearest experience of tournament football. They know when to slow a match down, when to press, when to foul, when to wait and when to let Messi decide something that nobody else can decide.

That is still the biggest problem for Cape Verde. Messi may not cover the same ground he once did, but he still bends matches around him. Defenders take smaller steps when he receives. Midfielders stop looking over their shoulders because they are staring at him. Goalkeepers cheat early on free kicks and then regret it. Cape Verde can defend well for 85 minutes and still lose because Messi found a few seconds that nobody else saw.

This isn’t analysis. That is just what watching Argentina has become.

Cape Verde’s best chance is making this a low-energy game for as long as possible. They have already shown they can frustrate elite teams. Their draw with Spain was not an accident, and neither was the way they competed against Uruguay. They defend with pride and are comfortable letting opponents have the ball without letting them have the match.

Argentina will try to pull them apart with patience. Alexis Mac Allister, Rodrigo De Paul and Enzo Fernández give Argentina enough control to keep Cape Verde pinned back, but the key is tempo. Too slow, and Cape Verde can stay compact. Too rushed, and Argentina start forcing passes into traffic.

Argentina are at their best when they make teams defend for so long that eventually somebody loses concentration for a second.

Cristian Romero’s return is one of the bigger boosts Argentina received this week. After missing the Jordan match with a knee issue, he returned to full training and appears to be available if Scaloni wants him.

For Cape Verde, set pieces and counters are the plan. They need to make Argentina defend long throws, free kicks, corners and any loose transition chance with total concentration. That is where underdogs live.

I want Cape Verde to make this interesting because stories like theirs are why the expanded World Cup can work. I also know Argentina are very good at ending stories before they get too romantic.

Player to Watch: Lionel Messi

It is Messi. Sometimes there is no need to be different just for the sake of being different.

Argentina have stars everywhere, but Messi is still the player who turns a normal possession into a tournament moment. Against a compact Cape Verde block, his passing angles, set-piece delivery and ability to find space at walking speed will matter more than Argentina’s possession numbers.

Cape Verde can defend well and still spend the whole night chasing his decisions.

Prediction: Argentina 2–0 Cape Verde

Cape Verde will not embarrass themselves. They are too organized and too proud for that. Argentina should still have too much control, too much experience and too much Messi.

The champions move on, and Cape Verde leave with one of the best stories of the tournament.

Colombia Cannot Let This Become Ghana’s Game

This is the one that will ruin my ability to watch the earlier games like a normal person.

Colombia against Ghana in a World Cup knockout match sounds fun until you remember Colombia are involved and suddenly every harmless pass across the back line feels like a personal attack.

Colombia have been one of the better teams in the tournament. They topped a group with Portugal, DR Congo and Uzbekistan, defended well, created enough chances and looked like a team that understands exactly what Néstor Lorenzo wants from them.

That does not mean this is comfortable. Ghana are not built for comfortable.

They frustrated England, competed throughout Group L and arrive with Antoine Semenyo available, which is a major plus. Mohammed Kudus was already missing from the tournament because of injury, but Ghana still have enough pace, strength and grit to turn this match into something Colombia will have to earn.

Colombia want to create wide isolations for Luis Díaz and Jhon Arias, then let James Rodríguez find the pass that connects everything. James just needs to appear in the right pocket at the right time and make the pass nobody else saw. That has basically been his Colombia career in one sentence.

Luis Díaz is the player Ghana will worry about most. He gives Colombia the one thing every knockout team needs: a way to make something happen when the match gets tight. Díaz can create space for everyone else, even when he is not scoring.

Ghana’s plan will be physicality and compactness. Thomas Partey, if he starts in midfield, gives them experience and ball-winning. Jordan Ayew gives them leadership and the ability to slow the game down when needed. Semenyo gives them the transition threat that can make Colombia’s fullbacks think twice before pushing too high.

Colombia cannot let this become a game of broken rhythm. That is Ghana’s comfort zone. Fouls, pauses, long clearances, second balls, counters, 50-50 duels. Ghana will not mind any of it.

Colombia need emotional control as much as tactical control. They have to move the ball quickly without rushing, press aggressively without overcommitting and avoid the kind of cheap turnovers that turn a manageable game into a track meet.

Jefferson Lerma and Gustavo Puerta matter here because Colombia need midfield balance. Lerma gives them physical presence and protection. Puerta gives them carrying ability and a little bit of youthful edge, which I always appreciate in a midfielder as long as it does not become a yellow-card fest.

The good news is Colombia have no major injury or suspension concerns reported. The bad news is that knockout soccer does not really care how healthy you are once the game starts getting weird.

Player to Watch: Luis Díaz

Díaz is Colombia’s pressure release. When the game gets tight, Colombia need someone who can carry the ball 30 yards, beat a defender or turn a dead possession into a set piece. Díaz gives them that, and Ghana will have to decide how much help they send toward his side.

Send too little, and he can decide the match. Send too much, and James starts finding the space that opens behind the shift. Ghana have to manage that all night.

Prediction:

Nope.

What I will say is this: Colombia have looked like one of the better teams in the tournament. There has been more control to their performances, more patience and more answers when opponents try to drag them into a game they do not want to play.

Tonight is the test. Ghana will make Colombia earn everything. They defend well, compete physically and have enough to turn one mistake into an entirely different match.

The opportunity on the other side is enormous. Switzerland are already waiting in the quarterfinals bracket, and suddenly a path that felt theoretical a week ago feels very real. That is why this match feels bigger than a Round of 32 game.

This is usually where the questions start. Colombia get 90 minutes to answer them.

Knockout tournaments have a way of making every win look different.

England survived the scare. Belgium survived the chaos. The United States survived the pressure of a home knockout match and turned it into one of the cleanest nights of their tournament.

England’s 2–1 win over DR Congo was not comfortable, and honestly, that almost felt predictable. DR Congo played with freedom and forced Thomas Tuchel’s side into the emotional match England fans have spent decades fearing. Harry Kane eventually found the equalizer, England pushed through the second half and avoided what would have been one of the tournament’s biggest shocks. They will face Mexico, but nobody is pretending that was easy.

Belgium’s win over Senegal was even stranger.

Senegal led 2–0 late and looked like they were about to validate almost everything I wrote about them yesterday. They were physical, direct, organized and brave enough to make Belgium look uncomfortable for most of the match. Then Belgium did the thing veteran tournament teams sometimes do. Romelu Lukaku scored, Youri Tielemans equalized, and then Tielemans won it with the latest goal in World Cup history after a VAR-reviewed penalty decision. Senegal deserved better than that ending, but deserving better is not the same as surviving here.

Then came the U.S. This is where I want to leave space for my West Franklin Media recap, because that match deserves more than a quick paragraph here.

West Franklin Media

Five Takeaways from the USMNT's Historic Night Against Bosnia and Herzegovina

Photo: Bryan Berlin/Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0…

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15 days ago · 1 like · Joshua Renza

The short version: the U.S. beat Bosnia 2–0, Folarin Balogun scored, Malik Tillman added the second, and the Americans moved into the Round of 16 even after Balogun’s controversial red card changed the final third of the match. They got the job done, but the red card matters. Balogun will miss the Belgium match, and suddenly one of the biggest questions around the U.S. attack becomes who replaces the player who just gave them the goal they needed. That is how quickly knockout tournaments change.

Day 22 brings a different set of matches. Spain open against Austria in Los Angeles, Portugal and Croatia meet in Toronto in the match I will be attending, and Switzerland face Algeria in Vancouver to close the night.

I will be honest. It is hard not to look past the first two games toward Portugal-Croatia.

Cristiano Ronaldo. Luka Modrić. A knockout match in Toronto. Two teams that have lived through very different versions of tournament pressure. One of them is going home before the Round of 16. It’s a pretty good reason to make the trip.

Spain’s Control Meets Austria’s Press

Spain have spent this tournament looking like one of the few teams that can control a match without making it feel slow. That matters against Austria.

Luis de la Fuente’s team are unbeaten in 34 matches, have conceded very little and enter the Round of 32 as heavy favorites. Spain move opponents around, create overloads on the wings and trust players like Pedri, Rodri, Dani Olmo and Lamine Yamal to find the pass that changes the angle of the attack.

Austria are not built to allow this. Ralf Rangnick’s teams tend to have very little interest in letting opponents settle. Austria press aggressively and try to turn matches into repetitive battles. That makes this matchup more interesting than the odds suggest, because Austria’s best chance is not sitting deep for 90 minutes and hoping Spain miss. Their best chance is making Spain’s buildup feel rushed.

It’s easier said than done. Rodri is the problem.

When Spain can find him, the match starts bending towards his rhythm. He gives Spain the ability to restart attacks when needed. Austria need Konrad Laimer and Marcel Sabitzer to make that first pass into midfield uncomfortable, because Spain become much harder to stop once Rodri and Pedri are facing forward.

The player everyone will talk about is Lamine Yamal. Rangnick has already made it clear that limiting his space is one of Austria’s biggest priorities. Yamal does not need much separation to create danger. Opponents can either send help and leave space elsewhere, or leave him one-on-one and hope your left-back has the night of his life.

Spain do have attacking availability questions to manage. Nico Williams appears unlikely to feature, while Yeremy Pino and Victor Muñoz have both dealt with injuries during the buildup to this match. This puts more responsibility on Álex Baena, Mikel Oyarzabal and Yamal to carry the front line.

Austria have their own concern with Phillipp Mwene out, while Marko Arnautović’s fitness has been monitored.

Spain are the better team. Austria are the kind of opponent that makes favorites earn the label.

Player to Watch: Lamine Yamal

It’s obvious.

Austria’s entire defensive plan will be shaped around preventing him from receiving in space, which says everything about his influence at 18 years old. He changes the shape of Spain’s attack before he even touches the ball. Fullbacks get cautious, midfielders slide over and the far-side defenders start worrying about what opens when everyone leans toward him.

That is superstar gravity, even if it still feels ridiculous to say that about a teenager.

Prediction: Spain 2–0 Austria

Austria will make this more physical than Spain would prefer, especially in the opening half.

However, Spain have too much control in midfield and too many ways to create chances. Yamal gets involved, Rodri keeps Spain from losing control, and La Roja move on without needing to turn it into a classic.

Ronaldo, Modrić and One More Night

Portugal against Croatia in a World Cup knockout match already sells itself, but the Ronaldo-Modrić storyline makes it feel even bigger. Two Ballon d’Or winners. Two former teammates who have carried their countries through different eras. Two careers that have refused to follow normal aging curves. It is not hard to get sentimental about it.

The actual football might be even better than the nostalgia.

Portugal have no fresh injury concerns and come into this match with one of the deepest squads left in the tournament. Roberto Martínez rotated during the group stage, but the structure is familiar by now. Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva give Portugal control, Rafael Leão gives them a direct threat on the left, and Cristiano Ronaldo remains the penalty-box reference point that still changes how center backs defend.

Ronaldo does not need to dominate every possession to influence the match. He bothers defenders, attacks crosses and forces opponents to defend the box with a little less comfort than they would like. Against Croatia, that could matter because Zlatko Dalić’s team have already shown moments of defensive vulnerability in this tournament.

Croatia are still Croatia, though, which means writing them off usually goes wrong.

They were not convincing in the group stage, but they found a way through. That has basically become a national tournament identity at this point. Luka Modrić still controls matches in ways that do not always show up immediately on a stat sheet. Mateo Kovačić gives them experience in midfield and Ivan Perišić remains one of those players who always seems to appear in the right place during World Cups.

Portugal want Bruno and Bernardo receiving between Croatia’s lines, forcing Modrić and Brozović to defend larger spaces than they want to cover at this stage of their careers. Croatia want enough time for Modrić to turn the match into something slower and more familiar.

As someone who grew up watching these names define international tournaments, I am trying not to turn this into a goodbye column before the game even starts. But it is impossible to ignore what is at stake. Ronaldo and Modrić may not both get many more World Cup knockout nights. One of them is probably leaving Toronto with the kind of final image nobody wants to write yet.

Portugal’s wide players may decide how comfortable Croatia can actually become. Leão attacking space against Croatia’s right side is a matchup Portugal should like. João Cancelo’s positioning can also pull Croatia’s midfield out of shape, especially when Bernardo drifts inside and overloads that half-space.

Croatia’s best chance comes from making the game messy in their own controlled way. That sounds contradictory, but it is not. They want fouls, set pieces and moments where Portugal start forcing the final pass. Portugal are dangerous when they play quickly. They become easier to defend when every attack turns into one extra touch. We saw this against Colombia.

I will be in the stadium, so I am probably going to overthink every Ronaldo shot, every Modrić touch and every moment where the crowd realizes this might be one of those games people remember because of who was on the field. Not a bad way to spend a Thursday night.

Player to Watch: Bruno Fernandes

Ronaldo and Modrić will dominate the conversation, but Bruno may decide the match.

Portugal need someone who can turn possession into actual chances before Croatia get into their defensive shape. Bruno does that better than anyone in this team. His passing range, late runs and willingness to risk a difficult pass give Portugal the edge they need against a Croatia side that would love to slow everything down.

When Bruno is sharp, Portugal stop looking predictable very quickly.

Prediction: Portugal 2–1 Croatia

This feels close because Croatia know how to make knockout matches uncomfortable.

Portugal have more variety, more pace in wide areas and a midfield that can hurt Croatia if the game opens up. Croatia have Modrić, tournament experience and the stubbornness to make everyone uncomfortable until the final whistle.

I think Portugal have just enough. Ronaldo gets his moment, Bruno controls the rhythm, and Croatia finally run out of tournament lives.

Algeria Get Their Vancouver Moment

This deserves more attention than it will get.

Switzerland are experienced playing tight matches. Algeria are the kind of team that can turn one bad defensive transition into a goal before you realize the match has changed.

Vancouver should be a scene too.

One of my favorite things about this World Cup in North America has been watching supposedly neutral venues slowly choose sides over the course of a match. Switzerland already played in Vancouver during the group stage, but Algeria travel with a supporter base that has made itself heard throughout this tournament. This feels like one of those nights where the atmosphere becomes part of the game.

Switzerland know exactly who they are. Murat Yakin’s side do not give opponents the open match they want. The issue is that Algeria have enough individual quality to disrupt that structure.

Riyad Mahrez remains the obvious headline name, but that does not make him any easier to stop.

At this stage of his career, Mahrez influences matches with timing. One touch to slow the game down, one pass through a defensive line or one moment where a defender gives him slightly more space than he should.

Algeria are more balanced than many people realize. Amine Gouiri gives them movement, Houssem Aouar gives them progression through midfield and Mohamed Amoura gives them the pace to punish teams that get stretched chasing the match.

That combination makes Algeria difficult to prepare for. They can play through midfield when matches slow down, but they are equally comfortable turning one turnover into a sprint toward goal.

Switzerland spend ninety minutes trying to remove chaos from matches. Algeria will spend ninety minutes trying to find it. Switzerland make opponents earn every inch of the field. Algeria make opponents survive every transition.

That feels like an entertaining combination in a knockout match.

Player to Watch: Riyad Mahrez

Mahrez may only need one moment.

Switzerland are disciplined enough to limit chances for long stretches. The problem is that Mahrez has spent most of his career proving that long moments without the ball don’t matter.

The pass, the touch or the shot arrives eventually.

Prediction: Algeria 2–1 Switzerland

I keep trying to talk myself into Switzerland. Then I come back to Algeria.

The Swiss have more structure, more tournament experience and probably more control of possession. Algeria have the kind of unpredictability that can undo a defensive structure in one sequence.

I have spent most of this tournament trusting teams that know how to make favorites uncomfortable. I am going to keep doing it here.

Mahrez finds the moment. Algeria find the quarterfinals.

Yesterday belonged to the teams that handled pressure best.

Mexico finally put an end to four decades of frustration in the knockout rounds, controlling the match at the Azteca and beating Ecuador 2–0 to reach the Round of 16. Norway survived exactly the kind of physical battle they expected against Ivory Coast before Erling Haaland eventually did what Erling Haaland usually does in tournaments like this and found the winner late. France somehow managed to be the least dramatic team of the day, which might be the most frightening thing about them right now. Kylian Mbappé scored twice, Bradley Barcola added another, and Sweden never really managed to make the match uncomfortable.

So yes, the Ecuador prediction aged badly. I will take that one.

It felt like a reminder that knockout football punishes hesitance faster than almost anything else in sport. Mexico trusted their structure, Norway trusted their stars and France trusted the ridiculous amount of attacking talent they keep rolling onto the field.

Day 21 brings a different challenge. England, Belgium and the United States all enter as favorites, but the knockout rounds have already shown that being the better team on paper and surviving ninety minutes are not always the same thing.

England’s Right Side Has a Problem

England should win this match. That sentence felt safer a week ago.

Thomas Tuchel’s side won Group L and avoided the kind of group-stage chaos that can derail a tournament before the knockouts even settle in. On paper, England have the stronger squad, more attacking options and considerably more tournament experience.

However, England’s history in matches like this is a little less convincing.

Maybe this is just years of watching England tournaments talking, but matches like this always make me nervous on their behalf.

DR Congo arrive with lots of freedom and very little pressure. They pushed Portugal, competed well against Colombia and came from behind to beat Uzbekistan for their first World Cup victory. Yoane Wissa has been one of the stories of the tournament, and Sébastien Desabre’s side have become increasingly comfortable on the counter-attack.

England’s biggest issue sits at right back.

Reece James is unavailable, Jarell Quansah is dealing with an ankle issue and Tino Livramento has not recovered in time for the knockout rounds. Djed Spence is expected to start, and while he gives England pace, building a new partnership on that side of the field in a knockout match is not ideal.

Declan Rice returning to midfield changes the shape of the game for England.

Rice allows Jude Bellingham to play higher and more aggressively between the lines, which may end up deciding the entire match. England need Bellingham receiving in dangerous areas rather than dropping deep, and they need Bukayo Saka isolated against defenders instead of receiving with two players already waiting for him.

Harry Kane will eventually get touches. The more important question is whether England can create enough movement around him to pull DR Congo’s defensive block out of position.

As much as I enjoy underdogs making favorites uncomfortable, this feels slightly beyond DR Congo’s ceiling.

Player to Watch: Jude Bellingham

Bellingham changes the speed of England’s football.

Kane scores goals, Rice stabilizes matches and Saka creates width, but Bellingham decides whether England feel cautious or dangerous. When he starts carrying the ball forward and arriving late in the penalty area, England suddenly look far more difficult to contain.

DR Congo would probably prefer this match to become compact and physical, with England circulating possession in front of them rather than through them. Bellingham is the player most capable of breaking that rhythm with one carry through midfield or one run beyond Kane. If England find themselves frustrated after an hour, this is usually where he starts taking the match personally.

Prediction: England 2–1 DR Congo

DR Congo have enough pace and confidence to make England work for this.

England have spent the last decade turning comfortable situations into uncomfortable ones often enough that the anxiety never fully disappears.

England still have too much quality through midfield and too many solutions in the final third to let this become another Germany or Netherlands story.

Bellingham finds space, Kane eventually finds a goal, and England survive the first hour of tension that seems to follow them everywhere they go.

Belgium Have The Names. Senegal Have The Personality.

Belgium have spent most of this tournament trying to prove this generation belongs in the conversation.

Senegal doesn’t seem interested in conversations.

Belgium looked far more convincing in the 5–1 win over New Zealand, and Jeremy Doku’s return gives them a different way of attacking. Kevin De Bruyne remains the creative center of everything they do, while Doku and Leandro Trossard give Belgium width and unpredictability that simply were not there earlier in the tournament.

The problem is that Senegal feel built for exactly this sort of game.

Pape Matar Sarr and Pape Gueye bring energy and aggression in midfield, while Ismaïla Sarr and Nicolas Jackson can turn recoveries into attacks before Belgium have time to organize defensively. Senegal can become dangerous in a few passes.

As someone who has spent years watching Senegal look slightly better than their tournament finishes suggest, this feels like the type of matchup that finally swings their way.

I also have a soft spot for teams that make favorites solve football problems instead of simply trying to survive them. Senegal tend to do exactly that.

The Édouard Mendy injury matters.

Losing a goalkeeper with his experience changes the feel of a knockout match, and Mory Diaw will almost certainly see more work than he would prefer against Belgium’s attack.

Still, the midfield battle keeps bringing me back to Senegal.

Belgium want De Bruyne receiving with time and space to turn. Senegal have spent the tournament making sure creators never receive either. If De Bruyne spends the evening receiving with his back to goal instead of facing it, Belgium’s attack starts looking much more ordinary.

That produces the kind of midfield battle I enjoy watching.

Player to Watch: Ismaïla Sarr

De Bruyne will get the headlines. Sarr may decide the game.

His ability to attack space quickly and force defenders into recovery runs gives Senegal a chance every time Belgium lose their shape. The more Belgium push numbers forward, the more dangerous Sarr becomes.

One clean touch from Sarr can turn a controlled possession sequence into a foot race toward goal. If Belgium spend the evening asking questions in possession, Sarr may end up providing the answer in transition.

Prediction: Senegal 2–1 Belgium

I keep coming back to Senegal here.

Belgium have more tournament pedigree, more recognizable names and probably more possession. Senegal feel better suited for the kind of match this is likely to become.

Pape Matar Sarr and Pape Gueye give Senegal enough aggression to disrupt Belgium’s rhythm in midfield, while Sarr and Jackson can turn recoveries into attacks before Belgium have time to settle defensively.

I think Senegal are exactly the type of team this tournament has rewarded so far.

The U.S. Cannot Let This Become A Waiting Game

This is the kind of match the United States wanted and feared at the same time. They avoided Brazil, France and Argentina. That sounds like good news until you remember what comes next.

They are at home, they are favored and anything short of advancing will feel like failure.

Bosnia and Herzegovina are dangerous because they can play freely. Edin Džeko gives them experience and penalty-box IQ, while the players around him have enough technical quality to make the United States defend for longer stretches than the crowd may want.

The Christian Pulisic decision feels increasingly straightforward.

Start him.

Pulisic says he feels ready after recovering from the calf issue that kept him out of the Australia match, and the U.S. attack simply looks different when he is on the field. Defenders shift toward him, spaces appear elsewhere and set pieces immediately become more dangerous.

In a knockout game at home, there is very little value in saving your best player for later.

Tyler Adams matters almost as much.

I’ve probably written some version of this sentence ten times during the tournament, but in knockout football I tend to trust midfields. Adams gives the United States leadership, ball-winning and the ability to stop counters before they become emergencies. Weston McKennie provides physicality, while Folarin Balogun gives the United States a forward willing to run beyond defenders and force back lines to make decisions they would rather avoid.

Bosnia know exactly what they want the match to become. Protect the middle. Keep the score close. Let Džeko turn one chance into a goal.

The United States cannot spend an hour waiting for the game to happen to them.

Antonee Robinson has to provide width on the left. Tim Weah has to threaten in behind on the right. The United States are at their best when the field feels stretched and the midfield can arrive into gaps rather than forcing everything through crowded central spaces.

Player to Watch: Christian Pulisic

This is why Pulisic matters. He changes the math.

Defenders cheat toward him. Midfields shift toward him. Fullbacks hesitate because they know one mistake can become a sprint toward goal.

Few American players have ever carried that kind of weight.

Maybe that pressure is unfair. It is also the reality of being the face of soccer in the United States during a home World Cup.

Prediction: United States 2–1 Bosnia and Herzegovina

I think Bosnia make this uncomfortable.

Džeko is too smart, the occasion is too big and the pressure on the United States is too obvious for this to become an easy night.

Maybe this is just years of watching U.S. tournaments talking, but these are exactly the kinds of nights that tend to age everyone involved.

The U.S. still have more athleticism, more attacking variety and a crowd that should matter if the game starts tilting in their favor.

Pulisic gets involved. McKennie has a moment. The United States survive.

European teams probably won’t remember Day 19 very fondly.

Brazil needed a stoppage-time winner from Gabriel Martinelli to avoid becoming the tournament’s biggest upset so far. Germany dominated possession, generated chances and still found themselves losing a World Cup penalty shootout for the first time after Paraguay dragged them into the exact match Gustavo Alfaro wanted. Morocco and the Netherlands then delivered one of the best games of the tournament, with Yassine Bounou once again becoming the hero in a shootout that felt destined for him the moment extra time ended.

I picked Morocco yesterday, so I will allow myself one paragraph of victory laps before moving on.

Day 20 brings three more Round of 32 matches and three very different battles. Norway and Ivory Coast meet in Dallas in what could become the most physical match of the round. France try to avoid becoming the next heavyweight to fall against Sweden, while Mexico and Ecuador close the evening at the Azteca.

Germany are gone. Netherlands are gone. Japan nearly took Brazil with them. Everyone left should probably be paying attention.

Power Against Power

This game will be decided by which midfield handles chaos better.

Ivory Coast and Norway arrive through with different football cultures but surprisingly similar strengths. Both are comfortable attacking directly, both are physical, and both have players capable of turning any ordinary moments into goals.

Norway enter with the biggest names.

Erling Haaland has already scored four goals in the tournament, while Martin Ødegaard returns after being rested in the final group match. The pair solve different problems for Norway. Haaland forces center backs to retreat earlier and fullbacks to become more conservative with their positioning. Ødegaard gives Norway creativity when matches become congested.

Ivory Coast’s challenge begins before the final pass ever reaches Haaland.

Franck Kessié and the midfield have to stop Norway’s progression instead of preparing to defend crosses and through balls. The less Ødegaard receives between the lines, the more predictable Norway become.

Yan Diomande has emerged as one of the breakout players of the tournament, while Nicolas Pépé gives them enough pace to attack space quickly. Amad Diallo gives Ivory Coast another way to hurt Norway, his work rate and willingness to battle for 50/50s reflect the grit this team has played with throughout the tournament.

Norway are expected to be without Julian Ryerson, which removes one of their stronger defenders in wide areas. Ivory Coast are missing Wilfried Singo, but Evan Ndicka helps stabilize the defense against Haaland.

Norway probably have the two best players on the field. That usually matters.

Player to Watch: Martin Ødegaard

Haaland will dominate the headlines. Ødegaard will probably decide whether Norway control the match or simply react to it.

His ability to receive under pressure and create chances turns Norway from a direct team into a more complete one. Against a midfield as physical and aggressive as Ivory Coast’s, that becomes important.

Prediction: Norway 2–1 Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast have enough athleticism and transition speed to make this uncomfortable.

I still trust the combination of Haaland and Ødegaard to create the moments that matter most. Norway have looked more comfortable as the tournament has progressed, and there is something about knockout rounds that tends to reward teams with players capable of solving problems on their own.

France’s Attack Meets Sweden’s Structure

France have been the cleanest team in the tournament so far.

They won all three group matches, scored freely and looked capable of controlling games in different ways. Some teams need matches to follow a specific script. France seem comfortable writing new ones as they go. That flexibility is what makes them difficult to prepare for.

Kylian Mbappé remains the obvious headline, but Ousmane Dembélé’s form has added another problem entirely. Defenses already focus on Mbappé because they have little choice. Dembélé arrives after scoring the second-fastest World Cup hat trick in tournament history against Norway, and defenses can no longer afford to tilt entirely toward Mbappé.

Sweden’s challenge is obvious, but not impossible.

Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres give them two forwards capable of turning defensive stops into attacks and forcing defenders into physical battles. Against France, those moments matter because just surviving without the ball for ninety minutes doesn’t work.

France’s counter-press may become the deciding factor.

When Didier Deschamps’ side lose possession high up the pitch, they recover shape quickly and make the first pass extremely difficult. Sweden’s midfield has to be clean under pressure if they want their forwards involved consistently.

France deserve to be favorites. Sweden are good enough to punish mistakes if France offer them.

Player to Watch: Ousmane Dembélé

Dembélé might be the player who determines how comfortable France’s evening becomes.

When he is sharp, France become almost impossible to cover defensively toward one side of the pitch, and that creates the sort of spacing that these teams spend entire tournaments searching for.

Prediction: France 3–1 Sweden

Sweden have enough attacking talent to score and enough organization to remain competitive. France simply have too many ways to create chances over ninety minutes.

El Tri’s Biggest Test Yet

This is the match.

Mexico have been efficient rather than spectacular.

Javier Aguirre’s side won all three group matches and have yet to concede, but their tournament has been built more on moments of quality than overall performances. That is not criticism. It is probably exactly how Aguirre wants this team to look.

Playing at home helps. It also makes every moment feel larger than it actually is.

The altitude probably helps less than many expect. Few teams remaining in the tournament are better prepared for those conditions than Ecuador.

The Azteca has already been one of the stories of the tournament, and Mexico have benefited from that energy. Opponents feel every tackle, every attack and every restart. El Tri haven’t lost in this stadium during a World Cup. Ever.

Ecuador will not be intimidated by any of it.

Sebastián Beccacece’s side already beat Germany and looked increasingly comfortable as the group stage progressed. Moisés Caicedo has become the center of everything Ecuador do, while Piero Hincapié and Willian Pacho have formed one of the strongest defensive pairings remaining in the tournament.

Mexico’s challenge is controlling midfield without losing width.

Ecuador are comfortable turning matches into pressing and physical battles, particularly through Caicedo and Alan Franco. Mexico need patience in possession without allowing the game to slow into Ecuador’s preferred tempo.

As someone who tends to trust midfields in knockout football, I keep coming back to Ecuador here.

Caicedo changes games. There are not many players left in the tournament who influence every phase the way he does.

Player to Watch: Moisés Caicedo

This feels obvious, but obvious is not always wrong.

Caicedo covers ground, protects the defense, wins duels and gives Ecuador enough composure to play through pressure instead of only surviving it.

In an environment that will be entirely against him, Ecuador need their captain to look like the calmest player on the field.

That usually describes him pretty well.

Prediction: Ecuador 1–0 Mexico

Mexico have home advantage and one of the best atmospheres in the tournament behind them.

Ecuador have the better midfield. I usually trust that.

Caicedo gives Ecuador control in central areas, Hincapié and Pacho provide an excellent defensive foundation, and Ecuador have already shown against Germany that difficult atmospheres and heavyweight opponents do not change the way they play.

It may take one transition, one turnover or one set piece. Ecuador move on.

Canada are through to the Round of 16, but they needed almost every second available to get there.

South Africa spent most of yesterday playing exactly the match they wanted. They defended well, slowed Canada’s transitions, and forced Jesse Marsch’s side into longer periods of possession than they usually prefer. Extra time felt more likely than a winner. Instead, one loose ball near the edge of the box changed the game. Stephen Eustáquio reacted first, Canada survived, and South Africa’s best World Cup run came to an end just moments away from another half hour.

The result felt like a useful reminder heading into the rest of the Round of 32.

Group stage matches often reward consistency and squad depth over three games. Knockout football tends to become much simpler and much harsher. One mistake, one substitution, or one finish can decide the entire tournament for a team that spent years getting there.

Day 19 gives us three more chances to find out who handles that pressure best.

Brazil meet Japan in Houston in one of the more interesting stylistic matchups of the round. Germany face a Paraguay side that has shown very little interest in making matches comfortable for opponents. The evening finishes in Monterrey, where Morocco and the Netherlands meet in a fixture that feels more like a quarterfinal than an opening knockout match.

Samba Against Structure

Brazil have looked more complete with each match. The improvement has been tactical as much as individual.

Earlier in the year, Brazil often felt like a collection of elite players waiting for moments of inspiration. Through the group stage, Carlo Ancelotti’s side began looking more connected in possession and much more organized when trying to recover the ball after attacks broke down.

Vinícius Júnior has been central to that change.

Brazil are finding him earlier in attack, teammates are creating better passing angles around him, and opponents are struggling to isolate him without opening space elsewhere. The version of Vinícius that dominates Champions League knockout matches has finally started appearing regularly in a Brazil shirt.

Japan arrive with one advantage that many opponents do not have.

They genuinely believe they can beat Brazil.

The friendly victory over Brazil last year does not directly matter in Houston, but it removes any sense of intimidation from the occasion. Hajime Moriyasu’s side are among the most tactically disciplined teams remaining in the tournament, and they have spent years proving that organization and patience can compensate for differences in individual talent.

Japan defend compactly and rarely chase the ball unnecessarily. That means Brazil’s possession has to move with purpose. Quick switches of play, underlapping runs and third-man movements through midfield are more likely to create the sort of defensive decisions that pull Japan out of shape.

Takefusa Kubo’s absence removes some creativity, but Japan still have enough quality to create problems in transition. Ayase Ueda has quietly put together a strong tournament, while Daichi Kamada remains one of the better players in the competition at finding space behind aggressive midfields.

Under Ancelotti, Casemiro has become more involved in helping Brazil sustain attacks and recover second balls quickly after moves break down. Against a team that transitions as efficiently as Japan, that work becomes almost as valuable as anything happening inside the penalty area.

Player to Watch: Vinícius Júnior

This feels like Vinícius’ tournament.

Neymar’s return remains important, but Brazil’s attack now moves according to Vinícius’ decisions. Defenders retreat when he accelerates, midfielders shift toward his side of the field, and spaces begin opening elsewhere because opponents are so worried about what happens when he receives the ball facing forward.

Few players in world football influence defensive structures as quickly as he does.

Prediction: Brazil 2–1 Japan

Japan have enough defensive organization and technical quality to stay in the game for long stretches, particularly if they can avoid chasing the match early.

Brazil, however, have looked progressively more comfortable with each passing performance, and the combination of Vinícius’ form and Ancelotti’s tactical balance should eventually prove enough to move them into the Round of 16.

Germany Have Talent. Paraguay Have Ideas.

Germany won their group and still managed to arrive in the knockout rounds surrounded by questions.

The defeat to Ecuador in the final group match reopened conversations about Julian Nagelsmann’s selections. Germany remain one of the strongest squads in the competition, but talent alone rarely calms public debate around the national team.

Paraguay will not care much about any of that.

Gustavo Alfaro’s side reached the knockout rounds by doing exactly what they intended to do from the beginning of the tournament. They defended well, competed physically and turned matches into uncomfortable tactical battles. Paraguay rarely make games attractive for neutral viewers, but they are very good at making games frustrating for opponents.

Germany are likely to dominate possession. The challenge is turning that possession into something dangerous against a defense that is comfortable protecting the edge of its own penalty area for long periods. Germany need movement between lines, particularly from Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala, and they need runners attacking spaces behind defenders rather than waiting for the perfect opening to appear.

Deniz Undav feels important for that reason.

His movement inside crowded penalty areas has given Germany a different dimension throughout the tournament. Paraguay’s center backs are comfortable in physical battles. Constant movement and late runs create different problems.

Paraguay’s attacking plan is fairly straightforward, but that does not make it less effective. Diego Gómez gives them progression. Julio Enciso remains the player most likely to create something unexpected from difficult positions. Germany looked vulnerable defending transitions against Ecuador, and Paraguay will try to recreate those moments whenever possible.

Set pieces also deserve attention.

Paraguay treat corners and free kicks as major parts of their attacking plan rather than secondary routes toward goal. Germany know every delivery into the penalty area will arrive with intent.

Player to Watch: Jamal Musiala

Musiala changes the pace of matches.

Germany can spend long stretches controlling possession without making opponents particularly uncomfortable. Musiala’s dribbling changes that equation immediately, especially against teams that prefer defending compactly around the edge of their own box.

Paraguay will reduce space whenever possible. Musiala is Germany’s best answer to that problem.

Prediction: Germany 3–1 Paraguay

Paraguay should remain competitive for much of the afternoon because they defend well enough to prevent Germany from creating chance after chance.

Germany simply have too many players capable of creating advantages in small spaces, and knockout football usually rewards teams that can create quality moments without needing perfect attacking moves to get there.

The Match of the Day

This is the game I keep coming back to.

Brazil may be the favorite. Germany may be the giant trying to avoid an upset. Netherlands against Morocco feels like the match that could shape the entire side of the bracket.

Both teams came through difficult groups and both look capable of reaching the quarterfinals. Instead, one leaves before the Round of 16 even begins.

The Netherlands arrive with familiar strengths.

Virgil van Dijk organizes the defensive line, Frenkie de Jong controls rhythm in midfield and Cody Gakpo continues to provide reliable production in attacking areas. Ronald Koeman wants his team stretching opponents wide before attacking spaces through the middle with runners arriving from deeper positions.

Morocco are particularly comfortable defending that style of game.

They remain disciplined for long periods without the ball. Teams often finish matches against Morocco with impressive possession numbers and fewer clear opportunities than they expected to create. Achraf Hakimi remains the central figure.

His influence extends far beyond overlaps and assists. Hakimi gives Morocco width in possession, recovery speed in transition and an outlet whenever pressure begins to build. The battle with Cody Gakpo could shape the match because it affects both ends of the pitch at once.

Morocco’s has quietly been one of the stories of the tournament. Sofyan Amrabat continues to provide defensive balance, while Ismael Saibari has become important progressing the ball through pressure.

The conditions in Monterrey may help them too.

Slower matches generally favor teams comfortable defending for longer stretches and attacking quickly after turnovers. Morocco have built much of their recent success around that approach.

As someone who has watched Colombia and Morocco become two of the most enjoyable tournament teams to watch over the last few years, I also have to admit I enjoy teams that make favorites solve problems rather than simply trying to survive them.

Morocco tend to do that.

Player to Watch: Achraf Hakimi

Few players influence matches in as many phases of play as Hakimi.

He provides Morocco’s width, creates transition opportunities and helps stabilize the defensive structure whenever opponents attack wide areas. His positioning often tells you how Morocco want the game to look long before the scoreboard does.

Prediction: Morocco 2–1 Netherlands

The Netherlands will probably finish with more possession and more touches in the final third.

Morocco have shown repeatedly that those numbers do not concern them very much.

They defend well, recover numbers quickly and remain one of the better transition teams left in the competition. Hakimi should find opportunities down the right side, Amrabat should keep central areas compact, and Morocco have enough quality in attacking moments to punish mistakes when they appear.

Canada await in the Round of 16.

The World Cup spent two weeks asking teams to survive.

Now it starts asking them to win.

England beat Panama 2–0 to finish top of Group L, but it was hardly a statement performance. For an hour, Panama frustrated them and made England look more like a team trying not to make mistakes than one trying to win the World Cup.

Jude Bellingham decided enough was enough. The midfielder broke the game open with a trademark run into the box before setting up Harry Kane minutes later. England advance, but questions remain.

Croatia did what Croatia always seem to do in tournaments: survive.

Needing a result against Ghana, Zlatko Dalić’s side leaned on experience once again. Luka Modrić controlled the rhythm, Croatia found their moments, and a late Nikola Vlašić winner sent them into the Round of 32. Ghana lost, but still progressed as one of the best third-place teams after another disciplined performance.

Colombia and Portugal played out one of the best games of the tournament so far.

Colombia created the better moments and never allowed Portugal to settle into their usual rhythm. Jhon Córdoba spent the night battling center backs, winning duels, and giving Colombia an outlet whenever pressure arrived. Gustavo Puerta covered ground all over the midfield and disrupted Portugal’s buildup before it could develop. James Rodríguez drifted between the lines, finishing with five chances created, while Cristiano Ronaldo was largely kept quiet as Colombia limited Portugal to just 45% possession. Colombia topped the group. Portugal advanced too. For ninety minutes in Miami, it felt less like a final group match and more like a knockout game that neither side wanted to lose.

DR Congo delivered one of the stories of the tournament.

Trailing Uzbekistan at halftime, they responded with three second-half goals to secure their first World Cup victory and a place in the knockout rounds. The team nobody was talking about a week ago is preparing to face England with absolutely nothing to lose.

Argentina rotated heavily, still won comfortably, and then Lionel Messi came off the bench and scored a free kick because some things never change.

Austria and Algeria then ended the group stage with six goals, two comebacks, and just enough chaos to remind everyone why the World Cup is the World Cup.

The calculators are gone. The group tables are gone. Lose today and your tournament ends.

A Knockout Match Nobody Saw Coming

If somebody had told you six months ago that the opening match of the knockout stage would be South Africa against Canada, you probably would have assumed something had gone very wrong for several traditional powers.

Instead, both teams earned their place here.

South Africa survived Group A through organization, discipline and patience. Hugo Broos’ side conceded just three goals in three matches and never looked interested in turning games into track meets. They defend compactly in a 4-2-3-1 shape, keep very little space between midfield and defense, and force opponents wide where crosses become easier to defend.

They’re comfortable making games ugly. Honestly, they prefer it that way.

Canada are almost the complete opposite. Jesse Marsch wants chaos.

He wants high pressing, quick transitions and attacks that happen before opponents can recover their shape. Canada have looked their best in this tournament when matches become open and vertical. Jonathan David thrives attacking unsettled defenses, Tajon Buchanan becomes dangerous when isolated against fullbacks, and Jacob Shaffelburg gives them another direct option down the left.

The tactical battle almost writes itself.

If Canada force turnovers high up the pitch and play the match in transition, they should win.

If South Africa survive the first wave of pressure and turn this into a slower, more physical game, things become uncomfortable very quickly.

The biggest team news surrounds Alphonso Davies.

The Canadian captain is available after injury concerns earlier in the tournament but is expected to begin the match on the bench. Even limited minutes from Davies changes the entire tactical equation. South Africa know that if the game is level after an hour, one of the fastest players in world football could suddenly appear against tired defenders.

That is not exactly ideal.

Canada also receive a major boost with Moïse Bombito returning to the back line. His pace allows Canada to press more aggressively because they know they have someone capable of defending large spaces behind the defensive line.

That matters against Relebohile Mofokeng.

South Africa’s best route forward will likely come through Mofokeng finding space in transition and combining with Evidence Makgopa before Canada’s defense can reset. If Canada lose control of midfield and allow South Africa to break pressure, the underdogs absolutely have enough quality to punish them.

The other player to watch tactically is Teboho Mokoena.

Canada will likely press South Africa’s center backs aggressively, which means Mokoena becomes the first pass out of pressure and the player responsible for turning defensive possessions into attacking opportunities. If Canada can prevent him from receiving comfortably, South Africa could spend long stretches pinned inside their own half.

If they cannot, this becomes a much longer afternoon than many people expect.

Canada have more talent. South Africa may have less pressure.

Knockout football has a funny habit of making those two things feel a lot closer than they should.

Player to Watch: Jonathan David

Alphonso Davies will get the headlines. Jonathan David might decide the match.

The Juventus striker has put together an outstanding tournament because he offers far more than goals. He drops into midfield to connect play, drifts into half spaces to create overloads, presses center backs and somehow always seems to appear in dangerous positions at exactly the right moment.

Against South Africa’s compact defensive shape, Canada probably will not create fifteen chances.

David may only receive two or three clear opportunities all afternoon. For a striker of his quality, that is usually enough.

Prediction: Canada 2–1 South Africa

South Africa are too organized defensively and too disciplined tactically for this to become another Canada attacking showcase. There are going to be long stretches where Canada dominate possession but struggle to create anything clean in central areas.

Eventually, though, talent usually wins these matches. Jonathan David finds one. Alphonso Davies changes the game off the bench.

Canada survive the scare and move on to the Round of 16.

The knockout stage officially begins.

The group stage never ends quietly.

France did not just beat Norway. They made a point.

Ousmane Dembélé scored a first-half hat trick in France’s 4–1 win, and the strangest part was that the match was supposed to be about Kylian Mbappé and Erling Haaland. Instead, Norway rested Haaland and Martin Ødegaard, France still played with purpose, and Dembélé turned the game into his own personal reminder that this French attack has more than one way to ruin your afternoon.

That should scare everyone left in the tournament.

France have Dembélé flying, Mbappé still lurking, Désiré Doué getting involved, and a midfield that can control games. There is a difference between managing legs and getting reminded what the top tier looks like.

Senegal also did what they had to do, beating Iraq 5–0 after an early red card changed the game and gave themselves a real chance to stay alive. Ismaïla Sarr scored again, Pape Gueye came off the bench and scored twice, and Iraq’s first World Cup in 40 years ended with three losses.

Then came Group H, where Spain did Spain things, but not in the pretty way.

They beat Uruguay 1–0 through Álex Baena, topped the group, and sent Uruguay home. Spain were not perfect. They were not spectacular. They were just controlled enough, patient enough, and ruthless enough when the chance came. Uruguay pushed late, but the finishing never arrived, and by the time Agustín Canobbio was sent off in stoppage time, their tournament felt finished.

The bigger story might have been Cape Verde.

The 0–0 draw with Saudi Arabia was historic. Three games, three draws, and somehow enough to reach the Round of 32. That is the beauty and chaos of this expanded World Cup. You do not always need to look like a contender. Sometimes you just need to survive every 90 minutes, collect points, and make everyone else deal with you later.

Belgium finally exploded too, beating New Zealand 5–1 to win Group G, while Egypt and Iran drew 1–1. It sets up the knockouts with one more giant starting to look comfortable.

Now we get the final day of the group stage.

Six matches. Three groups. A few teams already through. A few teams already out. And several teams stuck in that terrifying middle ground where one mistake can turn an entire month into a flight home.

This is where the World Cup starts feeling mean.

England are already through, but this still matters.

Thanks to results elsewhere, England have already secured a spot in the Round of 32. But the goal is not to sneak into the knockouts. The goal is to win Group L, avoid unnecessary bracket chaos, and leave the group stage feeling like a team that knows what it is.

Right now, I am not sure England have fully answered that.

The 4–2 win over Croatia looked like the version of England people imagined when Thomas Tuchel took over. Aggressive pressing. Quick passing. Jude Bellingham arriving between the lines. Harry Kane dropping off to connect play. Wide players attacking the box instead of just standing outside it.

Then came the 0–0 draw with Ghana, and suddenly the old questions came back.

Against Ghana, England had the ball but never fully had control of the match. Ghana never really felt trapped.

Panama will likely defend in a low block, sit in a back five or a very compact back four, and make England play through traffic. They have nothing left to lose after defeats to Ghana and Croatia, which can be dangerous. An eliminated team can play with freedom.

Reece James being out with a hamstring injury changes the balance. Jarell Quansah starting at right back gives Tuchel more defensive security, more size, but less attacking rhythm down that side. That could push more responsibility onto Bukayo Saka.

Saka returning to the right gives England a clear outlet. If Quansah stays deeper, Saka may isolate Panama’s left side and become the main creator of wide pressure. On the opposite side, Marcus Rashford gives England something more direct than Anthony Gordon. England cannot let the match become 70 minutes of sideways passing.

The interesting tactical piece is Morgan Rogers. If Rogers starts as the No. 10 with Bellingham deeper, England become more vertical. Rogers wants to receive on the half-turn and carry. Bellingham, from a slightly deeper role, can still break lines but also help England counter-press after losing the ball.

Panama’s biggest issue is chance creation. Adalberto Carrasquilla starting on the bench with a muscle issue removes one of their best midfield connectors. Without him, Panama will probably look for direct balls into wide areas, set pieces, and moments where England’s rotated back line loses concentration.

England cannot let that happen.

Player to Watch: Jude Bellingham

Bellingham is not England’s only important player, but he is still the one who changes the emotional temperature of a match. Against Panama, whether he plays as a No. 8 or pushes higher, England need his timing more than his highlights.

A late run into the box. A tackle after losing possession. A pass that breaks two lines instead of one.

Those are the details that can turn a frustrating group finale into a professional win.

Prediction: England 3–0 Panama

England should have enough.

Panama can defend with pride for stretches, but the matchup asks too much of them. England’s wide players should eventually stretch the field, and Kane’s movement will create gaps for runners underneath.

The bigger question is not whether England win. It is whether they look sharp enough to make people believe again.

A knockout game before the knockout stage.

Croatia are not supposed to be here.

Not because they are too good to struggle. Tournament football does not care about reputations. But because this generation has spent the last eight years making deep World Cup runs feel normal.

Final in 2018. Semifinal in 2022. Now, in 2026, they enter the final group match needing a result against Ghana just to feel safe.

That is the tournament telling Croatia that experience can only carry you so far.

The 4–2 loss to England exposed the concern everyone had before the tournament: Croatia can still play, but can they still defend space? Luka Modrić and Mateo Kovačić remain brilliant midfielders, but the game around them has changed.

Croatia then beat Panama 1–0, but it was not convincing enough to erase the doubts. It kept them alive. That is all. Now they face a Ghana team that has been one of the most disciplined sides in the group stage.

Ghana have been comfortable without the ball and dangerous when the game opens. Under Carlos Queiroz, that makes sense. This is a team built to make opponents miserable.

The key battle is central control versus transition threat.

Croatia want the ball. They want Modrić dictating tempo, Kovačić carrying through midfield, and Ivan Perišić finding pockets where he can deliver early crosses. With Ante Budimir up front, Croatia have a target, and that matters against a Ghana side that will not leave much space through the middle.

But Ghana will not mind defending crosses if they are organized. What they will want is the first pass after regaining possession. If Thomas Partey can receive and turn, if Jordan Ayew can hold the ball, if Antoine Semenyo or Kamaldeen Sulemana can attack the channels, Croatia will have a problem.

That is why Josko Gvardiol being dropped is such a major storyline. Whether it is form, tactical balance or fitness management, Croatia removing one of their best defenders from the starting lineup says a lot.

For Croatia, Martin Baturina may be the key to making this team feel less predictable. Modrić can still control rhythm, but Croatia need someone between midfield and attack who can receive under pressure and turn Ghana around. If everything goes through wide crosses and slow buildup, Ghana will be fine.

This match could become uncomfortable quickly.

Croatia need to win to avoid depending on third-place chaos. Ghana can approach the match with more flexibility, but a win could give them the group if England slip. That changes the psychology. Croatia are chasing. Ghana are calculating.

Sometimes that is the difference.

Player to Watch: Antoine Semenyo

Semenyo feels built for this kind of match.

He does not need 10 touches in a move. He needs one good first touch, one defender leaning the wrong direction, and 30 yards of grass to attack. Croatia’s midfield is still talented, but it is not built to chase him in transition.

If Ghana score, it probably starts with a moment where Semenyo turns defense into attack before Croatia can reset.

Prediction: Ghana 2–1 Croatia

This feels like the moment the cycle finally catches up with Croatia.

They still have the midfield quality to control stretches of the match, but Ghana have looked more balanced, more athletic and more comfortable in the tournament so far. If Croatia dominate possession without creating enough clear chances, the game starts drifting toward exactly the type of match Ghana want.

One transition. One Semenyo run. One set piece. That might be enough.

Croatia have spent the better part of a decade surviving moments like this, which is exactly why picking against them feels dangerous. But eventually every generation reaches the match where experience stops being enough on its own.

I think this might be that match.

The game of the day, and I am absolutely not making a prediction.

This is the match.

Colombia versus Portugal in Miami. First place in Group K on the line. Two teams already good enough to cause problems in the knockouts, but still playing for a cleaner path.

Colombia enter with six points from six. Portugal enter with four. A draw is enough for Colombia to win the group. Portugal need to win.

That changes the match before the ball is even kicked. Colombia do not have to chase. Portugal do.

That does not mean Colombia will sit deep for 90 minutes, but it does mean Néstor Lorenzo’s team can be selective. Colombia are at their best when they can defend compactly, win second balls, and attack the space left behind. They do not need 65 percent possession to be dangerous. Honestly, sometimes they look better without it.

Portugal are the opposite in this matchup. They will want the ball, and they will probably have more of it. The question is whether they can turn possession into clean chances against a Colombian side that has become very comfortable defending in a mid-block.

Portugal have the individual quality to break any team. Bruno Fernandes can find passes most midfielders do not see. Bernardo Silva can slow the game down until a defender steps out of shape. Rafael Leão can turn a normal left-wing touch into a panic situation. Cristiano Ronaldo still changes how center backs position themselves, because even now, you cannot lose him in the box.

But Colombia are not easy to pull apart. The midfield is the key.

Gustavo Puerta might be the most interesting story in this Colombian midfield.

At 22, he plays with the confidence of someone who has been here for years. He presses aggressively, covers ground, wins second balls and moves possession forward quickly once Colombia recover it. Lorenzo trusts him because he gives Colombia energy without sacrificing structure.

Jefferson Lerma still provides the defensive presence and aerial strength that make this midfield work, but Puerta gives Colombia something different. He makes the game feel faster. Against a Portugal side that wants control through possession, that ability to turn a loose ball into an attack could become one of the biggest tactical battles of the night.

Then there is James Rodríguez.

I do not know how many times we are supposed to write the “James is back” story before admitting he never fully left in a Colombia shirt. He does not move like he used to, but he still sees the field earlier than everyone else. Against Portugal, he does not need to run the match. He needs to choose the right moments.

Luis Díaz is the obvious danger. Portugal can defend him with João Cancelo or Nuno Mendes depending on the setup, but the problem with Díaz is that the matchup is never just about the first defender. If he beats one player, Portugal’s midfield has to shift. If Portugal’s midfield shifts, James gets more room. If James gets more room, Colombia become Colombia.

That is the chain Portugal have to break.

Portugal’s concern is at center back, with Tomás Araújo reportedly doubtful. That matters because Colombia can attack in waves. Jhon Córdoba gives them physicality. Jhon Arias can drift inside and make the game messy. Colombia do not always need perfect attacking structure because they are so good at turning loose balls into pressure.

The tactical question for Portugal is how aggressive they want to be with their fullbacks.

If they push high, they can pin Colombia back and create overloads. If they lose the ball, Díaz and Arias will have space to run into. That is the whole match in one sentence.

Portugal need a win to top the group, but playing too open against Colombia is asking for trouble.

Colombia only need a draw, but playing too passively invites Portugal’s creators to spend the night around the box.

It is a beautiful problem.

Player to Watch: Luis Díaz

Every Colombia match has a moment where Díaz gets the ball and the entire stadium changes.

It is not always a goal. Sometimes it is a dribble that wins a corner. Sometimes it is a run that forces a yellow card. Sometimes it is just him pressing like he has decided the defender personally offended him.

If Colombia spend long stretches defending, Díaz has to make Portugal afraid of losing the ball. If he does that, the whole match changes.

Prediction:

Nope. Not doing it. I have watched enough of this sport to know better.

I will say this: Colombia do not need to prove they belong in this match. They already have. Tonight is about proving they can win a group against one of the deepest teams in the tournament and walk into the knockouts with everyone paying attention.

That is enough from me.

One team still believes. The other needs a miracle.

DR Congo and Uzbekistan play at the same time as Colombia and Portugal, which is honestly perfect.

Because while everyone is watching the top of Group K, the survival fight is happening in Atlanta.

DR Congo have one point from two matches. That draw against Portugal gave them life. The narrow loss to Colombia hurt, but it did not end them. A win over Uzbekistan could put them in position to qualify as one of the best third-place teams, depending on the final table.

Uzbekistan have no points and a brutal goal difference after losses to Colombia and Portugal. They are not mathematically finished yet, but the path is extremely narrow. They need to win, and even then, they need help that may not come.

That makes this match emotionally different for both teams.

DR Congo are playing with belief. Uzbekistan are playing for pride, history, and the slim chance that chaos gives them one more day.

Tactically, DR Congo should have the advantage because of their physicality. They can defend in a back five or shift into a more aggressive shape when chasing the game. Against Portugal and Colombia, they had to spend long stretches absorbing pressure. Against Uzbekistan, they should have more chances to step forward.

That is where Yoane Wissa becomes important.

Wissa gives DR Congo movement across the front line. He can run behind, drift wide, and press center backs into rushed decisions. Cédric Bakambu offers experience and penalty-box instincts. If DR Congo can get service into those two without forcing everything, Uzbekistan’s defense will have problems.

But DR Congo cannot get impatient. The danger in matches like this is that the team that needs a win starts playing like every possession has to become a shot. That leads to rushed crosses, bad turnovers and counterattacks.

Uzbekistan under Fabio Cannavaro will likely try to make the match smaller. After conceding heavily in the first two games, they need control. Expect them to look for Eldor Shomurodov as the outlet. He is still the player who gives Uzbekistan a chance.

DR Congo are carrying the weight of a country that has waited decades for a World Cup moment like this. Their president even publicly urged the team on before the match. That can inspire players, but it can also make the ball feel heavier.

They have to turn emotion into energy, not anxiety.

Player to Watch: Yoane Wissa

Wissa feels like the player most likely to decide this match.

Not because he needs to dominate possession, but because he attacks the exact spaces Uzbekistan have struggled to protect. If DR Congo win the ball and find him early, he can force Uzbekistan’s back line to defend facing its own goal.

That is when mistakes happen.

Prediction: DR Congo 2–0 Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan will fight, but DR Congo have more attacking variety and more belief entering the match.

I think they score once, calm down, and add a second when Uzbekistan have to chase.

Argentina can rotate and still look unfair.

Argentina have already won Group J. That is the simplest way to explain this match.

The more complicated version is that Argentina now have to balance rhythm, rest, health and respect for the competition. Lionel Scaloni has confirmed Lionel Messi will not start, which makes sense. Messi has already carried the group stage, Argentina are already through, and there is no reason to risk him from the opening whistle.

Still, this is Argentina.

Their rotated lineup could include players most countries would build around.

Julián Álvarez can start and give Argentina pressing, movement and finishing. Nico Paz can get minutes and offer creativity between the lines. Leandro Paredes can control tempo from deep. Nicolás Otamendi can bring experience in the back line if Cristian Romero is rested with his knee issue.

That is the luxury Argentina have. They can rest the greatest player ever and still field a team with structure, experience and attacking quality.

Jordan are already eliminated, but they deserve more respect than just being treated like Argentina’s warmup. This is their first World Cup, and even if the results have not gone their way, they have competed with pride.

Expect Jordan to defend deep.

They will likely protect the center, force Argentina wide, and look for Mousa Al-Tamari or Ali Olwan when they win the ball. Al-Tamari is the obvious one because of his pace and ability to carry the ball into space. If Argentina rotate heavily, there may be moments where their defensive spacing is not as sharp as usual.

The problem is that Argentina are excellent at turning defensive matches into patience tests.

They will circulate the ball, change the point of attack, pull defenders out of position, and wait for a gap. Even without Messi starting, they still have players who understand how to move between lines and manipulate a low block.

The biggest thing for Argentina is avoiding injuries.

This match should not become a battle. It should be professional, controlled, and calm. If Messi enters in the second half, it will probably be more about rhythm than necessity.

Argentina are treating a World Cup match like squad management, and they have earned the right to do it.

Player to Watch: Julián Álvarez

Álvarez is one of the best “give him any role and he will figure it out” players in the world.

He can lead the line, press as a forward, drift into the half-space, combine with midfielders and still arrive in the box like a striker. If Messi starts on the bench, Álvarez becomes the attacking reference point.

This is the kind of match where he can quietly remind everyone that Argentina’s future is still terrifying.

Prediction: Argentina 4–0 Jordan

Jordan will defend with pride and probably keep the match closer than some expect early on.

Argentina still have too much quality, even with rotation. A win, no drama, and then full focus on the knockouts.

The best late-night match might be in Kansas City.

This is the kind of World Cup match I love. Because the stakes are clear.

Austria and Algeria both enter with three points. Argentina have already won the group. Jordan are eliminated. That leaves Austria and Algeria fighting for second place and knockout security.

A win guarantees it. A draw likely helps Austria more because of goal difference, while Algeria would have to trust the third-place table. That does not mean Austria will sit back, and both teams have publicly dismissed the idea of playing for anything other than a win.

Good. Because this matchup deserves to be played straight.

Austria under Ralf Rangnick are one of the most tactically clear teams in the tournament. They press, they run, they compress the field, and they try to turn matches into repeated duels. That can be exhausting to play against. Their best moments usually come right after the ball is won.

Konrad Laimer is central to that. Marcel Sabitzer gives them passing and shooting from midfield. Christoph Baumgartner can arrive in dangerous spaces. Marko Arnautović, if involved, gives them presence and edge.

Algeria want something different.

They have technical players who can handle the ball, but they cannot afford to get dragged into Austria’s running contest for 90 minutes. The balance has to come from midfield.

They need Amine Gouiri and their wide players receiving in pockets where they can turn and attack, not with their backs to goal and two defenders already closing them down. Gouiri is especially important because he does not play like a traditional forward. He gives Algeria a way to break structure without needing a perfect team move. Against Austria, that matters.

Austria’s biggest advantage is collective timing. Algeria’s biggest advantage may be individual creativity. That makes this a fascinating contrast.

Player to Watch: Amine Gouiri

Gouiri feels like the Algerian player most capable of disrupting Austria’s structure.

He can receive between lines, pull defenders with him, and create shots from awkward positions. Against a team as organized as Austria, those little moments matter. You are not always going to pass through the press cleanly. Sometimes you need a player to improvise.

That is Gouiri.

Prediction: Algeria 1–1 Austria

I want to pick a winner, but the match feels too balanced.

Austria’s press will cause Algeria problems. Algeria’s technical quality will create enough danger to keep Austria honest. In the end, I think Austria manage the result, Algeria push late, and both teams spend the final minutes doing math.

The World Cup started closing doors on Thursday.

Germany spent a week looking like one of the favorites before Ecuador reminded everyone how little the World Cup cares about momentum from three days earlier. Ivory Coast finally turned years of talent into results and booked a place in the knockout rounds. The Netherlands won Group F, Japan survived another difficult situation, and the United States learned that rotating heavily in the final group match sounds much easier than it usually is.

These are usually my favorite games of the group stage. There is something uniquely cruel and entertaining about watching teams spend two weeks building stories only for ninety minutes to decide which ones continue.

France Chases First Place While Norway Looks Ahead

France and Norway have already done the difficult part.

Both teams arrive in Boston knowing they will still be playing next week, but that doesn’t make first place meaningless. France only needs a draw to win Group I thanks to its superior goal difference, while Norway faces a more complicated decision between chasing first place and protecting legs for the knockout rounds. France also has an incentive to finish on top. Remaining in the northeastern U.S. rather than immediately flying south or west for the knockout rounds would simplify travel, recovery and preparation during a period of the tournament when margins become increasingly small.

Norway is approaching the match from a very different perspective.

Ståle Solbakken has spent most of the week talking about fatigue rather than ambition, and reports suggest that it will be reflected in the team selection. Multiple starters, including Erling Haaland, are expected to begin on the bench as Norway prioritizes freshness for the knockout rounds over the possibility of winning the group.

That does not make the evening any less interesting.

It simply changes the question from whether Norway can win Group I to whether its depth can prove strong enough to challenge one of the tournament favorites.

France enters under unusual circumstances of its own.

Didier Deschamps returned home earlier this week following the death of his mother and will miss the match, leaving longtime assistant Guy Stéphan in charge on the touchline. The French players have spoken about wanting to perform well in their manager’s absence, and there is an emotional layer to this game that would not normally exist in a match between two teams that have already qualified.

Mbappé enters the evening near the top of the Golden Boot race, while Norway’s focus appears set on the matches that come after this one.

The tactical battle itself is simple.

Norway has looked most dangerous when it can attack quickly before defenses settle into shape. The problem for Solbakken is that many of the players responsible for creating those moments are beginning this match on the bench.

France wants almost exactly the same type of game.

Kylian Mbappé remains devastating when defenders are forced to turn and run, Michael Olise has become one of France’s most important ball progressors, and the French midfield has enough athleticism to turn any moment into an attack immediately. The difference is that France can create those situations through more players and in more ways.

That is why the match feels so interesting tactically. Both want the same spaces. Only one gets to control them.

Player to Watch: Michael Olise

France already knew what Mbappé and Dembélé could provide in transition. What has made this team more dangerous with every match has been Olise’s ability to connect those moments before they happen.

Norway’s rotated lineup suggests the match may become compact for long stretches, particularly early on. That places even greater importance on the players capable of creating advantages before defensive structures can settle.

Olise has become one of France’s best players at doing exactly that.

His first touch regularly moves defenders out of position, his passing arrives earlier than opponents expect and his movement between the lines gives France another creator alongside Mbappé rather than another runner waiting for service.

Against a Norwegian side focused on surviving and preserving energy for the knockout rounds, that creativity could become the difference between a frustrating evening and a comfortable one.

Prediction: France 3–1 Norway

The expected rotation changes the match considerably. France was already the favorite. Asking a heavily rotated Norwegian side to win the group away from home against one of the deepest squads in the tournament feels like too much.

Norway has looked too organized throughout the tournament for me to believe France completely shuts them down, particularly if Solbakken turns toward his bench earlier than expected and introduces fresh legs late.

The problem is that France asks too many questions over ninety minutes.

The midfield has become more comfortable with every match, and the squad depth allows France to rotate without dramatically lowering the level on the pitch. Norway should create chances and probably enjoys moments where it looks competitive.

I just don’t think it has enough of those moments.

France gradually pulls away, secures first place and heads into the knockout rounds looking increasingly comfortable with where it is in the tournament.

Two Teams Arrive Needing the Same Result.

Neither team has a point. That makes this one fascinating.

Senegal entered the World Cup believing it could compete with France and Norway for qualification. Iraq arrived hoping to prove it belonged on this stage after one of the longest qualification campaigns of any nation in the tournament. Instead, both teams enter the final matchday knowing that anything short of victory almost certainly ends their World Cup.

Senegal coach Pape Bouna Thiaw has described the match as “a sort of final,” and it is difficult to disagree with him. Even a win leaves Senegal dependent on the third-place table and results elsewhere, but it at least gives the Lions of Teranga a chance to stay alive.

Questions around selections, federation decisions and the direction of the program have followed Senegal throughout the tournament, adding another layer to a match that already feels like an elimination game.

The biggest news surrounds Édouard Mendy.

The goalkeeper suffered a knee injury against Norway and has been ruled out, leaving Senegal without one of its most experienced players in a match where one mistake could end the tournament. Mory Diaw is expected to step in, but replacing Mendy’s command of the penalty area and ability to organize the defense is not something that happens instantly at a World Cup.

There is a difference between urgency and desperation, and teams in this position often confuse the two. Urgency means moving the ball faster, pressing more aggressively and attacking spaces before they disappear. Desperation usually looks like hopeful crosses, rushed decisions and defenders stepping forward at moments they shouldn’t.

Iraq would welcome that kind of match. The expanded World Cup format means Iraq still has mathematical reasons to believe, and the longer the match stays level, the more uncomfortable the evening becomes for the favorites.

Senegal has enough quality to control the game. The challenge is controlling itself.

Player to Watch: Sadio Mané

Senegal needs him to calm the match down.

The opening twenty minutes of games like this often become frantic because players understand the stakes before the ball is even kicked. Passes become rushed, shots arrive too early and teams start trying to win matches with every possession rather than over ninety minutes.

Mané has played in too many major tournaments to fall into that trap.

His movement inside from wide areas remains Senegal’s most reliable source of creativity, but his decision making may be even more important than his finishing.

There is also the question of leadership.

For much of the past decade, Senegal’s biggest moments have involved Mané delivering when the country needed him most. This is not quite that level, but it is close enough that everyone will look toward him if the match becomes tense late in the second half.

Senegal needs clarity. Mané is the player most likely to provide it.

Prediction: Senegal 2–0 Iraq

I still think Senegal wins.

There is too much athleticism, too much experience and too much attacking quality to pick against them in this specific matchup. Iraq has struggled to create chances against stronger opposition, and Senegal should control both possession and territory for long stretches of the match.

The first goal may take longer than Senegal wants, and there will probably be moments where frustration starts creeping into the performance. Eventually, though, the difference in individual quality should become impossible to ignore.

Senegal keeps its tournament alive for at least another few hours and forces the rest of the field to finish the job.

Bielsa’s Chaos Meets Spain’s Control.

Uruguay entered this tournament looking like one of the most interesting teams outside the traditional favorites.

Marcelo Bielsa had spent the better part of two years turning La Celeste into his style: aggressive without the ball, vertical with it and completely uninterested in allowing matches to become rhythmic. During qualifying, Uruguay beat Brazil, beat Argentina and looked capable of making life miserable for almost anyone willing to play slowly against them.

Two matches into this World Cup, that version of Uruguay still hasn’t fully arrived.

The draw against Saudi Arabia was frustrating. The 2–2 result against Cape Verde was even harder to explain. Uruguay created chances in both games and never looked completely overwhelmed, but neither match ever felt like it was being played on Uruguay’s terms.

Now comes Spain.

Luis de la Fuente’s side looked significantly more like itself against Saudi Arabia after the disappointing opening draw with Cape Verde. The midfield finally started receiving possession in the spaces Spain normally dominates. Lamine Yamal’s return changed the shape of the team (and the scoreline) immediately. Saudi Arabia struggled to decide whether to close him aggressively or protect the passing lanes behind him, and Spain exploited that repeatedly on its way to a victory.

That creates one of the most fascinating tactical battles of the group stage.

Uruguay wants the match moving quickly enough that mistakes occur. Spain wants the game moving at exactly the speed Spain chooses. One side wants transitions, second balls and recoveries high up the field. The other wants possession long enough to move opponents out of position before exploiting the spaces left behind.

Neither manager is likely to compromise. That is usually when international football becomes more entertaining.

If Uruguay’s press arrives right, Federico Valverde suddenly has room to carry the ball through midfield and Darwin Núñez can attack defenders who are moving toward their own goal rather than standing in front of him. If Spain escapes the first wave of pressure, Uruguay could spend long stretches chasing possession and expending energy without ever recovering the ball in dangerous areas.

Spain may be the worst possible opponent to press poorly.

Rodri is one of the best midfielders in the world at recognizing exactly where pressure is coming from and where it leaves space behind. Pedri has become one of the tournament’s most important pivots, while Yamal’s willingness to stay wide forces defensive structures to stretch in ways where teams get uncomfortable.

Player to Watch: Federico Valverde

Federico Valverde carries a heavier tactical burden than the rest for Uruguay.

Against Spain, he has to solve multiple problems at once.

He has to help lead the press without leaving Rodri too much space in front of the defense. He has to become Uruguay’s outlet after recoveries so that the team can actually escape pressure once possession is won back. He also has to arrive quickly enough in attacking areas to support Darwin Núñez before Spain reorganizes behind the ball.

Most midfielders are asked to do one or two of those jobs. Valverde gets all three. There are not many midfielders in the world capable of carrying that responsibility. Valverde is one of them.

He has spent much of the tournament looking slightly restrained, almost as if he has been waiting for a game that demands his full range of abilities.

This feels like that game.

Prediction: Spain 2–1 Uruguay

I think Uruguay finally starts looking like Uruguay.

The press should be sharper, the midfield more aggressive and the energy levels considerably higher than they were against Cape Verde. Bielsa’s teams usually become more dangerous as the stakes increase rather than less, and there is enough quality in Valverde, Núñez and the players around them to create problems for any defense left in the tournament.

I also think Spain is an incredibly difficult team to chase.

If Uruguay falls behind, Spain’s ability to control possession becomes a major problem. Rodri and Pedri are perfectly comfortable turning five minutes into ten and ten minutes into fifteen if it means forcing opponents to spend energy without touching the ball. That becomes especially dangerous late in matches when legs start getting heavy and defensive distances become slightly larger.

Uruguay should create opportunities. Spain probably creates more.

The Blue Sharks Are Ninety Minutes From History.

Cape Verde entered its first World Cup happy to compete.

Two matches later, draws against Spain and Uruguay have left the Blue Sharks in a position almost nobody expected. Neither result felt fortunate. Cape Verde defended brilliantly against Spain’s possession, absorbed pressure without losing shape and looked comfortable on a stage that overwhelms many first-time participants.

The draw against Uruguay may have been even more impressive.

Bubista’s side not only matched Uruguay physically but repeatedly found opportunities to attack the spaces left behind by Bielsa’s press. The 2–2 result was built on a game plan that worked. That changes the conversation around this match entirely.

Saudi Arabia still has a path to the knockout rounds, but the 4–0 defeat against Spain exposed defensive issues that had been hidden during the opening draw with Uruguay. Spain found space between the Saudi midfield and defense, while the fullbacks struggled whenever they were isolated against wingers.

Cape Verde knows this.

The Blue Sharks have looked most dangerous when opponents are forced to push numbers forward and leave room behind them. Saudi Arabia enters needing a result, which means the match could eventually drift toward exactly the type of game Cape Verde wants to play.

Cape Verde has already proven it can defend. Now it has to prove it can finish the job.

Player to Watch: Ryan Mendes

In this match, experience matters almost as much as talent.

Cape Verde needs Ryan Mendes to make the right decisions at the right moments.

World Cup matches involving underdogs often become emotional quickly. Players try to force spectacular passes, rush shots or attempt to solve problems individually that should be solved collectively. Mendes has played too much football to fall into that trap.

His movement between the lines has become one of Cape Verde’s most important attacking weapons.

The experience matters too. Cape Verde has never played a match this big. Mendes has played enough important matches to understand that the occasion only becomes overwhelming if players allow it to become overwhelming.

Sometimes leadership in football looks like goals and assists. Sometimes it looks like knowing when to slow the game down.

Prediction: Cape Verde 3–2 Saudi Arabia

This is the prediction I have changed the most over the last twenty-four hours.

The safe prediction is a draw.

The more I think about the match, the more I think it opens up.

Saudi Arabia needs a result and cannot spend ninety minutes defending. Cape Verde has shown through two matches that it is far more dangerous than many expected before the tournament began. The moment one team scores, the other has to take risks.

That usually creates goals.

Saudi Arabia has enough attacking quality to find a couple of them, particularly through wide areas where Cape Verde occasionally leaves space behind its fullbacks when pushing numbers forward.

I just trust Cape Verde’s structure slightly more.

The Blue Sharks have looked calmer, more organized and more comfortable with their identity than almost anyone expected entering the tournament. They have already held Spain and traded punches with Uruguay.

Winning a five-goal match against Saudi Arabia suddenly does not sound impossible at all. It sounds exactly like the kind of result this World Cup has been producing.

Belgium Needs Answers. New Zealand Wants Another Surprise.

Romelu Lukaku remains one of international football’s most productive strikers, Kevin De Bruyne is still capable of controlling matches almost by himself, and the next generation led by Jérémy Doku has given Belgium an athleticism it lacked during the final years of the golden generation.

Two matches into the tournament, none of that has translated into victories.

The draw against Egypt was frustrating because Belgium controlled possession without creating enough chances. The scoreless draw against Iran was even more concerning because the attack looked predictable. Too many possessions ended with crosses into crowded penalty areas or hopeful efforts from distance rather than attempts that genuinely unsettled opponents.

That leaves Belgium entering the final matchday needing a result rather than managing one.

The return of Doku helps.

Rudi Garcia confirmed that both Doku and Lukaku are available after dealing with illness and fitness concerns, although Doku is expected to begin on the bench after missing a week of training while Lukaku continues working back toward full fitness. Even limited minutes from either player dramatically changes Belgium’s attacking profile because both force defenders to make decisions rather than simply maintain shape. Garcia specifically pointed to Doku’s ability to change games in short bursts, which probably tells us exactly how Belgium plans to use him if the match remains level deep into the second half.

New Zealand enters with less expectation but just as much to play for.

The All Whites have embraced the tournament’s upset trend all week, pointing to Ecuador’s win over Germany and Cape Verde’s draw with Uruguay as reminders that reputation disappears once matches begin. Darren Bazeley’s side has been remarkably disciplined through two matches, defending compactly and forcing opponents into wider areas rather than allowing combinations through the middle.

The challenge for Belgium is obvious. Possession will not be enough. Belgium has already had possession.

Belgium now needs goals.

New Zealand will happily concede territory if it means protecting central areas and limiting opportunities inside the box. The longer the score stays level, the more comfortable New Zealand becomes and the more nervous Belgium probably gets.

That is often how tournaments start creating stories nobody expected.

Player to Watch: Jérémy Doku

Belgium’s biggest problem has been unpredictability.

The attack has looked like eleven talented players waiting for someone else to take the first risk. Doku changes that immediately because he is one of the few players in world football who does not need a passing sequence or extended minutes to generate danger.

Sometimes all he needs is one defender. Against a low block, that matters a lot.

New Zealand will likely defend with numbers behind the ball and ask Belgium to play around them. Doku changes that because defenders cannot simply shift from side to side while maintaining shape. Eventually somebody has to step toward him, and the moment that happens, the spaces Belgium has been struggling to find suddenly begin appearing.

Tournament football often changes because one substitute enters with fresh legs against defenders who have already spent an hour concentrating. Doku feels like exactly that kind of player.

Prediction: Belgium 2–0 New Zealand

Chris Wood gives the All Whites a genuine outlet, particularly on set pieces and transitions, and the confidence inside that squad should not be underestimated after the way smaller nations have performed throughout this tournament.

I still trust Belgium over ninety minutes.

The quality gap remains significant, and the return of Doku and Lukaku gives Garcia more solutions than he has had available so far. Belgium probably becomes frustrated by New Zealand’s defensive structure before eventually finding the breakthrough that changes the complexion of the match.

Once that first goal arrives, the game should open. That is exactly what Belgium has been waiting for.

Group G Saved Its Biggest Match for Last

Egypt enters the final matchday with four points after drawing Belgium and beating New Zealand. Iran enters with two after consecutive draws.

That means Egypt can approach the evening patiently. Iran cannot.

If Iran pushes numbers forward too early, Mohamed Salah and Omar Marmoush become devastating in transition. If Iran waits too long, Egypt grows increasingly comfortable with the scoreline and begins forcing Iran to take even bigger risks.

Neither scenario feels ideal for the Iranians. That tension is what makes the match worth watching.

Egypt has looked like one of the more balanced teams in the group stage. The attack has looked dangerous without becoming overly dependent on Salah creating everything himself. Marmoush’s emergence has changed the entire conversation around this team.

For years, opponents could commit extra defenders toward Salah because Egypt lacked another attacker capable of consistently punishing the spaces left behind. Marmoush changes that equation completely. The more attention Salah receives, the more opportunities appear elsewhere.

Iran has built its tournament differently.

The draw against Belgium was one of the most disciplined defensive performances of the tournament, and Amir Ghalenoei’s side deserves enormous credit for remaining organized against a team that spent its time camped around the penalty area.

The problem is that defending and chasing a victory are not always compatible ideas. At some point, Iran will need to attack. Which means spaces will appear.

The timing of those moments will decide the group.

Player to Watch: Mohamed Salah

Iran knows exactly where the danger is coming from. That does not make stopping him easier.

The challenge for Egypt is finding him facing goal rather than receiving possession with defenders already waiting to close him down.

That is where Marmoush becomes so important.

The more defenders commit themselves toward Salah, the more opportunities Egypt creates elsewhere. If Iran chooses to double team him near the touchline, central spaces begin opening for runners arriving from midfield. If Iran protects those spaces instead, Salah receives more one-on-one situations than most opponents are comfortable allowing.

Sometimes great players create danger without touching the ball. Salah has become exceptionally good at that part of the game as his career has evolved. His experience may matter as much as his finishing.

Prediction: Egypt 2–1 Iran

The draw against Belgium showed exactly how disciplined and frustrating Iran can be when matches develop on its terms. Egypt may struggle to create clear chances, and Iran has enough attacking quality to punish mistakes if Egypt becomes impatient.

I still have Egypt winning.

Salah and Marmoush give the Pharaohs two players capable of attacking the exact spaces Iran will have to leave behind, and Egypt has looked more balanced than almost anyone expected entering the tournament.

Iran should have moments. Egypt feels better equipped to survive them.

Yesterday answered a lot of questions.

Mexico left no doubt. The hosts closed the group stage with a convincing 3–0 victory over Czechia, finishing with a perfect nine points without conceding a goal. El Tri had already been finding ways to win, but this performance felt different. The attack finally looked as confident as the defense has throughout the tournament. If there were any lingering questions about Mexico’s chances of making a deep run, they are becoming harder to ask.

South Africa delivered the moment of the day.

Needing a win over South Korea to keep its tournament alive, Bafana Bafana found it through Thapelo Maseko’s second-half winner, sending the nation into the World Cup knockout rounds for the first time. South Korea controlled possession after falling behind, but South Africa defended with the kind of urgency that only comes when history is ninety minutes away. Considering the country hosted the tournament in 2010 without advancing beyond the group stage, the moment carried even more weight.

Group C told two very different stories.

Brazil finally looked like the team many expected before the tournament began. The 3–0 win over Scotland was its most complete performance of the World Cup so far, with Vinícius Júnior leading an attack that controlled the match from start to finish instead of relying on isolated moments of brilliance.

Morocco took a far more difficult path.

Haiti led twice. Morocco answered twice. By the time the Atlas Lions completed a 4–2 comeback, they had secured a place in the Round of 32 while also revealing something future opponents will surely notice. The attack has enough quality to rescue almost any match. The defense can still make life more complicated than it needs to be.

Canada also advanced despite a 2–1 defeat to Switzerland. The hosts surrendered first place in Group B, but surviving to the knockout rounds matters far more than finishing with a perfect record.

By the final whistle, Groups A, B and C had been decided, and six more teams had booked their places in the Round of 32.

The World Cup is beginning to narrow.

Germany is chasing a perfect group stage. Ivory Coast is ninety minutes away from making history. Ecuador and Curaçao are running out of chances to extend their tournaments.

Yesterday, several teams learned they had done enough.

Today, everyone else has to prove it.

Here are my predictions, players to watch and tactical storylines for every World Cup Day 15 match.

Germany Has Nothing to Lose. Ecuador Has Everything to Risk.

Two wins from two matches have secured first place in Group E, but don’t expect Julian Nagelsmann to treat this as such. Throughout the week, Germany’s manager has emphasized continuity over rotation, arguing that building chemistry matters more than resting players. Aside from the enforced change caused by Nico Schlotterbeck’s tournament-ending ankle injury, Germany is expected to look very familiar when it takes the field.

Ecuador doesn’t have that luxury.

One point from two matches has left Sebastián Beccacece’s side with almost no margin for error. A scoreless draw against Curaçao followed a narrow defeat to Ivory Coast, leaving them without a goal and needing the kind of performance that can rescue an entire tournament.

That difference in circumstance should shape the match from the opening whistle.

The Germans have looked more comfortable every time they’ve stepped onto the field. Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala continue to drift into spaces that are almost impossible to defend, while Nmecha quietly controls the tempo behind them. Germany waits for opponents to lose their defensive shape before accelerating through the middle or attacking wide with overlapping fullbacks.

Ecuador will try to prevent exactly that.

Beccacece has built a disciplined defensive side around Moisés Caicedo, Willian Pacho and Piero Hincapié. Through two matches, that structure has largely held up. Conceding once to Ivory Coast and limiting Germany’s group rivals to very few clear chances is not the problem. Finding the net is.

For all of Ecuador’s defensive discipline, the final pass has repeatedly let them down. Promising attacks have ended with rushed decisions, misplaced through balls or hesitant finishing. It is an unusual problem for a team that entered the tournament unbeaten in its previous qualifying matches, but it has become impossible to ignore.

That leaves Ecuador facing an uncomfortable choice:

1. Sit deep and Germany will spend ninety minutes probing for openings.

2. Push numbers forward too early and Musiala, Wirtz and Leroy Sané suddenly have the space they have been waiting for.

If I were Beccacece, I’d accept the first scenario.

Germany is talented enough to score against anyone, but opening the match in the first half almost guarantees Ecuador will spend the afternoon chasing shadows. Stay compact, frustrate Germany, and hope the pressure grows as the clock ticks toward the final twenty minutes. That’s probably the only realistic path available.

Germany, meanwhile, has every reason to keep playing the same way it has all tournament. After consecutive group-stage exits in 2018 and 2022, confidence matters just as much as points. Nagelsmann has spoken openly about maintaining rhythm, and it is easy to understand why. This team finally looks comfortable in its own identity again.

The longer Ecuador keeps the score level, the more interesting this match becomes. I just don’t think they’ll be able to do it long enough.

Player to Watch: Moisés Caicedo

If Ecuador pulls off the upset, Moisés Caicedo will almost certainly be the reason.

This isn’t just about stopping Germany’s midfield. It’s about surviving it.

Few players in the world are asked to cover as much ground as Caicedo, and against Germany that workload only grows. Wirtz drifts inside. Musiala appears between the lines. Kai Havertz constantly drops out of the striker’s position to create overloads. Every movement is designed to force defensive midfielders into impossible decisions.

Caicedo doesn’t have the luxury of getting many of those decisions wrong.

When Ecuador wins possession, his role changes immediately. Germany’s counterpress has been one of the tournament’s biggest strengths, often recovering the ball within seconds of losing it. If Caicedo can play through that first wave, Ecuador finally has a chance to attack a defense that will spend far more time moving toward its own goal than it has in the first two matches.

Statistics probably won’t tell the story of his afternoon. He may finish without a goal or an assist. He might not even register a shot.

But if Ecuador is still level after an hour, there’s a good chance Caicedo has quietly been the best player on the field.

Prediction: Germany 2–1 Ecuador

I don’t expect this to look like Germany’s 7–1 win over Curaçao. Ecuador is too organized defensively for that.

For long stretches, I think Germany will have to be patient. Ecuador has enough quality at the back to frustrate opponents, and Beccacece knows opening the match too early would play directly into Germany’s strengths. If the score is still level approaching halftime, I wouldn’t be surprised.

The problem for Ecuador is that defending Germany for ninety minutes is a different challenge than defending them for forty-five.

Eventually, the movement of Wirtz, Musiala and Havertz should create the opening Germany needs. Once that first goal arrives, Ecuador will have little choice but to push higher, and that’s when Germany becomes most dangerous.

Germany doesn’t need the points. It still looks like a team with something to prove.

A third straight victory would extend the winning streak to 12 matches, maintain the momentum Julian Nagelsmann has been eager to preserve, and send Germany into the knockout rounds looking more like a genuine World Cup favorite than simply a group winner.

History Is Waiting for Ivory Coast. Curaçao Wants One More Upset.

Ivory Coast is ninety minutes from something it has never done.

Despite producing generations of elite talent, the Elephants have never reached the World Cup knockout rounds. That opportunity is finally here, and after two encouraging performances, they have earned the chance to finish the job.

The path hasn’t been easy.

A disciplined 1–0 victory over Ecuador was followed by a narrow 2–1 defeat to Germany, a match that revealed just how competitive Emerse Faé’s side can be. Ivory Coast led the group favorites before Germany’s quality eventually took over, but the result did little to damage the belief inside the squad. If anything, it reinforced the idea that this team belongs on this stage.

Faé has said as much throughout the week.

He believes his players have shown enough to deserve a place in the knockout rounds. He’s probably right.

Tournament football doesn’t care what you’ve deserved. It rewards what you do next.

Curaçao has already shown it won’t make that easy.

The World Cup debutants looked overwhelmed in their opening 7–1 defeat to Germany, but they responded with one of the most resilient defensive performances of the tournament. The scoreless draw against Ecuador was built on organization, relentless defending and a record-setting performance from goalkeeper Eloy Room, whose 15 saves kept Curaçao alive. Dick Advocaat left that match convinced his team could frustrate anyone if it defended with the same discipline again.

Ivory Coast has more pace, more attacking quality and more players capable of deciding the game individually. Amad Diallo, Simon Adingra and Yan Diomande have all shown they can create problems in wide areas, while Franck Kessié continues to provide the balance that allows those attackers to play with freedom.

The bigger question is how patient the Elephants remain if the first goal doesn’t come quickly.

Curaçao will almost certainly defend with numbers behind the ball and force Ivory Coast to break down a compact defensive block. That’s exactly the type of match where frustration can become an opponent of its own.

If Ivory Coast starts forcing passes or settling for hopeful shots, Curaçao will happily accept it.

If the Elephants continue trusting their movement and attacking the wide spaces that have served them well throughout the tournament, the opportunities should arrive.

Curaçao’s best hope lies in transition.

Tahith Chong and the runners around him have to give Ivory Coast something to think about every time possession changes hands. Even if Curaçao creates only a handful of chances, it has to create enough of a threat to prevent Ivory Coast from committing everyone forward without consequence.

I don’t think Curaçao can spend another ninety minutes absorbing pressure the way it did against Ecuador.

For Ivory Coast, this feels bigger than one match.

It’s an opportunity to accomplish something generations of talented Ivorian teams couldn’t.

Player to Watch: Yan Diomande

If this match opens up, Yan Diomande will probably be the reason.

The 19-year-old has quietly become one of the breakout players of this World Cup. Germany spent the week preparing for his pace before the teams met in Toronto, and it’s easy to understand why. Few wingers change the tempo of a match as quickly as Diomande does once he has space to attack. His first instinct is to drive at defenders, not slow the game down, and that forces back lines into uncomfortable decisions.

Curaçao knows what’s coming. The challenge is that Diomande is exactly the type of player who can disrupt their structure.

What has impressed me most is how willing he is to keep attacking.

Some young wingers disappear after losing a duel or misplacing a cross. Diomande doesn’t. He asks for the ball again, keeps running at defenders and continues stretching the field until cracks begin to appear. That confidence is a big reason Ivory Coast has looked so dangerous in transition throughout the tournament.

He doesn’t need to score to change this match.

If he consistently forces Curaçao’s back line to shift toward him, Ivory Coast’s other attackers will find the spaces they’re looking for.

That’s exactly the kind of influence that can send the Elephants into the knockout rounds.

Prediction: Ivory Coast 2–0 Curaçao

Curaçao deserves enormous credit for the way it has responded since the opening defeat to Germany.

Many teams would have allowed that result to define their tournament. Instead, Dick Advocaat’s side regrouped, frustrated Ecuador for ninety minutes and proved it belongs on this stage.

I just don’t think it has enough attacking quality to repeat the escape.

Ivory Coast has looked like the second-best team in Group E from the opening matchday. The Elephants defended confidently against Ecuador, competed with Germany and have shown far more ways to create chances than Curaçao has faced outside of Germany.

Room should keep Curaçao in the match for a while, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the score is still level approaching halftime.

But asking him to rescue another ninety minutes against this attack feels like too much. Eventually, Ivory Coast finds the breakthrough.

A second goal arrives as Curaçao begins pushing numbers forward, and the final whistle sends the Elephants into the World Cup knockout rounds for the first time; a milestone that has been decades in the making.

The Netherlands Already Qualified. They’re Still Chasing Something.

The Netherlands have already secured a place in the Round of 32. They’re trying to make the road beyond it a little easier.

After opening the tournament with a frustrating 2–2 draw against Japan, Ronald Koeman’s side responded exactly the way contenders should. A convincing 5–1 victory over Sweden not only restored confidence but also put the Dutch in control of Group F. Japan remains level on points, meaning another win should be enough to finish first and avoid an unnecessarily difficult Round of 32 matchup.

Koeman insists his team isn’t afraid of whoever comes next.

If there’s one thing managers always prefer, it’s controlling the variables they can. Finishing first is one of them.

Tunisia arrives with a very different objective.

Consecutive defeats to Sweden and Japan ended any chance of reaching the knockout rounds, prompting a managerial change midway through the tournament. Hervé Renard inherited an almost impossible situation, but he has made one thing clear ahead of his first match in charge: Tunisia still has something to play for: pride.

That alone makes this a dangerous fixture.

The Netherlands have looked sharper with every match they’ve played. Cody Gakpo has rediscovered his finishing touch, Memphis Depay appears increasingly comfortable despite managing his fitness, and the midfield pairing of Frenkie de Jong and Tijjani Reijnders has quietly controlled games without needing to dominate the headlines.

What has impressed me most, though, is how flexible this team has become.

Against Sweden, the Dutch punished every transition. Against Japan, they showed they could patiently break down a well-organized defense. Those are two completely different challenges, and Koeman’s side handled both without abandoning its identity.

Tunisia hasn’t shown that same adaptability.

The Eagles of Carthage have struggled most when opponents attack quickly after winning possession. Both Sweden and Japan repeatedly exposed the spaces behind Tunisia’s advancing fullbacks, forcing defenders into recovery runs they rarely won. Renard will almost certainly ask his side to defend deeper tonight, even if that means sacrificing long stretches of possession.

It’s probably the right approach.

The alternative is trying to press one of the tournament’s most technically gifted teams across ninety minutes.

I don’t see that ending well.

Still, the Dutch can’t afford to become impatient.

Eliminated teams often play with a freedom qualified teams don’t have, and Denzel Dumfries acknowledged as much this week. Tunisia has nothing to lose. If the Netherlands starts forcing passes or assuming the breakthrough will come naturally, frustration could creep into a match it should otherwise control.

I just don’t expect that to happen.

The Dutch have looked increasingly comfortable every time they’ve stepped onto the field, and another disciplined performance would send them into the knockout rounds with genuine momentum.

Player to Watch: Denzel Dumfries

Tunisia already has enough problems trying to stop Cody Gakpo and Memphis Depay. Now imagine dealing with Denzel Dumfries arriving from deep every few minutes.

That’s what makes him such a difficult player to defend.

On paper, he’s a right back. In reality, he often spends long stretches playing like an extra winger. Against Sweden, those forward runs produced two assists, and every overlap forced defenders into uncomfortable decisions.

Tunisia’s left side has struggled throughout the tournament, particularly when opponents attack immediately after winning possession. That’s exactly where Dumfries thrives.

If Tunisia shifts an extra defender toward Gakpo, Dumfries has space to attack. If they stay compact, he’ll have time to deliver crosses into the box.

I wouldn’t be surprised if he creates several of the Netherlands’ best chances before the night is over.

Prediction: Netherlands 3–0 Tunisia

Renard’s arrival will bring more defensive organization, and national pride alone will ensure this isn’t another passive performance.

Eventually, though, quality wins.

The Netherlands simply have too many attacking options, too much movement and too much at stake to let this opportunity slip away. Once the first goal arrives, Tunisia will have little choice but to push higher, and that’s when Koeman’s side becomes most dangerous.

The Dutch finish first in Group F.

More importantly, they head into the Round of 32 looking like one of the most balanced teams left in the tournament.

The Best Match of Day 15 Might Not Decide First Place. It Might Decide Who No One Wants to Face.

This is the match I’ve been looking forward to most.

Not because it’s the biggest game on the schedule. Because it feels like the best football game on the schedule.

Japan and Sweden arrive from completely different directions. Japan has looked increasingly comfortable with every match, recovering from an opening draw against the Netherlands before beating Tunisia 4–0 with the same composure that has become its trademark under Hajime Moriyasu. Sweden’s path has been much less convincing. A dominant opening win over Tunisia was followed by a humbling 5–1 defeat to the Dutch, leaving Graham Potter’s side needing a response rather than simply another result.

That’s exactly what makes this matchup so interesting. One team is trying to confirm its place among the tournament’s most impressive sides. The other is trying to prove one bad afternoon doesn’t define who it is.

Japan continues to impress because every player seems to understand the role they’re being asked to play. Even with Takefusa Kubo still managing an ankle injury and remaining a game-time decision, the rhythm hasn’t changed. Daichi Kamada has assumed a larger creative role, Junya Ito continues stretching defenses from wide areas and Ayase Ueda has quietly become one of the tournament’s most intelligent movement-based forwards.

Their patience has frustrated opponents throughout the tournament, forcing them to defend for long stretches before Japan suddenly accelerates through the middle or attacks behind the defensive line.

Sweden presents a completely different challenge than Tunisia.

Viktor Gyökeres and Alexander Isak remain one of the most dangerous attacking partnerships in the tournament, and both enter the match fully fit after Gyökeres recovered from the minor knock that briefly raised concerns earlier this week. Potter has spoken about the need for a more compact defensive shape after the loss to the Netherlands, and Sweden should look much more organized than it did five days ago.

It probably has to. Trying to trade chances with Japan feels like the wrong approach.

The area I’ll be watching most isn’t either penalty box. It’s the midfield.

If Japan controls possession through Kamada and Wataru Endo, Sweden could spend another evening chasing the ball instead of creating attacks. But if Dejan Kulusevski finds space between Japan’s midfield and back line, Sweden has enough quality to turn this into the most entertaining match of the group stage.

That’s why I don’t expect another comfortable Japanese victory. Sweden is simply too talented for that.

I do think Japan has looked like the more complete team. Because every match has reinforced the same identity.

That’s usually the sign of a team capable of making a deep World Cup run.

Player to Watch: Daichi Kamada

If Japan wins, Daichi Kamada will be the reason why.

Since Kubo’s injury, Kamada has become the player connecting almost everything Japan does in possession. He consistently finds the spaces that keep attacks moving. The result is a style of play that feels calm even when opponents are pressing aggressively.

Against Sweden, that becomes even more important.

Potter’s side will almost certainly defend with greater discipline than it did against the Netherlands, leaving fewer open lanes through the middle. Kamada’s movement between those lines is what gives Japan another way to progress the ball without relying entirely on speed down the wings.

If Japan spends most of the evening dictating possession, there’s a good chance Kamada is the reason why.

Prediction: Japan 2–1 Sweden

This feels much closer than the predictions suggest.

Sweden has enough attacking talent to trouble any defense left in this tournament, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Isak or Gyökeres found the scoresheet. Potter’s team should look far more organized after the disappointing performance against the Netherlands, and I expect a response.

I just trust Japan a little more.

Through two matches, no team has looked more comfortable adapting to different opponents without sacrificing its identity. Whether controlling possession, pressing high or defending with discipline, Japan has consistently found the right balance.

That’s difficult to do in tournament football.

I think Sweden makes this uncomfortable from start to finish.

In the end, Japan’s patience, movement and control of midfield prove to be the difference.

This has all the ingredients to be the best match of Day 15.

I think Japan edges it.

Australia Wants Time. Paraguay Can’t Afford It.

This is the kind of match the World Cup produces every four years.

One team knows a draw is enough. The other has no choice but to win.

Australia enters the final matchday with the advantage. After beating Türkiye and narrowly losing to the United States, Tony Popovic’s side controls its own destiny. Avoid defeat, and the Socceroos are through to the Round of 32.

Paraguay doesn’t have that luxury.

The victory over Türkiye kept Gustavo Alfaro’s team alive, but it also simplified the equation. Nothing short of three points will do. From the opening whistle, Paraguay has to chase the match. Australia can let it come to them.

That difference changes everything.

Popovic has built a side that’s comfortable defending for long stretches before striking in transition. Australia rarely panics when opponents dominate possession. In many ways, it prefers it. The longer Paraguay commits numbers forward, the more space begins to appear behind the midfield and fullbacks.

That’s exactly where the Socceroos become dangerous.

Miguel Almirón is suspended after FIFA handed him a one-match ban for covering his mouth during an on-field confrontation against Türkiye. Julio Enciso now becomes the creative focal point, while Isidro Pitta will shoulder even more responsibility in the penalty area. Alfaro has spent much of the week emphasizing composure rather than desperation, but replacing Almirón’s experience and pace is no simple task.

Australia isn’t at full strength either, as Jacob Italiano has been ruled out through injury, while veteran winger Mathew Leckie remains unavailable. Even so, Popovic has insisted his team won’t approach the match hoping to protect a draw. The objective, he says, is still to win.

Experience matters in matches like this. Australia has spent the last two decades making a habit of surviving high-pressure tournament moments. Paraguay has plenty of international pedigree of its own, but this particular group hasn’t been in many matches where every minute without a goal increases the pressure.

I’ll be watching the clock.

Every minute that passes without a Paraguayan goal makes the match more comfortable for Australia and more uncomfortable for everyone wearing red and white.

Paraguay has enough quality to create chances. The challenge is finishing them before impatience begins making decisions instead.

Player to Watch: Julio Enciso

If Paraguay reaches the Round of 32, I think we’ll spend tomorrow talking about Julio Enciso.

With Almirón suspended, even more of Paraguay’s attack runs through the Brighton forward. He’s the player capable of receiving the ball under pressure, beating defenders one-on-one and creating something when structured attacks begin to stall.

Don’t be surprised if the Socceroos send extra help toward Enciso whenever he drifts inside. Limiting his touches between the lines may be their biggest defensive priority all evening.

Some attackers disappear when the stakes rise. Enciso usually asks for the ball even more. Paraguay will need that confidence tonight because opportunities probably won’t come often.

He just has to create the moment that keeps Paraguay’s tournament alive.

Prediction: Australia 1–1 Paraguay

This feels like ninety minutes of tension.

Paraguay should control possession, create more chances and spend most of the evening pushing Australia toward its own penalty area. That’s the game state everyone expects.

I’m just not convinced it’s the game state that favors Paraguay.

Australia has looked increasingly comfortable defending compactly before attacking quickly in transition, and the pressure only grows heavier for Paraguay as the clock moves forward. The longer the match stays level, the more desperate Paraguay becomes and the more dangerous Australia’s counterattacks should be.

I think Paraguay finds opportunities. I also think Australia survives.

It might be the most stressful match of Day 15.

The United States Has Already Advanced. The Competition Isn’t Over.

The United States is trying to answer a different question: who deserves to be on the field when the knockout rounds begin?

Mauricio Pochettino has already secured first place in Group D, but Thursday’s match against Türkiye feels anything but meaningless. Four starters carrying yellow cards; Tyler Adams, Antonee Robinson, Chris Richards and Folarin Balogun, won’t start after Pochettino confirmed he isn’t willing to risk losing them for the Round of 32. Christian Pulisic has been cleared after his calf injury, although the U.S. manager has kept everyone guessing about whether he’ll start or come off the bench.

That leaves opportunities all over the field. And opportunities like these don’t usually come twice at a World Cup.

Pochettino summed up his expectations with one sentence this week: he wants players willing to “eat the grass.”

He wants to know who he’ll trust once every mistake becomes season-ending.

That’s why I don’t think this match is really about Türkiye. It’s about the players trying to force their way into Pochettino’s plans.

Türkiye, though, won’t make that easy.

Back-to-back defeats have already ended Vincenzo Montella’s team’s hopes of reaching the knockout rounds, but the Turkish manager has spent the week talking about pride instead of disappointment. He knows the standings won’t change. He also knows a win over one of the tournament hosts would change the way this World Cup is remembered back home.

That makes Türkiye dangerous. It has nothing left to lose.

Here’s what I’ll be watching.

The United States has looked increasingly comfortable attacking quickly after winning possession, with its front line creating problems before opponents can recover their defensive shape. Türkiye has often been at its best when controlling possession, but chasing matches has exposed spaces that Paraguay and Australia both exploited.

I don’t expect the Americans to dominate possession, but I do expect them to attack with purpose whenever the opportunity appears. That’s been one of the biggest changes under Pochettino.

The team no longer waits for matches to happen. It tries to dictate them.

I’ll also be watching for chemistry.

The lineup should look very different from the one that beat Australia, and the United States doesn’t need perfection tonight. It needs to leave Los Angeles with more players capable of contributing when the pressure rises next week.

If that happens, this match will have accomplished exactly what Pochettino wanted.

Player to Watch: Weston McKennie

I think this match matters more for Weston McKennie than almost anyone on the field.

With Tyler Adams expected to begin on the bench, McKennie has another chance to remind everyone why he’s been one of the United States’ most important tournament players over the last several years.

He’s the player who changes matches without always appearing in the highlights. He wins second balls, arrives late in the box, and breaks up attacks before they become dangerous.

And when the tempo starts to drift, he’s usually the one dragging it back in the right direction.

Against a Turkish midfield that still has plenty of technical quality, that influence could matter as much as anything the United States does going forward.

McKennie has a chance to make sure Pochettino can’t imagine starting them without him.

Prediction: United States 2–1 Türkiye

The United States needs ninety more minutes of confidence.

Türkiye should play with freedom now that elimination has already been confirmed, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that leads to a much more open match than many people expect. There are enough talented players on both sides for this to become one of the more entertaining games of the day.

I still trust the U.S.

Pochettino has raised the standard throughout this tournament, and even a rotated lineup should have enough quality to create chances in transition. Türkiye will probably have its moments, especially if the Americans need time to settle with several changes in the lineup.

In the end, I think the United States does enough.

Building momentum before the knockout rounds is worth far more than another three points.

We finally have a scoreboard watching day.

By the end of tonight, Groups A, B and C will be complete. Some teams are playing for first place. Others are playing for survival. A few are simply trying to keep their World Cup alive for another four days.

Every goal, every substitution and every tiebreaker suddenly carries weight. Teams that looked comfortable a few days ago still have work to do. Teams that seemed finished are still clinging to hope. In a tournament that has already delivered surprises, there is no reason to believe the drama is finished now.

A Clash of Styles for Control of Group B

Canada enters the final matchday in the driver’s seat.

After opening the tournament with a draw against Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Canadians responded with one of the most impressive performances of the group stage, beating Qatar 6–0 and moving to the top of Group B. Seven goals through two matches is one of the best attacking returns in the tournament, but Switzerland presents a completely different challenge.

Murat Yakin’s side has conceded only two goals through two matches and rarely looks rushed defensively. Even when Switzerland isn’t controlling games, it tends to dictate the tempo. That becomes even more important with Canada missing Ismaël Koné after his gruesome injury against Qatar. Jesse Marsch now has to find a way to replace one of his most dynamic midfielders against a Swiss midfield led by Granit Xhaka and Remo Freuler, two players who can slow matches down and force opponents to play at their pace.

The battle is fascinating because both teams want very different games. Canada thrives when matches become stretched and transitional, allowing Jonathan David, Tajon Buchanan and Cyle Larin to attack space. Switzerland prefers longer spells of possession and controlled buildup, limiting the number of chaotic moments that can decide a match.

Whichever team succeeds in imposing its style will likely finish atop the group.

Player to watch: Jonathan David

David’s importance in this matchup goes beyond goals.

Canada will not create as many chances as it did against Qatar, which means David’s movement becomes critical. Switzerland’s center backs are experienced enough to handle straightforward runs, so David’s ability to drift between lines, create separation from defenders and link play will be just as important as his finishing.

If Canada is going to turn this into the transition game it wants, David must become an option whenever Switzerland’s press starts to squeeze the midfield. His movement can create space for Buchanan and Larin, while his ability to attack gaps behind the defense remains Canada’s most dangerous weapon.

Against a disciplined Swiss back line, he will likely need to influence the match in multiple ways rather than simply waiting for chances to arrive.

Prediction: Canada 1–1 Switzerland

This feels like one of those matches where both teams spend long stretches canceling each other out.

Canada has more attacking momentum coming into the match and will benefit from another strong crowd, but Switzerland has the experience and defensive structure to avoid being overwhelmed. I expect Canada to create danger through transitions, while Switzerland finds success through longer spells of possession and set pieces.

The Swiss rarely lose their shape, and Canada rarely stops attacking. A draw feels like the most likely outcome, allowing both teams to leave the group stage feeling confident about their chances in the knockout rounds.

One Last Opportunity

Not every match on the final day is about winning a group.

Some are simply about staying alive.

Bosnia and Herzegovina enters the final matchday with one point after drawing Canada and losing to Switzerland. Qatar also has one point, but the 6–0 defeat to Canada leaves them in a significantly worse position on goal difference. For both teams, a draw would likely feel like a defeat.

Bosnia knows it has to attack, but doing so comes with risks. The team has played decent football in stretches throughout the tournament but has struggled to convert possession into chances. Qatar enters the match wounded after its collapse against Canada, but still possesses enough attacking talent through Akram Afif and Edmilson Junior to punish mistakes.

Adding another layer to the story is Edin Džeko, who is set to make his 150th appearance for Bosnia and Herzegovina. Few players in this World Cup mean more to their national team than Džeko does, and there is a certain poetry in seeing him carry Bosnia’s hopes once again.

Qatar also enters shorthanded, with Assim Madibo and Homam Ahmed suspended after the defeat to Canada.

Player to watch: Edin Džeko

Even at 40 years old, Bosnia still looks toward Džeko when the pressure rises.

His value is no longer based on mobility. Instead, it comes from timing, positioning and his understanding of space inside the penalty area. Bosnia will dominate possession, which means Džeko’s ability to occupy center backs, bring midfield runners into the game and attack crosses becomes essential.

Against a Qatar defense that has looked vulnerable under pressure, Džeko’s movement could create opportunities even when he is not directly involved in the final touch. He remains Bosnia’s primary point and the player most capable of turning a tense match into a winning one.

Prediction: Bosnia and Herzegovina 2–1 Qatar

I expect this match to be more open than many of the other games on today’s schedule because neither team benefits much from caution.

Qatar should find opportunities in transition, particularly if Bosnia pushes numbers forward early. However, Bosnia has more attacking quality across the pitch and a striker who has spent two decades delivering in important moments.

It may not be comfortable, but Bosnia should find enough chances to keep its tournament alive.

Scotland’s Biggest Night in a Generation

This is the match I am most excited to watch.

Brazil enters the day at the top of Group C with four points and a positive goal difference, but the performances have not always matched the reputation. The draw against Morocco exposed moments of vulnerability, while the win over Haiti eventually became comfortable, though it never felt completely dominant.

Scotland will take confidence from that.

Steve Clarke’s side has conceded only one goal through two matches and has remained disciplined throughout the tournament. Scotland is not built to overwhelm opponents with possession, but it is built to frustrate them. The compact defensive structure, disciplined midfield positioning and commitment to protecting central areas make Scotland one of the more difficult teams in the tournament to break down.

Brazil still possesses the superior talent, but the tactical challenge is clear. Scotland wants to force Brazil wide, limit central combinations and make every attack feel repetitive. Brazil wants to isolate defenders in one-on-one situations and create moments where individual talent takes over.

With Raphinha unavailable and Neymar’s role still uncertain, even more responsibility falls on Vini Jr.

Player to watch: Vinícius Júnior

Scotland can defend well for 89 minutes. The problem is that Vinícius often needs only one.

What makes him so dangerous is his ability to create chances without needing a perfect buildup around him. If Scotland’s defensive block shifts too slowly, Vinícius can attack the gap. If Scotland pushes forward chasing a result, he becomes even more dangerous in transition.

This feels like the type of game where Brazil’s collective play may not always flow smoothly, making individual quality even more important. Vinícius is the player most capable of turning a frustrating evening into a winning one.

Prediction: Brazil 2–1 Scotland

I think Scotland causes real problems.

Their defensive organization has been one of the best stories of the group stage, and I expect them to remain compact and disciplined for much of the match. Scotland should also create opportunities from set pieces and second balls, areas where Brazil has looked vulnerable.

Still, Brazil’s ceiling is simply higher. Even if Scotland executes its game plan well, Brazil has multiple players capable of producing moments that few teams can defend against. Scotland makes this uncomfortable. Brazil finds a way through.

Morocco Has Earned the Right to Dream

Two matches into the tournament, Morocco looks like one of the most complete teams in Group C.

The draw against Brazil and win over Scotland were not built on luck. Morocco has defended exceptionally well, conceded just one goal and consistently looked organized in every phase of play. More importantly, the team appears comfortable with its identity.

Morocco still has a chance to win the group, which means this match matters. Goal difference could become important depending on what happens in Brazil’s match, so there is little reason for Morocco to approach this conservatively.

Haiti has already been eliminated after losses to Scotland and Brazil, but teams playing without pressure can still be dangerous. Morocco cannot afford to allow the match to remain level deep into the second half.

Player to watch: Achraf Hakimi

Few fullbacks influence matches the way Hakimi does.

Morocco often builds attacks through his movement because he can overlap, underlap, step into midfield and arrive in advanced positions like an extra winger. Against a Haitian side likely to defend deep, Hakimi’s ability to create overloads on the right side becomes even more important.

His pace also allows Morocco to commit numbers forward without exposing itself defensively, giving the team freedom to maintain pressure throughout the match.

If Morocco controls territory the way it wants to, Hakimi will likely be involved in much of the attacking success.

Prediction: Morocco 3–0 Haiti

Morocco has shown too much balance and defensive discipline throughout the tournament for me to pick against them here.

Haiti will compete and should make life difficult early, but Morocco’s ability to sustain pressure and create advantages in wide areas should eventually break the match open. I expect Morocco to remain patient, control possession and create enough chances to secure a comfortable victory while keeping pressure on Brazil in the race for first place.

Mexico Has the Group. Czechia Needs Everything.

Mexico has already secured first place in Group A. That makes this one of the more unusual matches of the tournament.

The pressure sits almost entirely on Czechia, which enters the day with one point and likely needs a victory to keep its World Cup hopes alive. Mexico has already accomplished its objective but still needs to sharpen its performance before the knockout rounds begin.

Javier Aguirre has been open about wanting more from his team despite the perfect record. Mexico has scored only three goals in two matches and has not always looked as fluid in attack as its talent suggests.

Czechia’s approach should be straightforward. At some point, it will have to chase the game. That urgency could create opportunities, but it could also create the spaces Mexico prefers to attack.

Player to watch: Santiago Giménez

This feels like a match built for a striker.

Czechia’s physical defenders will make life difficult, but Giménez has the movement and instincts to exploit the moments when defensive structure begins to break down. Mexico has sometimes lacked a true focal point in the penalty area, and Giménez provides exactly that.

Whether he starts or enters later, his ability to attack crosses, make near-post runs and capitalize on second balls could be decisive against a Czech side that cannot afford to sit back.

Mexico may not create a huge number of chances, but Giménez is the type of player who can make one chance enough.

Prediction: Mexico 2–1 Czechia

The more I think about this match, the harder it becomes to see Czechia leaving without a goal.

The urgency of their situation should force them forward, and Mexico’s likely rotation could create opportunities. Czechia has scored in both of its previous matches and possesses enough size and physicality to threaten from set pieces.

Mexico remains the better team, particularly in midfield and attack, but this feels less like a comfortable group-stage win and more like a competitive match where both teams find moments. Czechia scores. Mexico still finds a way to take all three points.

Ninety Minutes from History

The final match of the day may carry the highest stakes.

South Korea enters with three points and controls its own destiny. South Africa sits on one point and needs a victory to keep its dream alive.

That should create one of the most intense matches of the group stage.

South Africa has competed well throughout the tournament, pushing Mexico and drawing Czechia, but the team has struggled to consistently turn good moments into goals. South Korea has shown more attacking quality, though it has also experienced stretches where controlling games became difficult.

The midfield battle feels decisive. South Africa needs energy, pressure and disruption. South Korea wants composure, possession and patience.

Whoever succeeds in creating the type of match they prefer will likely advance.

Player to watch: Son Heung-min

Big tournaments often come down to big players.

Son gives South Korea a level of calm few teams possess. He can receive under pressure, carry the ball through midfield and finish chances that others would waste. Against a South African side likely to play with urgency and emotion, that composure could become invaluable.

South Korea may not create many clear opportunities if the match remains tight. That is exactly why Son matters. He is one of the few players capable of turning a half-chance into a decisive moment.

Prediction: South Korea 3–1 South Africa

I expect South Africa to make this incredibly difficult.

The energy and desperation should create a fast, emotional match, and South Africa has enough athleticism to cause problems in transition. I also think they find a goal.

Ultimately, I trust South Korea’s attacking quality more. Son feels like the type of player who delivers when everything is on the line, and South Korea has shown enough structure throughout the group stage to survive the pressure and move into the knockout rounds.

To Scott and everyone else who has been reading along: apologies for disappearing for a few days. Traveling back to the United States after covering matches in Mexico, combined with an unfortunate stomach bug, meant Days 11 through 13 never got written the way I wanted them to.

So consider this a catch-up edition.

We’ve got statement wins, surprise results, knockout scenarios starting to take shape, and Colombia playing a match that suddenly feels a lot bigger than it did a week ago.

Let’s get back to it.

Early in the tournament, every game feels like an introduction. Now, every result changes the math. Some teams are already through. Some are almost there. Others are one mistake away from spending the final group match hoping for help from somewhere else.

Since Day 10, the tournament has moved quickly.

The Netherlands turned a tricky-looking match against Sweden into a statement, winning 5–1 behind braces from Brian Brobbey and Cody Gakpo. Sweden had looked dangerous after scoring five against Tunisia, but the Dutch made them look ordinary. That is the kind of result that changes how people talk about a team. The Netherlands looked like a team that might be growing into the tournament.

Germany also found a way, but in a very different style. Ivory Coast led through Franck Kessié and looked capable of handing Germany a real problem. Then Deniz Undav came off the bench, scored twice, and gave Germany a 2–1 win that felt more useful than the 7–1 opener against Curaçao. Easy wins are fun. Comebacks tell you more.

Ecuador, meanwhile, missed a huge opportunity. A 0–0 draw with Curaçao left them with one point from two matches and no margin for error. Curaçao deserves credit, especially after losing heavily to Germany, but Ecuador entered this tournament with real dark-horse energy. Right now, that feels much further away.

Japan closed Day 10 by making history in the 1,000th men’s World Cup match. Even without Takefusa Kubo, Japan beat Tunisia 4–0 and looked organized, confident, and ruthless. Daichi Kamada stepped into a bigger role, Japan’s depth showed, and Tunisia’s tournament continued to fall apart.

Then Day 11 added even more.

Spain finally woke up, beating Saudi Arabia 4–0 with Lamine Yamal scoring his first World Cup goal and Mikel Oyarzabal responding after a quiet opener. Belgium and Iran played out a 0–0 draw that left Belgium still searching for rhythm. Cape Verde somehow did it again, holding Uruguay to a 2–2 draw after already taking a point from Spain. Kevin Pina scored the country’s first World Cup goal, Hélio Varela equalized after halftime, and Cape Verde remained unbeaten through two matches against Spain and Uruguay.

That sentence still sounds fake. It is not.

Egypt finished the day by making history of its own. After falling behind to New Zealand, Egypt came back to win 3–1 for its first-ever World Cup victory. Mohamed Salah scored, assisted, and gave Egypt the kind of night it had waited generations to experience.

Day 12 kept the pressure going.

Argentina beat Austria 2–0, and Lionel Messi made more history because apparently that is just what he (still) does now. He missed an early penalty, then scored twice anyway, moving to 18 career World Cup goals and standing alone at the top of the tournament’s scoring chart. Argentina is through to the knockout rounds, and Messi still looks like the center of everything.

France had to wait through a long weather delay against Iraq, but once the match resumed, the result felt inevitable. Kylian Mbappé scored twice in a 3–0 win, Ousmane Dembélé added another, and France joined the group of teams already looking comfortable. The halftime delay lasted more than two hours because of thunderstorms and lightning, but France never really lost control.

Norway then survived one of the best games of the round, beating Senegal 3–2. Erling Haaland scored twice, Marcus Pedersen added another, and Norway reached the knockout stage for the first time since 1998. Senegal fought, Ismaïla Sarr scored twice, and the match had the kind of late tension that makes group-stage moments feel bigger than it should. But for Senegal, it was another painful result.

Jordan and Algeria closed the night with everything on the line, and for a moment, Jordan looked ready to pull off something special. Nizar Al-Rashdan gave Jordan its first-ever World Cup lead in the first half, but Algeria responded after the break.

Nadhir Benbouali equalized from a Riyad Mahrez corner before Amine Gouiri scored the winner late to secure a 2–1 victory. Jordan’s World Cup debut will end in the group stage. Algeria, meanwhile, is back in the race and heads into a decisive final match against Austria with knockout hopes still alive.

Now attention turns to today.

Portugal needs a response. England and Ghana meet with control of Group L on the line. Croatia and Panama are trying to save their tournaments. Colombia can take a major step toward the knockout rounds. The pressure is here.

Portugal Needs to Look Like Portugal

Portugal’s first match was not a disaster. But it was close enough to make people uncomfortable.

A 1–1 draw with DR Congo was not what anyone expected from a team with this much talent. Portugal had the ball, created chances, and still never fully settled into the match after the opening stages. The problem was that Portugal lost structure once DR Congo started pushing back.

Uzbekistan already gave Colombia a difficult match, even in a 3–1 loss. They pressed, competed, scored the country’s first World Cup goal, and showed they are not here just to enjoy a debut. Teams like that can make favorites uncomfortable if the favorite starts slowly or becomes impatient.

Portugal should still win this match. The talent gap is obvious. Cristiano Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, and Rafael Leão give Roberto Martínez more than enough quality to control the game.

Portugal should also have Rúben Dias back after he missed the opener, which matters for a team that looked less settled than expected against DR Congo.

Portugal needs to remind people why it entered the tournament as one of the favorites.

Player to watch: Bruno Fernandes

Cristiano Ronaldo will always draw the attention. But this match feels like it belongs to Bruno Fernandes.

Portugal needs control and better decision-making in the final third. Bruno is the player most capable of giving them all three. He can switch play, find Ronaldo early, arrive at the edge of the box, and punish Uzbekistan when they leave spaces.

Against DR Congo, Portugal looked dangerous in moments but not always connected. Bruno has to connect them. If he plays well, Portugal should look much closer to the team everyone expected.

Prediction: Portugal 2–0 Uzbekistan

I expect Portugal to respond.

Uzbekistan will compete, and they have already shown they can make talented teams work. But Portugal has too many players who can decide a match, and the pressure from the opening draw should sharpen them.

This feels like a controlled win rather than a blowout. Portugal gets the result it needs.

Control of Group L Is Waiting

England’s opener was fun. It was also messy.

A 4–2 win over Croatia gave England three points and plenty of confidence. Harry Kane scored twice, Jude Bellingham looked influential, and Thomas Tuchel’s team showed the kind of attacking variety England supporters have been waiting to see at a major tournament.

But the defensive issues were real.

Croatia caused problems, especially in transition, and Tuchel has already admitted England needs to defend better. That matters against Ghana because Ghana is not going to try to play like Croatia. Ghana will be direct, physical, and dangerous on the counter. They already beat Panama 1–0, and while that performance was not perfect, three points gave them a real opportunity.

The winner of this match takes control of Group L.

England has more quality. Ghana has enough pace and belief to make the match uncomfortable. If England plays with the same attacking confidence and better defensive control, it should win. If it loses shape, Ghana has the tools to punish them.

England also enters this one without major injury concerns, with Bukayo Saka back in full training after his Achilles issue.

Player to watch: Jude Bellingham

This is the kind of match where Bellingham’s influence matters in both directions.

England needs him to connect midfield and attack, arrive in dangerous areas, and help Kane avoid being isolated. But they also need his energy without the ball. Ghana will look for transition moments, and Bellingham’s ability to press, recover, and slow counters could be just as important as anything he does in the final third.

There are games where he becomes a scorer. There are games where he becomes the emotional center of the team. This might need a little bit of both.

Prediction: England 2–1 Ghana

Ghana will make this hard.

They have pace, physicality, and enough attacking quality to force England into uncomfortable moments. Antoine Semenyo and the wide players can test England if the spaces open.

But England has too many ways to score.

Kane, Bellingham, Rashford, Saka, Foden, Gordon; whoever starts, the attacking depth is real. I think Ghana scores or at least makes England sweat, but England eventually finds enough control to win.

Last Chance for Control

This is the game where the tournament can start slipping away.

Panama lost 1–0 to Ghana. Croatia lost 4–2 to England. Neither team is out, but both know the situation. Another defeat would make the final group match feel almost impossible.

Croatia has more experience, more tournament history, and more technical quality. Even after the England loss, there were moments where Croatia looked capable of causing problems. The issue was not whether they could play. The issue was whether they could handle England’s speed and pressure for long enough.

Panama’s challenge is different. They need to find a goal.

The Ghana match was close, but close does not mean much if you leave with nothing. Panama will likely try to stay compact, frustrate Croatia, and hope the match becomes tight enough for one moment to matter.

That is the danger for Croatia. If they score early, the game could open. If they do not, nerves will grow.

Player to watch: Luka Modrić

At some point, every tournament gives Modrić one more test. This one is about control.

Croatia needs him to slow the match down, dictate tempo, and keep the team from becoming desperate. Against England, Croatia had moments but could not fully manage the game. Against Panama, they should have more of the ball. That puts the responsibility on Modrić to make sure possession becomes chances.

He does not need to run the match the way he did ten years ago. He just needs to manage it better than everyone else.

He usually does.

Prediction: Croatia 2–0 Panama

Croatia should win.

Panama will fight, and they are good enough defensively to make this annoying. But Croatia has more quality in midfield, more experience in tournament pressure, and more ways to create chances.

This feels like a professional and experienced response. Not spectacular. But necessary.

Hot Heart, Cool Head

After missing Qatar 2022, Colombia has a chance to book its place in the knockout rounds. That is not something I take for granted.

Colombia returned to the World Cup with a 3–1 win over Uzbekistan that was not perfect but was encouraging. They had to respond to pressure, stay calm after uncomfortable moments, and trust their quality.

That matters because DR Congo will not be easy.

They held Portugal to a 1–1 draw in their opener and showed exactly why they are dangerous. They can defend in numbers, attack quickly, and turn one transition into a problem. Coach Néstor Lorenzo has already warned Colombia about DR Congo’s 5-3-2 shape and counterattacking threat.

He is right to be careful.

This is the kind of match Colombia should win, but it is also the kind of match that can become complicated if emotions take over. Colombia will likely have more of the ball. DR Congo will likely wait for mistakes. The longer the match stays level, the more dangerous it becomes.

Lorenzo’s message is the right one. Hot heart. Cool head. That feels like the perfect way to describe Colombia at a World Cup.

Player to watch: Luis Díaz

Luis Díaz was excellent in the opener, scoring and assisting in a match where Colombia needed someone to keep attacking even when things got uncomfortable.

This game may ask for something different.

Against DR Congo, Díaz will have to be patient. He may not get constant space. He may face a back line designed to limit transition chances and force Colombia into slower buildup. That means his decision-making matters as much as his explosiveness.

When to take on defenders. When to combine. When to shoot. When to wait.

Díaz is Colombia’s most dangerous player, but he is also becoming more than that. He is becoming the player opponents fear before the match even starts.

That is a different kind of responsibility.

This is usually the part where I tell you what I think will happen.

But Colombia matches are different.

I’ve spent this entire tournament trying to analyze everything: formations, matchups, players, trends, who has the edge and why.

For ninety minutes tonight, I don’t really want to do that.

I want to hear the anthem. I want to see the yellow shirts take over another stadium. I want to celebrate every tackle like it matters too much and complain every time Colombia tries one pass too many.

There are plenty of people who can tell you what Colombia should do. Tonight, I just want to watch what they actually do.

And hopefully, by the end of the night, we’re all singing again.

The group stage is moving fast, and the teams that hesitate are starting to pay for it. Portugal needs a response. England needs control. Croatia needs survival. Colombia needs maturity.

That is the word that keeps coming back. Maturity. Not just talent. Not just emotion. Not just stars.

The teams that understand the moment without being overwhelmed by it are the teams that move forward. Today will tell us who is ready.

Opening games can lie. A great first performance can disappear quickly. A bad one can be fixed. But once teams play their second match, the tournament becomes less about introductions and more about consequences.

Day 9 gave us that.

The United States proved it could win without Christian Pulisic, beating Australia 2–0 in Seattle and qualifying for the Round of 32 with a group match still to play. It was not the most beautiful performance, but it might have been one of the most important for the USMNT. Cameron Burgess’ own goal gave the Americans the lead, Alex Freeman added a second before halftime, and the U.S. kept its first clean sheet in eleven matches.

Brazil also got the response it needed. After opening with a draw against Morocco, the five-time champions beat Haiti 3–0 behind two goals from Matheus Cunha and another from Vinícius Júnior. Haiti competed, but Brazil looked like Brazil again.

Morocco continued to show that 2022 was not a one-time story, beating Scotland 1–0 after Ismael Saibari scored just 71 seconds into the match. Scotland improved after halftime, but Morocco’s early quality and defensive control were enough.

Then Paraguay saved its tournament and ended Türkiye’s.

Matías Galarza scored after just 64 seconds, Miguel Almirón was sent off in the second half, and Paraguay somehow survived 32 Turkish shots to win 1-0. It was chaotic, desperate, emotional, and exactly the kind of match that reminds you why the World Cup can be so cruel.

Now Day 10 arrives with two groups that could look completely different by the end of the night.

The Group F Test Arrives Early

This might be the best match of the day.

Sweden opened its tournament with a 5–1 win over Tunisia, one of the most convincing performances of the first round. The Netherlands, meanwhile, had to settle for a 2–2 draw against Japan after conceding late. The result did not ruin the Dutch’s aspirations, but it did make this match feel much bigger.

The Netherlands has talent everywhere. That has never been the question.

Ronald Koeman’s team wants to control matches through possession and structure, but Sweden does not need the ball to hurt opponents. Viktor Gyökeres and Alexander Isak are good enough to punish a single mistake, and Sweden looked killer in transition against Tunisia.

That’s why this game is so interesting. Is Sweden really one of the most dangerous teams in Group F? Are the Netherlands ready to be taken seriously as contenders?

Those questions will be asked today.

Player to watch: Viktor Gyökeres

I could pick Alexander Isak here. Honestly, either answer works.

But I keep coming back to Gyökeres because of the way this match could unfold. The Netherlands will probably have more possession, which means Sweden’s forwards may spend long stretches waiting for the right moment.

Gyökeres is built for that.

He’s physical enough to occupy defenders, quick enough to run into space, and ruthless enough to turn one chance into a goal.

The Dutch defense cannot switch off. Not once. If Sweden wins, I would not be surprised if Gyökeres is the reason.

Prediction: Netherlands 2–2 Sweden

I want to pick a winner, but this feels like a draw.

The Netherlands should respond after the Japan match and create enough chances to score. But Sweden has too much attacking quality to disappear, especially if the Dutch leave space behind their midfield.

Both teams walk away with a point. Both teams probably feel like they should have had more.

Germany Gets a Real Test

Germany’s opener was almost too easy.

A 7–1 win over Curaçao gave the four-time champions the perfect start, but it also left us with questions. It is hard to know exactly what Germany is after a match like that.

One of the weird things about World Cups is how quickly expectations change. Germany looked unstoppable four days ago.

Beat Ivory Coast and people start whispering about a title run. Lose, and suddenly everyone remembers the last two tournaments. That’s the reality facing Julian Nagelsmann’s side.

Ivory Coast will ask different questions than Curaçao did. The African champions opened with a 1–0 win over Ecuador and showed exactly why they remain one of the most athletic and organized teams in the tournament.

Germany will probably have more possession. Ivory Coast will probably have more opportunities to counter. That is what makes this match compelling.

Germany needs to prove the opener wasn’t simply a mismatch.

Player to watch: Jamal Musiala

Germany may need Musiala more than it did against Curaçao. The spaces will be tighter. Ivory Coast is too disciplined to allow Germany endless opportunities in transition. That’s where Musiala becomes special.

His ability to dribble through midfield traffic makes him the type of player who can change a game that feels stuck.

Ivory Coast will try to make Germany uncomfortable. Musiala is the player who can make that disappear.

Prediction: Germany 2–1 Ivory Coast

I think Germany wins. I also think this is much harder than the opener.

Ivory Coast has enough speed and defensive structure to make Germany work for everything. I would not be surprised if they score.

But Germany has more ways to hurt opponents. At some point, that usually matters.

No Room Left for Errors

Ecuador entered this World Cup as one of the dark horses. Two matches in, they’re staring at the possibility of an early exit.

That’s how quickly tournaments change.

After losing 1–0 to Ivory Coast, this match is close to a requirement. Ecuador doesn’t need to win beautifully. It just needs to win. The pressure belongs entirely to Ecuador.

Curaçao lost 7–1 to Germany, but Ecuador coach Sebastián Beccacece has already warned against expecting the same kind of result.

He’s right. Ecuador isn’t Germany.

Curaçao still has pride, still has players eager to prove they belong, and still has the freedom that comes from having nothing to lose.

This is where teams with knockout-round ambitions have to be professional.

Player to watch: Moisés Caicedo

Ecuador’s night will be decided in the midfield. That’s why I’m watching Moisés Caicedo.

The temptation against Curaçao will be to attack relentlessly and chase goals. Caicedo has to make sure Ecuador stays balanced.

He gives Ecuador a sense of control when emotions threaten to take over. It’s not the flashiest role. But it might be the most important one.

Prediction: Ecuador 2–0 Curaçao

I don’t think this becomes a blowout.

Curaçao will want to respond after the Germany loss, and Ecuador isn’t usually a team that wins by five or six goals. But Ecuador should have enough quality.

The first goal matters. If Ecuador gets it early, the night becomes much easier. If not, expect some nerves.

Match No. 1,000

Sometimes the schedule gives a game extra meaning. Japan vs Tunisia will be the 1,000th men’s World Cup match.

That’s the kind of statistic people forget immediately if the game is boring.

Fortunately, Japan rarely plays boring World Cup matches.

The Japanese opened with a dramatic 2–2 draw against the Netherlands, coming from behind twice and showing the resilience that has become part of their identity at major tournaments. Keito Nakamura scored the first equalizer, Daichi Kamada headed home the second, and Japan left Arlington believing it could compete with anyone in Group F.

Tunisia enters in a completely different place.

A 5–1 defeat to Sweden led to the dismissal of Sabri Lamouchi, and now Hervé Renard takes charge with barely any time to prepare. Tunisia still has experienced players like Ellyes Skhiri and Hannibal Mejbri, but the margin for error is disappearing.

Japan has its own challenge.

Takefusa Kubo is expected to miss the match with a knee injury suffered against the Netherlands, forcing Hajime Moriyasu to adjust his attack. The solution is moving Ritsu Doan into a more advanced role while Junya Ito and Daichi Kamada take on more creative responsibility.

That might actually tell us something important about Japan.

This team has spent years building depth. The stars are recognizable, but the collective is what makes Japan dangerous. Even without Kubo, Moriyasu still has Kamada, Ayase Ueda, Keito Nakamura, Daizen Maeda, and Junya Ito available.

That’s a lot of answers for one injury. And it might be why Japan is quietly becoming one of the tournament’s more interesting teams.

Player to watch: Daichi Kamada

A week ago, Kamada probably wouldn’t have been my answer. Now he absolutely is.

The Crystal Palace midfielder scored the dramatic late equalizer against the Netherlands and has become one of Japan’s most important players. He’s controls matches from deeper areas, helping Japan stay balanced when games become chaotic. Kamada himself has credited his recent evolution to lessons learned under Oliver Glasner, and it’s showing on the biggest stage.

Without Kubo, Japan will need someone to carry more responsibility. Kamada feels ready for it. This is the kind of match where a player quietly becomes one of the stories of the tournament.

Prediction: Japan 2–0 Tunisia

Tunisia should be more organized under Renard. It has to be.

But Japan is the better team, and the draw against the Netherlands should give it confidence. Tunisia will probably defend deeper and make this uncomfortable early, but Japan has too much movement, too much depth, and too many players capable of finding solutions.

On a night that marks World Cup history, Japan takes a major step toward the knockout rounds.

And Daichi Kamada might become a much bigger name outside Japan than he already is.