There was yet another rain delay Saturday. After two goals in the opening nine minutes, I thought Charlotte was headed to a comfortable win. Columbus has never won at Bank of America Stadium, and it was hard to judge our shape with so much happening so quickly. We looked pretty good. It seems like Columbus always struggles to play well in Charlotte.

Brandt Bronico scored after 29 seconds. Liel Abada made it 2-0 from the penalty spot in the ninth minute.

Bronico runs more than anyone else. He has the technical ability to go with it too. I’m surprised he has not gotten more minutes this season. The UNC Charlotte grad has been ready whenever Charlotte has needed him. He has grit, he plays for the badge and supporters love him. The Mayor references in the supporter thread were not a surprise.

His goal was not only about effort. David Schnegg moved down the left, Idan Toklomati occupied the central defenders and Bronico timed his run beyond the striker. Dean Smith said Charlotte had worked on those runs from its No. 8s during the week.

What happened after 2-0

After the lead, the team started to drop back a lot, and had a strong feeling that the Columbus goal was coming soon. Dean mentioned changing the tactics around the hydration break, but I still saw the wingers drop very deep and depend on our counterattacking. At times it looked like there was a line of five across the midfield.

“The hydration break gave me the opportunity to talk to the players and just rejig the game plan a little bit,” Smith said, “because I just felt that we’d just dropped off and were a little bit too passive.”

Toklomati was left by himself, and most of the clearances came straight back. Charlotte looked compact, but Columbus was still able to keep the team stuck near its own box.

The goal came in the 41st minute. Brooks Lennon crossed from the right and Chase Adams headed it past Kahlina.

Once Adams scored, I didn’t think Charlotte would score again. The team tends to settle into moments where it lacks creativity after dropping into a defensive shape. Columbus kept collecting the ball and starting another attack.

Columbus controlled possession and territory but was not able to convert. The Crew took a bunch of shots, had many touches in Charlotte’s box and forced Kahlina to stay involved. Eleven Columbus shots were blocked, and only four were on target. Charlotte gave up a lot of volume, but its own chances were cleaner. Expected goals on target accounts for where an on-target shot was placed, which helps show the difference in finishing.

What Saint-Maximin changed

Charlotte needed somebody who could keep the ball long enough to get the team out. Saint-Maximin gave them that.

Saint-Maximin looked great, and you can tell that he is still getting used to the turf field, something he mentioned in the press conference. His first touch under pressure, quick turns and passing quality immediately stood out. He had sparks of brilliance during his 45-minute appearance, and it seems like he will only get better. He is by far the most talented player on the pitch, but the adjustment period may hold him back for a bit.

He did not stop Columbus from controlling possession, but he could take a pass with a defender close to him and move Charlotte up the field. After almost every first-half clearance came back, that mattered.

Saint-Maximin played the pass that got Charlotte moving on the third goal. Rodolfo Aloko attacked the open space and found Pep Biel, who finished in the 73rd minute. Aloko deserves credit too. He seems to bring something positive almost every time he comes off the bench.

Biel still belongs in the middle

I am not sure why Dean Smith keeps playing Biel on the right and then having to use substitutions or tactical changes to shift him more toward the middle, as that is where he plays the best. Smith brought up the Chicago match, when Biel started on the right, scored and took five or six shots. That is fair, but I still prefer him inside, especially if Saint-Maximin gives Charlotte a natural wide player.

Biel was not at his best Saturday, but he still scored his 10th goal of the season and now has a goal contribution in six straight matches.

What Charlotte still has to solve

The pressure Columbus created also showed where Charlotte’s roster is still thin.

We desperately need a striker. Dean talked about how Charlotte is looking to sign someone after Kerwin Vargas’ departure, so I am hoping we can sign a striker. We have known that we need one for so long. Against Columbus, the problem showed up whenever Charlotte cleared the ball and had nobody who could hold it long enough to give the defense a break.

Westwood is playing way too many minutes. While he is playing extremely well and is very important to the squad, he tends to get tired during the final 20 minutes. That becomes harder to hide when Charlotte defends this deeply. There is also a chance of injury or fatigue after playing so much, so often.

Charlotte goes to Toronto on Wednesday and then plays D.C. United Saturday. Bronico gave Charlotte the early run it needed, and Saint-Maximin gave the team an escape once Columbus took control. It was still a very good win, but the 3-1 score should not make us forget how uncomfortable everything between those moments felt.

Ashley Westwood put it simply.

“We were lucky to go in nil-nil.”

I still don’t know how Charlotte got to halftime tied. They stepped down and played to Atlas’ level, a common theme we’ve seen since the early days. Atlas should have made them pay for it.

The numbers bother me. Atlas had 63 percent of the ball. Nine shots each. Four on target each. Even the touches in the box finished 13–13. That is not what a comfortable 2–0 win usually looks like.

Miller made four saves. I keep coming back to the one before halftime. Without it, maybe none of the second-half stuff happens. Dean Smith is chasing a goal instead of changing the game on his terms.

Smith had seen enough. Liel Abada came on at halftime, with Pep Biel moving inside. Tyger Smalls, Luca de la Torre and Idan Toklomati followed in the 59th minute.

“I just felt Pep wasn’t in the game at all on the side,” Smith said. “So I wanted to get him inside and change the shape back to a 2-1 in midfield. I thought that helped us in the second half.”

Westwood saw the same problem. “We didn’t deal with the man-to-man very well, so he switched Pep inside, put him as the 10, then we dropped the two sixes. It changed the way they could press us and I think we were much better second half.”

It worked.

Smalls won the ball high and sent a low cross through the box. Abada continued his back-post run and finished it as Charlotte finally found the lead.

Smith noticed the same part of the play.

“We speak about the pass from the center back to the fullback, and he goes and wins the press and puts the great ball into the box,” he said.

Atlas, looking for a last-minute equalizer, sent goalkeeper Camilo Vargas upfield as a hail mary attempt. Charlotte were able to clear, and Smalls found himself running towards the net with lots of grass and no defenders ahead of him. 2–0.

I’ve been hard on Tyger before. His speed has never been the question. The issue has been what happens after he gets into a good position. Too many of those runs have ended with a heavy touch or a cross that never finds anyone. Friday was different.

What I liked most about the assist was that Smalls created it himself. He saw the pass going toward Atlas’ left side, attacked it early and won the ball before the defender could settle. From there, he didn’t rush. He looked across the box and played the ball into the area Abada was already attacking.

Smalls had already noticed the opening before he came on.

“I think towards the point of me coming on, there was a lot of space down the right side to exploit the left back,” he said. “I felt like it was a good opportunity for me to show what I can do and try getting behind and getting towards the box.”

The second goal was easier, but I was still waiting for something to go wrong during the run. There was too much open grass and too much time to think. Smalls kept it simple and finished it.

Smith defended him afterward.

“I think Tyger’s always got unfair criticism. I know the talent that he’s got, and unfortunately for him, as with other young wide players as well, we’ve had designated players in them positions, so it’s hard for them to break in. And when they do, they don’t get lots of minutes.”

Westwood went even further.

“Tyger’s probably won us the game tonight, which is what you ask from your subs,” he said. “They’re there to make a difference when they go on. And Tyger did that.”

I think he did. Charlotte didn’t have a goal before Smalls entered the match. By the end, he had created one and scored the other.

Smith was not all praise.

“I think sometimes it’s that focus element that he needs more,” Smith said. “There were moments today still where he probably weren’t as focused as he could have been, but for the goal, a brilliant press in action.”

That can’t be ignored. I haven’t questioned whether Smalls belongs. I have questioned whether the runs will end with something. Against Atlas, they did.

This was not Smalls’ first good night of the week. He scored against Pumas three days earlier. “A lot of times you get judged off goals and assists,” Smalls said. “It’s been good to get two in two, but most importantly, get the two wins as well.” “Obviously we’ve still got a job to do on Tuesday night,” Smalls said. “Hopefully we can go into that with confidence. Obviously it’s here as well, so yeah, looking forward to it.”

Two good nights do not erase every concern I’ve had about him. They do earn him another opportunity. Charlotte needed someone to change the pace of the match, and Smalls did it.

The lineup worried me.

When Charlotte FC released its starting eleven against Pumas, I thought Dean Smith might be taking too much of a risk. Tyler Miller was in goal. Will Cleary started at right back. Rodolfo Aloko was on the left, Archie Goodwin started through the middle and Brandt Bronico returned to the midfield. Tim Ream and Henry Kessler had never started together.

This was the opening match of Leagues Cup, and only four of the 18 MLS teams will advance. Charlotte lost its first game in each of the previous two tournaments. Pumas had scored five goals against Juárez a few days earlier.

Rotation made sense with three matches in eight days. I just wasn’t sure this was the right game for so much of it.

My opinion aged badly.

Charlotte won 3–0. Bronico scored the first goal, Goodwin added the second and Tyger Smalls converted a penalty after coming off the bench. I didn’t have any of those three on my imaginary list of potential scorers.

Pep Biel played 71 minutes. He didn’t score, and he wasn’t credited with an assist. Charlotte was fine.

That’s where this game connects to what I wrote after the loss in Chicago. I argued that Charlotte was missing another star. I still believe the roster needs a player who can take control when a match starts slipping away. Chicago had Robert Lewandowski. When Charlotte’s early control disappeared, Lewandowski decided the game.

Pumas was a different experience. Charlotte didn’t find a new star overnight, but the burden moved around the team. Pep was still involved. He occupied defenders and helped Charlotte combine in the attacking half. He wasn’t responsible for every dangerous moment.

There’s a difference between building an attack around your best player and expecting him to rescue it every week. Charlotte has crossed that line too often.

Against Pumas, other players gave Pep some help.

Aloko was the first one who stood out to me. He wasn’t clean with every touch, and a couple of his attacks went nowhere. I didn’t mind. He continued asking for the ball and running at his defender.

I’ve watched too many Charlotte possessions slow down when a winger receives the ball. The player stops, looks inside and sends it backward. Aloko usually tried to go somewhere.

“I felt like every time I got the ball, I could do more,” he said after the match.

You could see that belief in him. Aloko stayed wide enough to stretch the back line, which gave David Schnegg more room to move forward. When Pumas stepped up, Charlotte played into the space behind it. When the defenders began dropping sooner, Charlotte found shorter passes through midfield.

Smith said Aloko was a constant threat. That was probably the best description of his performance. The end product will need to improve, but Pumas had to keep paying attention to him.

Charlotte also used its direct passes better than it has in some MLS matches.

I’ve complained plenty about the hopeful long ball that gives possession away and forces Charlotte to defend again. The passes against Pumas had a purpose. Goodwin was already moving. Aloko was trying to get behind the fullback. Charlotte was attacking a specific weakness rather than clearing the ball and calling it an attack.

Bronico’s goal wasn’t nearly that organized.

I had to watch the replay again to understand how it went in. The ball rebounded into Bronico and ended up behind Keylor Navas. Bronico knew very little about the final touch.

If the same goal had gone against Charlotte, I would have called it unlucky. It went in Charlotte’s favor, so I’ll call it lucky and move on.

There was still something worth examining before the bounce.

I asked Smith about the goal afterward. My question was about the mix of luck, preparation and the effort Bronico brings when he plays.

“You can say there was luck about it, but he’s in the right area,” Smith said.

Charlotte’s midfielders had been told to enter the penalty area when the ball was attacked from their side. One midfielder could make the run while the others stayed behind the play. Bronico got beyond the Pumas midfield and kept following the attack.

He couldn’t plan that finish. He did put himself close enough to benefit from it.

Charlotte has needed more of that from its midfield. There have been matches when the striker enters the box and everyone else waits outside it. If the initial cross is cleared, the possession is basically over. Bronico gave Pumas another runner to account for.

The second goal was easier to understand. Five minutes after halftime, Schnegg found room on the left and crossed toward Goodwin. Goodwin got between the defenders and headed the ball past Navas.

The timing relieved me as much as the finish did.

Charlotte has played good first halves before and come back looking disconnected after halftime. Pumas only trailed by one and had enough attacking talent to make the missed opportunities hurt.

Goodwin scored before that kind of game could develop.

I asked Pumas coach Esteban Solari what he told his players during the break. He said he wanted them to forget the first half, correct the problems Charlotte caused on the counterattack and keep attacking. Solari thought Pumas improved afterward, although he admitted his players weren’t clinical.

Pumas did create more pressure. The score makes that easy to forget.

Tyler Miller finished with six saves. Pumas put six of its 13 shots on target, and Miller stopped everything. Charlotte created seven big chances to Pumas’ one, so I don’t think the result was misleading. I also don’t think this was 90 minutes of complete control.

Smith wasn’t satisfied with Charlotte’s use of the ball in the second half. He said the team gave possession away too easily. That happened several times after Charlotte defended well. Someone would win the ball, Charlotte would attempt the first pass forward and Pumas would have it back almost immediately.

Miller kept those mistakes from affecting the score.

Starting him over Kristijan Kahlina was one of the decisions I questioned before the game. Miller made Smith look right. He dealt with the shots cleanly and started the move that led to the third goal.

Charlotte had also done its homework defensively.

Pumas scored several times against Juárez by sending deep crosses toward the far post. I asked Smith about that at the end of his press conference because Charlotte looked ready for the same ball.

Smith said the coaches had focused on it during their preparation. Cleary handled those situations in the first half. Kessler took on more of that responsibility later.

It’s the kind of work that disappears when it’s done correctly. A defender follows the runner, heads the cross away and the game continues. If he switches off once, everyone notices.

Cleary had some difficult moments when Pumas attacked him directly, but his positioning on those crosses was good. Ream and Kessler were steady in the middle. Smith said they didn’t put a foot wrong in their first start together.

Djibril Diani helped them.

I didn’t leave the game thinking Diani had been the obvious player of the match. FotMob and Charlotte FC gave him that honor, so I went back through his numbers. He recorded eight defensive contributions and created two chances.

His job was easy to miss. When Bronico went forward, Diani covered the space. He helped stop Pedro Vite and Coco Carrasquilla from settling into the game. Pumas had possession, but its best midfielders never really controlled the night.

Diani can still frustrate me. Sometimes he takes an extra touch or plays a pass without enough pace. Against Pumas, Charlotte needed his size and defensive range. He gave the midfield some balance.

Then Smalls came on for Pep in the 71st minute.

Seven minutes later, Pumas sent players forward for a set piece. Miller collected the ball and threw it into the open field. Smalls saw the space and ran.

The defender couldn’t recover without fouling him inside the box. Smalls took the penalty himself and beat Navas.

He said afterward that Charlotte practices those situations. Once the first danger from a set piece is cleared, the players look for a quick attack before the opponent can recover.

“Maybe if I didn’t fall over, he could have got an assist,” Smalls joked about Miller’s throw.

I liked seeing that confidence from him. Smalls hasn’t played much this season. There have been times when his speed has gotten him into a promising position and his final decision has wasted it.

This time he forced the defender into a decision, won the penalty and wanted the ball afterward.

Nathan Richmond made his first-team debut a few minutes later. He called it a proud moment and said he had dreamed about playing for Charlotte since joining Crown Legacy.

He didn’t play long enough for me to judge the performance. I was glad Smith used the situation to give him the opportunity.

Aloko started and caused problems. Smalls changed the game after coming on. Richmond received his first minutes. That’s a productive night for the development side of the organization, especially because Charlotte still won comfortably.

I’m trying not to overreact to one game.

Charlotte’s larger roster questions haven’t disappeared. There will be nights when the team doesn’t create seven big chances. A ball won’t conveniently bounce off Bronico. Miller won’t save every shot. Charlotte will need someone who can change a game when the plan stops working.

Pep has done that repeatedly. The problem comes when he’s the only realistic option.

The Pumas match gave me a different version of Charlotte. Aloko carried the ball forward without looking for Pep first. Bronico entered the box. Goodwin finished a cross. Smalls created his own moment from the bench.

I’m not ready to say the depth is suddenly fixed. This was one match against a Pumas team that made plenty of mistakes.

It was still a good answer after Chicago.

Charlotte faces Atlas next. Atlas lost 3–1 to Columbus but had 56 percent of the possession, so Charlotte will probably spend parts of the game defending and waiting for the same transition opportunities it found against Pumas.

I want to see how this group responds if Atlas takes those spaces away. I want to see whether Charlotte can keep the ball better after halftime. Mostly, I want to know if the players around Pep can do this again.

The Pumas game made me reconsider the lineup. It made me feel better about the depth too.

I’m still waiting on the rest.

I had barely finished celebrating Pep Biel’s goal before Robert Lewandowski equalized. Ninety-three seconds. That was all Charlotte FC got to enjoy its lead Saturday night in Chicago.

Pep’s goal was one of Charlotte’s best attacking moves of the game. He exchanged passes with Idan Toklomati, ran behind Chicago’s defense and finished into the top corner. It was quick and confident, the kind of goal that makes you think the attack might finally be clicking.

Then Lewandowski reminded everyone why Chicago signed him.

His equalizer came in the 20th minute, and he scored the winner in the 68th. Two goals on his home MLS debut were enough to give Chicago a 2-1 win and end Charlotte’s four-match unbeaten run.

I have gone back and forth on whether it is fair to say Charlotte is missing a star. Pep is an MLS All-Star, and he has played like one this season. His goal in Chicago was his ninth in league play and brought him to 16 goal contributions. Tim Ream and Ashley Westwood were All-Stars, too. Liel Abada and Allan Saint-Maximin carry the designated player label.

So Charlotte isn’t completely starless. I don’t think that is the real problem.

The problem is that when Pep isn’t creating the chance, I don’t know who else Charlotte can trust to change a game. He has become responsible for so much of the attack that one quiet stretch from him can make the entire team feel harmless. Pep can be Charlotte’s best attacking player. He cannot be the entire attack.

Here is the number I can’t get past from Saturday: one shot on target.

Pep’s goal was it.

Charlotte and Chicago both attempted 14 shots, but the Fire put five on target. Charlotte had plenty of possession and moved the ball into decent areas. Still, I never really believed a second goal was coming.

Maybe that sounds harsh after a fairly even performance. Charlotte wasn’t played off the field, and there were parts of the first half I genuinely liked. Pep, Luca de la Torre and Nathan Byrne combined well on the right side. Pep moved inside, Byrne supplied width and de la Torre found space around them. Dean Smith called it de la Torre’s best performance for Charlotte, and I would agree.

The opening goal came from that chemistry. Pep said after the game that his connection with Byrne and de la Torre feels natural. He also talked about wanting to play quickly because defenders have less time to react. That is exactly what happened on the goal.

But the second half felt different. The passing became slower, the midfield pushed too far forward and Chicago started finding open space whenever it won the ball. Pep called it a loss of concentration rather than an energy problem.

“We just disconnected in the second half,” he said. “We have many minutes disconnected, so the other team can do whatever they want.”

That is a pretty honest description of what happened.

Smith called Chicago’s goals poor from Charlotte’s perspective. On the first, Andrew Morrison stepped forward and allowed the ball to travel over him. Lewandowski finished the move through Morrison’s legs, something Smith described as one of his “pet hates.”

The second goal came after Charlotte allowed the match to become “a bit basketballish,” as Smith put it. The midfield crashed forward, the defensive protection disappeared and Harry Toffolo didn’t stop the counterattack when he had the opportunity near midfield.

Chicago eventually completed more than 25 passes in the buildup. It was a good move, but Charlotte also made it far too easy for Lewandowski to arrive unmarked in the penalty area.

That is what bothered me most about his two goals. Lewandowski only needed Charlotte to lose concentration twice. When those chances arrived, he buried them.

Charlotte didn’t have anyone who could do the same at the other end.

Abada struggled to have much influence. Toklomati produced a smart assist, but I still wanted him to be more selfish around the penalty area. There were moments when he appeared to be searching for another pass instead of turning toward goal.

That doesn’t mean Toklomati played poorly. It means Charlotte needed someone besides Pep to force the issue, and nobody did.

The current roster situation makes that problem more noticeable. Kerwin Vargas has left the club, while immigration issues have delayed Allan Saint-Maximin’s arrival. Charlotte entered the match short on natural options out wide, forcing Pep to spend more time in those areas.

Pep called it a difficult challenge but added that roster decisions were not his business. Smith sounded frustrated about the delay as well, saying that “some clubs seem to get it done quite a little bit quicker.”

It might sound like paperwork happening far away from the field, but it mattered Saturday. Chicago’s newest star was playing and scoring twice. Charlotte’s newest designated player was still outside the country.

Smith also said Charlotte is “not an L.A.” that can simply bring in a collection of famous players. I understand what he means. Charlotte is not going to build its roster the same way Los Angeles or Miami does.

I don’t completely accept it as an excuse, though.

Charlotte doesn’t need five global superstars. It needs another attacking player who can decide this type of match. Saint-Maximin was signed to be that player, and his ability to run at defenders should add something this attack currently lacks. Until he arrives and proves it, the burden stays with Pep.

The result also made Charlotte’s road problems harder to ignore. The Crown is now 2-5-1 away from home and has lost four of its last five road matches. At some point, encouraging stretches of possession have to turn into points.

I’m tired of coming away from these games talking about how Charlotte played well enough to deserve more. A team with playoff expectations cannot keep making basic defensive mistakes and then point to possession or passing numbers as proof that everything is fine.

There is another game coming quickly. Charlotte opens Leagues Cup against Pumas on Tuesday, and Pep made it clear that the team doesn’t have much time to sit with this loss.

“It just takes me today,” he said. “Tomorrow is another day.”

That is the mentality the players need. As someone watching this team, though, I’m not ready to dismiss Saturday as one unfortunate result.

For 93 seconds, Pep gave Charlotte the lead and a glimpse of what this attack can look like. Lewandowski took it away almost immediately.

I don’t expect Charlotte to find its own Lewandowski. I do expect the club to find someone capable of sharing Pep’s burden and punishing opponents when the opportunity arrives.

Chicago had that player Saturday. Charlotte didn’t.

Charlotte FC spent 12 minutes making the game look easy and the next 80 proving how difficult it really was.

Pep Biel scored in the seventh minute. Ashley Westwood doubled the lead five minutes later. The Crown then watched Red Bull New York take over the ball, the territory and nearly every statistic normally used to explain who won a soccer match.

None of it changed the score.

Charlotte left “New York” (New Jersey) with a 2–0 victory Saturday night because its best attacking work came before New York had fought into the match, and Kristijan Kahlina refused to let everything that followed undo it.

The opening goal came from a moment Charlotte created. Liel Abada won the ball around midfield and carried it toward the left side of the penalty area. As New York’s defenders retreated toward their own goal, Abada pulled the ball back to Biel.

Biel had arrived late enough to escape the first wave of defenders and early enough to meet the pass in stride. He placed it into the bottom right corner before Ethan Horvath could get there.

It was Biel’s eighth goal of the season and the 20th of his MLS career, making him the newest member of the league’s 20-goal, 20-assist club. The milestone fits the player Charlotte has increasingly built its attack around. Biel only needs a pocket of space and a teammate capable of finding him.

Five minutes later, Charlotte found another opening. Kerwin Vargas received the ball outside the box and laid it into Westwood’s path. The veteran didn’t take a touch or wait for New York’s defense to close. He met it first time and sent a low strike beyond Horvath.

New York’s back line had barely recovered from the first goal. Charlotte gave it no time to recover from the second.

For those opening minutes, the Crown had the exact match it wanted. Abada and Vargas could run into space. Biel could drift behind Idan Toklomati and receive the ball between New York’s midfield and defense. Westwood and Luca de la Torre had enough time to look forward instead of immediately protecting their own penalty area.

The two-goal lead changed the shape of the night. New York pushed more players into advanced positions and kept Charlotte pinned inside its own half.

Without the ball, Charlotte’s 4-2-3-1 flattened into a 4-4-1-1. Abada and Vargas dropped alongside the midfield, while Toklomati was left to chase clearances and bother the center backs.

Charlotte stopped trying to own the game. It tried to shrink it.

The middle became crowded. New York was pressed toward the wings, where Charlotte could close down crosses with Henry Kessler and Morrison Agyemang in front of Kahlina. The Red Bulls still entered the penalty area, but many of their attacks needed another pass or another touch before the shot arrived.

The approach came with a cost. Charlotte couldn’t turn a defensive stop into possession. A clearance would land at the feet of another Red Bulls player, and the attack would begin again. Every clearance bought time. Few of them allowed Charlotte to breathe. By the half-hour, the match had become uncomfortable.

Kessler, making his MLS regular-season debut for the Crown, closed to stop one dangerous move. Kahlina made a diving save one minute later. In the 36th, he produced the moment that kept the match from changing completely, denying Jorge Ruvalcaba and then Cade Cowell in rapid succession.

New York tested him twice more before halftime.

I kept waiting for the goal that would pull the Red Bulls back into the match. One before the half would have changed the mood inside the stadium and forced Charlotte to reconsider how deep it was willing to defend. Kahlina never allowed it to happen.

New York finished with 24 shots, compared to Charlotte’s four. The Red Bulls had 65% possession, generated 2.38 expected goals and recorded 51 touches inside the Charlotte box. They missed all three of their big chances.

Those numbers show how much pressure Charlotte faced, but they don’t tell the entire story. Only six of New York’s attempts reached the target. Seven were blocked and 11 missed completely. Its 2.38 xG became only 1.06 expected goals on target once the placement of those shots was considered.

New York created enough to score. Its finishing repeatedly gave Kahlina a chance.

He accepted every one.

Charlotte’s goalkeeper finished with six saves and looked more certain as the match around him became less controlled. The Red Bulls sent more bodies forward, yet Kahlina never rushed when he came for the ball or set himself for a shot.

There was one frightening exception shortly after Emil Forsberg struck the post. Kahlina misplaced the ball directly to the Red Bulls captain, opening a chance that should have punished him. Forsberg could not convert, and Charlotte escaped the kind of mistake that often turns a comfortable lead into a frantic final half-hour.

That moment demonstrated the strange balance of the evening. Charlotte needed New York to keep missing.

The Crown made 23 clearances and blocked six shots. They won 14 of the match’s 21 aerial duels, an important stat against a team constantly returning the ball toward the penalty area. Kessler and Morrison held their ground in the center while Nathan Byrne and Harry Toffolo spent their night defending closer to their own goal than Charlotte would have planned.

Still, the clean sheet belonged most of all to the goalkeeper behind them.

Charlotte somewhat threatened to end the tension after halftime. Toklomati had opportunities in consecutive minutes, finally making Horvath do something other than get the ball from his net. A third goal would have killed whatever hope remained inside the stadium.

It never arrived, so Charlotte went back to defending. New York circulated the ball and tried again.

Forsberg hit the woodwork. Kahlina kept saving. The Red Bulls’ frustration followed them into stoppage time, when Adri Mehmeti received his second yellow card.

The red card had no effect on the result. It felt more like the final word of a team that had spent most of the night close to scoring and finished no closer on the scoreboard than it had been after Westwood’s goal.

Charlotte shouldn’t treat this as a performance it can replicate every week. Teams that concede 24 shots will eventually pay for it, regardless of how well their goalkeeper is playing. The inability to keep the ball after defensive recoveries turned the match into a fight far earlier than Dean Smith would have wanted.

But road victories never arrive in perfect condition.

Charlotte created the two best attacking moments of the match and converted both. When the game moved away from its initial plan, the Crown found another way through it. The defending became deeper than intended and the margin felt fragile for most of the night, but the players inside the box continued putting themselves between the ball and the goal.

Kahlina handled the rest.

Coach Smith’s 100th match in charge became Charlotte’s first victory at Sports Illustrated Stadium. Biel reached another club milestone, Westwood scored a captain’s goal and the Crown moved to 25 points after one of its most unusual wins of the season.

At the final whistle, the scoreboard still showed the same two goals Charlotte had scored before the 13th minute.

Kahlina spent the rest of the night making sure they were enough.

This World Cup has spent the last month pulling in two different directions.

Spain have played as though every game could be organized, controlled and slowly bent to their will. Argentina have spent the knockout rounds proving that some matches cannot be controlled at all, only survived.

That is how they arrived in the final.

Spain have conceded only one goal in seven matches. Argentina have scored a tournament-high 19, although they have also conceded seven on their way back to the stage they conquered four years ago. One has looked like the competition’s most complete team. The other has repeatedly looked vulnerable before reminding everyone why it is still the world champion.

After 103 matches, there is nobody left except each other.

Throughout the past month, I kept waiting for someone to force Spain into a different game.

Portugal defended deep enough to make the Round of 16 uncomfortable. Belgium produced periods of pressure in the quarterfinals. France arrived in the semifinal with Kylian Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé and Michael Olise capable of turning one turnover into an opportunity within seconds.

None of them changed the kind of match Spain wanted to play. Spain kept changing them instead.

That has been the major characteristic of Luis de la Fuente’s team. Spain uses the ball to decide where the game is played, how quickly it moves and how little opponents are allowed to attack an unsettled defense.

Rodri has been at the center of it all. He has completed a World Cup-record 648 passes. His positioning stops danger before it becomes obvious enough for anyone else to notice.

Around him, everything fits. Fabián Ruiz finds pockets that defenders struggle to track. Lamine Yamal stretches back lines until openings appear between them. Spain can commit their fullbacks forward without making the entire structure feel vulnerable.

The result is a team that attacks with numbers but barely seems to be taking a risk.

Spain’s defensive record shows how difficult they have been to threaten. They have conceded only once in seven matches, and their tournament-leading 343 forced turnovers help explain why opponents haven’t been able to attack an unsettled defense. Even France’s transition-heavy attack couldn’t force the semifinal into the open, end-to-end contest it needed.

What has impressed me most is something that doesn’t appear in those numbers.

Spain never look impatient.

Knockout football has a way of convincing teams they need to force the next attack. A blocked shot becomes a rushed pass. One frustrating moment becomes five minutes of chasing a goal that isn’t there yet.

Spain avoids falling into that trap. Portugal frustrated them. Belgium made them wait. Austria stayed organized for stretches of their Round of 32 meeting. Spain never abandoned the principles that brought them there.

They trusted that the match would eventually return to the version they wanted. It almost always did.

Argentina have experienced the tournament from the opposite perspective.

Watching the defending champions has felt like watching a team repeatedly solve whatever problem appears in front of it.

Cape Verde pushed Argentina to the edge in the Round of 32. Egypt took a two-goal lead in the next round before Lionel Scaloni’s side produced one of the tournament’s best comebacks. England then led the semifinal until the 85th minute, only for Enzo Fernández to equalize before Lautaro Martínez completed the comeback in stoppage time. Lionel Messi created both goals, first finding Fernández and then delivering for Martínez’s winning header.

None of those victories looked the same. That may be exactly why Argentina are back in another World Cup final.

There is an adaptability to Scaloni’s team that numbers cannot fully explain. Some nights Messi slows the situation until he sees a pass nobody else does. Other nights Julián Álvarez makes the shot, Fernández takes control of midfield or Martínez changes the game after coming from the bench.

It has never been one tactical pattern. It has been their refusal to treat a bad moment (or even a two-goal deficit) as the final version of the match.

Argentina no longer need to dominate a match to believe they will win it. Falling behind has not broken them. Losing control has not scared them. The moments that should have created panic have instead brought out some of their best football.

That is the center of the final.

The buildup will understandably be reduced to two faces. Messi is 39 and potentially one victory away from completing the greatest final chapter international football has seen. Yamal is 19 and already playing with the confidence of someone who expects the game to change whenever the ball reaches him. One represents the era Argentina is trying to extend. The other looks like the beginning of whatever Spain will become next.

Both deserve the attention.

However, the final will not be decided by which star produces the better highlight.

Argentina must make Spain uncomfortable in midfield. Rodrigo De Paul and Enzo cannot allow Rodri to receive the ball, turn and choose the direction of the next attack without pressure.

That is difficult enough under normal circumstances. It becomes even harder against a team that has spent the tournament waiting for opponents to become impatient.

Argentina will want moments of chaos. They have the players to turn one loose ball or broken shape into a chance before Spain can recover. Messi does not need repeated opportunities. Álvarez does not need much room to run, and Martínez has shown that he can enter late and immediately make an impact.

Spain will try to prevent those moments from existing.

That is more interesting to me than possession against counterattacks or youth against experience. This is a final between one team that has spent a month reducing the number of things that can go wrong and another that has learned it can survive when almost everything does.

There’s history here too.

Argentina can become the first men’s team since Brazil in 1962 to defend their World Cup championship. It would be the country’s fourth title and would elevate Scaloni’s team from a great champion to one of the most accomplished international sides of the modern era.

Spain are seeking their second World Cup after winning in 2010. Victory would complete a European Championship/World Cup double and confirm that this generation belongs alongside the team that dominated international football from 2008 through 2012.

Neither side reached this point by accident, but they have offered completely different answers to the question every tournament asks: How do you win when one mistake could send you home?

Spain’s answer has been to limit the opportunities for that mistake to happen. Argentina has been to believe the mistake does not have to be the end.

I have thought for most of this tournament that Spain were the best team in it. Argentina has given me more reasons to question that conclusion with every comeback, but I keep returning to the same thought.

Who has actually made Spain play a different game?

Portugal came closest. Belgium had moments. France had the attacking talent to do it and never managed to create the kind of game it needed. Each opponent eventually found itself playing at Spain’s tempo, in Spain’s spaces and under Spain’s terms.

Argentina will create chances. Messi will have his say, and the defending champions have earned far too much respect for anyone to expect an easy afternoon. They have spent this tournament finding a way out every time the path appeared closed.

This time, I think they have finally reached the team that will not leave enough room for another escape.

Prediction: Spain 2–1 Argentina.

Spain have spent this World Cup taking possibilities away. Argentina survived by finding one more whenever they needed it.

I think Spain will finally leave them without one.

Spain did not need chaos, a late winner or one of the individual moments France seemed capable of producing at any second. It took control early and never gave the tournament’s most dangerous attack the type of match it wanted.

Mikel Oyarzabal converted a penalty in the 22nd minute after Lamine Yamal drew a foul from Lucas Digne. Pedro Porro doubled the lead in the second half after combining with Dani Olmo, and Spain spent the rest of the night denying France the openings it had found throughout the tournament.

France entered the semifinal with the World Cup’s most dangerous attack, but Spain didn’t allow the match to open. La Roja protected the areas where it lost possession, limited opportunities Kylian Mbappé had spent the tournament punishing and forced France to create against a settled defense. Mbappé attempted three shots without putting one on target, while Ousmane Dembélé and Michael Olise never found enough room to change the game.

Spain won 2–0, recorded its sixth shutout in seven matches and advanced to its first World Cup final since lifting the trophy in 2010.

Now it waits for England or Argentina.

Diego Maradona’s Hand of God. David Beckham’s red card. Penalty shootouts and generations of supporters who can recall exactly where they were when these countries last met at a World Cup.

England and Argentina have never met in a World Cup semifinal or final, adding a new stage to a rivalry already filled with matches neither country has forgotten.

Argentina has spent much of this tournament living close to the edge. Lionel Scaloni’s team needed extra time to survive Cabo Verde, came back from two goals down against Egypt and required another extra-time push to defeat Switzerland 3–1 in the quarterfinal. Julián Álvarez broke the deadlock in the 112th minute before Lautaro Martínez finished the match.

England’s route hasn’t been any calmer either.

Thomas Tuchel’s team beat Croatia 4–2, drew with Ghana and defeated Panama to win its group. England then survived DR Congo, beat Mexico 3–2 and needed extra time against Norway. Jude Bellingham scored twice in the quarterfinal, including the goal that sent England into its third World Cup semifinal since 1990.

Neither team has reached this stage through dominant performances. Argentina has repeatedly needed extra time, while England has allowed knockout matches to become far more uncomfortable than its talent suggested they should be.

Both have survived anyway, and at this stage of the tournament, that ability may matter as much as playing well for 90 minutes.

A Rivalry With a Final Waiting on the Other Side

Thomas Tuchel has made three changes from the team that started against Norway.

Reece James replaces Ezri Konsa at right back, Djed Spence comes in for Nico O’Reilly on the left and Morgan Rogers starts ahead of Noni Madueke on the right wing. Jarell Quansah is suspended, while Jordan Henderson remains unavailable with a wrist injury. Declan Rice has recovered from illness, and James is fit after his recent hamstring issue.

The changes make England more adventurous. James gives England the option of stepping another player into midfield during buildup. He can move alongside Rice and Elliot Anderson and allow Bellingham to stay closer to Harry Kane.

The risk comes when possession changes hands. Lionel Messi naturally drifts toward that side of the field. An inverted James could find himself recovering toward his own goal rather than defending from a set position, especially when Argentina wins the ball before England’s midfield has time to reorganize.

Spence brings a different quality on the opposite side. His speed should help England defend open space, but he is making his first start since the Round of 16 and now has to manage one of Argentina’s most interesting tactical changes.

Scaloni has made one surprise move of his own. Giuliano Simeone replaces Rodrigo De Paul in Argentina’s only change from the quarterfinal. The decision removes one of Scaloni’s most trusted midfielders and replaces him with a more natural wide player.

Simeone can hold the right side or run beyond England’s defense, while Alexis Mac Allister moves narrower from the left to join Enzo Fernández and Leandro Paredes. Nicolás Tagliafico can then provide width on the opposite side.

Messi has the freedom to move toward whichever area England leaves most vulnerable. That structure could give Argentina several players in central areas without completely abandoning the width needed to stretch England’s defense. It also creates an big test for Spence, who will have to manage Simeone’s running and Messi drifting toward the same side.

Messi rarely stays in a fixed position. He begins near Álvarez, then moves toward whichever area England has temporarily left open.

Tuchel admitted he considered using a dedicated marker on Messi before deciding England would need a collective answer.

Rice and Anderson will carry that responsibility. Rice is the midfielder most capable of tracking Messi physically, but England cannot allow that to pull him away from every other problem Argentina creates. Fernández and Mac Allister are too dangerous to leave alone, and Álvarez will immediately attack behind England’s midfield whenever Messi moves toward the ball.

England cannot allow both midfielders to step toward Messi. One must engage him while the other protects the pass that follows.

At the other end, Bellingham can create a different problem for Argentina’s midfield.

Paredes is Argentina’s deepest midfielder, and Bellingham’s movement will repeatedly test his positioning. Bellingham will begin behind Kane, but he rarely stays there. When Kane drops away from Cristian Romero and Lisandro Martínez, Bellingham can attack the opening he leaves behind.

Rogers may be important to making those movements matter. His selection is one of Tuchel’s more surprising decisions. He has started only once during this World Cup, but he gives England a stronger ball carrier on the right. Argentina will try to trap possession near the touchline, where the sideline becomes another defender and Romero can step aggressively toward the ball.

Argentina wants to make England’s midfield choose between Messi and the players moving around him. England wants to move Argentina’s deepest defenders until Bellingham or Kane finds an opening. Neither team is likely to control those matchups for 90 minutes.

The history surrounding this match will become part of the conversation, but the players are not carrying memories of Maradona or Beckham onto the field. They are carrying their own.

England lost a World Cup semifinal in 2018, the Euros final in 2021 and another European final in 2024. This group has spent years getting close enough to believe, only to leave another tournament without the trophy.

Argentina’s pressure comes from what this group has already accomplished.

It is defending the World Cup with a 39-year-old captain who has already scored eight times during this tournament. Another victory would take Messi back to the final four years after he finally lifted the trophy that had defined so much of his career.

England is trying to end 60 years of waiting. Argentina is trying to extend one of the greatest periods in its national team’s history.

Player to Watch: Jude Bellingham

The questions surrounding him before the World Cup now feel distant. Bellingham has scored six goals during the tournament, including four across England’s past two knockout matches. His two goals against Mexico helped England survive the Round of 16. He scored twice again against Norway, including the extra-time winner that brought England to Atlanta.

His importance goes beyond the goals.

Bellingham will begin behind Kane, but Argentina cannot defend him with one defender. He can drop into midfield to help England play through pressure, move toward the left to combine with Anthony Gordon or arrive in the penalty area as Kane pulls a center back away.

Those movements will test Paredes and Argentina’s center backs throughout the match.

Argentina will also test his patience. It will make the game physical, contest second balls and interrupt transitions whenever England begins to build momentum. Bellingham plays with an edge that makes him capable of thriving in that environment, but England needs his intensity directed toward the game.

At 23, he is already playing in his fourth major tournament. He has experienced the penalties, the criticism and the feeling of leaving competitions before England believed it should. Now he has a chance to help take the country back to a World Cup final for the first time in 60 years.

Prediction

England has enough athleticism and attacking depth to make Argentina uncomfortable, especially as the match stretches. Bellingham’s movement should create problems, and Tuchel has more ways to change the attack from the bench.

I still trust Argentina when the original plan stops working.

Many of its most important players have already survived a World Cup final together. They know how to slow a match, get through a difficult stretch and find another way forward. Messi still gives them a player who can change everything in a few seconds.

England will have chances. I think Argentina takes one more.

Argentina 2–1 England after extra time.

Spain is already waiting in New Jersey.

England has spent years getting close. Argentina is trying to do this one more time.

By tonight, one of them will be on its way.

We have reached the point of the World Cup when every match feels almost too big to process.

France and Spain arrived as two of the tournament favorites. A month later, neither has trailed for a single second. They have played 12 matches between them, allowed only three goals and turned what should be the most unpredictable World Cup in history into a march toward one another.

France’s journey has been the strongest of the two. Les Bleus scored eight goals across wins over Senegal, Iraq and Norway before dismantling Sweden 3–0 in the Round of 32. The knockout rounds needed more patience, but the results have remained the same: a 1–0 win over Paraguay followed by a controlled 2–0 victory over Morocco. France has won all six matches in regulation and outscored its opponents 16–2.

Spain’s path has looked different. A scoreless draw against Cabo Verde on opening day raised a few eyebrows, but La Roja responded by beating Saudi Arabia and Uruguay to win its group. Austria was dismantled 3–0 before Spain survived two increasingly tense knockout matches. Mikel Merino scored in stoppage time to eliminate Portugal, then came off the bench again and struck in the 88th minute against Belgium.

Now they meet in Arlington.

I have spent the past month watching this World Cup from airport gates, hotel rooms, restaurants, stadium seats and whatever television I could find. Today, I get to walk into AT&T Stadium for a World Cup semifinal between France and Spain.

It still doesn’t feel real.

I grew up watching matches like this from thousands of miles away, imagining what the tension inside the stadium must feel like. Now I will be there when Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, Rodri, Ousmane Dembélé and the rest of these teams walk onto the field with a World Cup final waiting on the other side.

There are not many sporting events larger than this one.

One Match From the Final

This is the rare match that can be described as a meeting between the tournament’s best attack and best defense without exaggerating either side.

France’s front line has overwhelmed everyone it has faced. Mbappé enters the semifinal tied for the Golden Boot lead with eight goals, while Dembélé has scored five and Michael Olise leads the tournament with five assists. Didier Deschamps will complete the attack with Bradley Barcola, then turn toward a bench filled with players capable of changing the match.

Spain has conceded once.

Unai Simón went a World Cup-record 650 minutes without allowing a goal before Charles De Ketelaere headed Belgium’s equalizer in the quarterfinal. Even that goal required Belgium to escape Spain’s initial pressure, move quickly through midfield and attack before La Roja could regain its shape.

France has the exact collection of players needed to threaten Spain in those moments. That is where this match becomes fascinating.

Spain uses possession as a form of defense. Rodri and Fabián Ruiz circulate the ball until an opponent’s shape begins to stretch, while Dani Olmo drifts between the midfield and defensive lines. Pedro Porro and Marc Cucurella provide width, allowing Yamal and Álex Baena to move into more dangerous areas rather than remaining attached to the touchline.

Keeping the ball also prevents Mbappé, Dembélé and Olise from running toward goal.

Spain wants France’s forwards watching the ball and defending for long stretches. Sustaining that control against this France team is a different challenge. Les Bleus have enough athleticism in midfield and defense to survive without the ball, and they need only one poor Spanish pass to turn possession into panic.

France doesn’t want to spend the afternoon trapped inside its own half. Deschamps has said his team will contest control rather than simply sit deep and wait for counterattacks. That decision could make his midfield selection one of the most important calls of the match.

Aurélien Tchouaméni has returned to training after missing the victories over Paraguay and Morocco with a hamstring problem. Deschamps said he is available, although not completely recovered. Manu Koné and Adrien Rabiot performed well together against Morocco, giving France physicality and the ability to cover ground behind an aggressive attack. Warren Zaïre-Emery offers another option.

Starting Tchouaméni gives France a natural holding midfielder who can protect the center backs and help play through Spain’s press. Subbing on Koné alongside Rabiot would preserve the energy and mobility that carried Les Bleus through the quarterfinal. Neither choice offers much room for error against a Spanish midfield built to punish players who arrive half a second late.

Mbappé’s fitness created another concern after he left the Morocco match with an ankle issue and completed only part of France’s final training session. Deschamps has insisted his captain is fine and will start. Koné also left the quarterfinal with a minor knee problem but participated in France’s preparations.

Spain enters with almost everyone available. Nico Williams and Yeremy Pino have recovered from earlier injuries, although both will begin on the bench. Victor Muñoz is the only reported doubt.

Merino’s late goals against Portugal and Belgium have not necessarily earned him a starting place because his greatest value may come after the match begins to loosen.

His role has become one of Spain’s most reliable weapons. Defenders spend more than an hour chasing Yamal, Olmo and Mikel Oyarzabal before Merino arrives with fresh legs, physical strength and a midfielder’s sense of timing inside the penalty area. His winners have not felt accidental. Spain has repeatedly created the conditions for him to attack tired defenders late.

The widest areas may decide how long Spain remains comfortable. Yamal will face Barcelona teammate Jules Koundé on Spain’s right, while Mbappé will attack the space around Porro on the opposite side. Porro’s willingness to advance helps Spain create overloads, but every step forward leaves another yard for Mbappé to attack after a turnover.

France also has to decide how much defensive responsibility it can demand from its forwards. Spain will attempt to move the ball from side to side until Dembélé, Doué or Mbappé stops tracking a runner. Once that happens, Rodri can change the point of attack and create an overload near the touchline. France’s attacking freedom comes with a cost, especially against a team patient enough to keep searching for the same weakness.

There is history here, too.

Spain eliminated France from Euro 2024 and defeated Les Bleus again in the 2025 Nations League semifinals. France’s players have discussed those defeats, even as Deschamps has tried to separate them from this match. The circumstances are different, but the memory does not disappear simply because a coach says it should.

France is also chasing something larger. A victory would send Les Bleus to a third consecutive World Cup final, a feat previously accomplished only by Brazil and Germany. Spain has not returned to this stage since winning the tournament in 2010. The countries have met only once at a World Cup, when France won 3–1 in the 2006 Round of 16.

On Bastille Day, inside a stadium holding more than 80,000 people, another chapter will be written.

Player to Watch: Kylian Mbappé

Mbappé enters this semifinal tied for the Golden Boot lead with eight goals, carrying an ankle concern and standing 90 minutes away from reaching his third World Cup final before turning 28.

Spain may control the ball. Rodri and Pedri may dictate the rhythm. Yamal may produce the moment everyone remembers.

But no player on the field can change the entire feeling of the match as quickly as Mbappé.

His matchup with Porro could become the area France targets most aggressively. Spain’s right back is important to the way La Roja builds attacks, often pushing forward to create width while Yamal moves into more dangerous positions. Every time Porro advances, however, France will look at the space behind him.

Mbappé does not need much of it.

One loose pass in midfield can become a sprint toward goal within seconds. Spain has been almost impossible to break down during this tournament because opponents rarely reach its defensive line before the rest of the team recovers. Mbappé changes that. There may not be time to recover.

His fitness adds another layer to the match. Mbappé left the quarterfinal against Morocco with an ankle problem and did not complete all of France’s final training session, although Deschamps has said his captain is ready to play.

France needs him to be more than available.

This is the type of stage that has defined Mbappé’s career. He scored in the 2018 World Cup final, produced a hat trick in the 2022 final and has spent this tournament moving closer to records that once seemed untouchable.

Now Spain stands between him and another one.

I will be watching how often France can release him before Spain resets, how willing Porro is to continue pushing forward and whether Mbappé looks completely free when he opens into a sprint.

In a match filled with some of the best players in the world, he remains the one I would least want running toward my goal.

Prediction:

France’s attack is unlike anything Spain has faced during this tournament.

Belgium showed that Spain can be unsettled when an opponent escapes the press and reaches its back line quickly. France can produce those moments through several different players, and Mbappé has spent this World Cup punishing even the smallest defensive mistake.

Spain will control long portions of the match. Rodri and Fábian should give La Roja stretches when France struggles to recover the ball, and Yamal will create problems on the right. I still trust France’s ability to turn one recovery into a chance before Spain can reset.

This feels like a match that will be decided late, possibly after another appearance from Merino changes Spain’s shape. France has more ways to score, though, and its knockout-round defense has been nearly as impressive as the forwards receiving most of the attention.

France 2–1 Spain after extra time.

Whatever happens, I will be there.

A World Cup semifinal. France against Spain. Mbappé against Yamal. One match away from the final.

For years, this was the type of night I could only imagine. Today, I get to experience it.

Morocco eventually ran into a team that never allowed the match to become the kind of fight they wanted.

France won 2–0 yesterday, and unlike several other knockout matches we’ve watched so far, the result felt fair. Morocco defended well enough to keep the game scoreless through the opening half, but they created nothing in attack and never forced France to defend dangerous situations.

Kylian Mbappé had a penalty saved before scoring in the 60th minute. Ousmane Dembélé doubled the lead six minutes later after Morocco failed to clear another attack inside the box. France never needed to rush. They controlled possession, limited Morocco’s transitions and trusted their quality.

Morocco’s first shot on target did not come until the 83rd minute, which probably tells the story better than anything else.

Their tournament should still be remembered as another impressive run. Morocco eliminated the Netherlands, comfortably beat Canada and reached another World Cup quarterfinal after becoming the first African nation to reach the semifinals four years ago. Missing Ismael Saibari definitely hurt, but Morocco have reached the point where injuries and moral victories are no longer excuses.

Morocco genuinely believed they could beat France. France were simply better.

Mbappé now leads the tournament with eight goals, Dembélé continues to punish defenses from the right wing and Didier Deschamps’ side have still not conceded in the knockout rounds. France are back in the semifinals for a third consecutive World Cup and now wait for the winner of today’s quarterfinal.

Spain arrive without conceding a goal at this World Cup.

Belgium arrive after scoring 12 across their last three matches.

Can Belgium Finally Disrupt Spain?

Spain have played five matches at this World Cup without conceding a goal.

Belgium have become the second most dangerous attacking team left in the tournament.

That makes this one of the most fascinating matchups we’ve had so far.

Spain defend by keeping the ball. Rodri gives them control at the base of midfield, Fabián Ruiz gives Spain another midfielder willing to play forward, and their counterpress usually wins the ball back before opponents can properly think.

Portugal probably came closer than anyone else to showing how Spain can be frustrated. They stayed compact, matched Spain technically through midfield and forced the Round of 16 match into stoppage time before Mikel Merino came off the bench to score the winner. Even then, Spain never looked uncomfortable. That’s become one of their biggest strengths under Luis de la Fuente.

Belgium won’t try to win the same way Portugal did. Trying to out-possess Spain is usually how you lose to them.

Belgium are at their best when matches become stretched and chaotic. That’s exactly how they recovered from 2–0 down against Senegal before winning 3–2 in extra time, and it’s how they dismantled the United States 4–1 in the Round of 16. They need moments where Spain lose their shape.

Kevin De Bruyne returns to the starting lineup after missing Belgium’s previous two knockout matches, giving Rudi Garcia his most important creator back. Jérémy Doku also returns, while Charles De Ketelaere leads the attack after scoring twice against the United States.

It’s what makes Belgium different from everyone Spain have faced so far. Doku creates the advantage. De Bruyne exploits it. De Ketelaere finds the gaps left behind.

Spain’s job is making sure none of those players receive the ball while facing forward.

The United States struggled with that. The American midfield stepped toward the ball without enough protection behind it, leaving Belgium free to attack the next line. Spain are far better equipped to close those gaps.

Belgium know patient buildup probably won’t be enough. They have to make Spain turn and run. Belgium are also playing without a traditional striker from the start. De Ketelaere will move away from the center backs, De Bruyne will look for the space behind Rodri and Trossard will drift inside from the right. That movement may be more useful against Spain than simply asking Lukaku to battle Laporte and Cubarsí for 90 minutes.

Doku gives them the best chance of doing exactly that. Every time he isolates a defender, Spain has to react.

Belgium have become much more comfortable changing the way. Earlier in the tournament they tried to control matches with the ball. Lately they’ve been perfectly comfortable defending deeper, waiting for mistakes and attacking quickly once space opens up. Against Spain, that’s probably the smarter approach.

The problem is Belgium are missing the midfielder they’d want most for this game.

Amadou Onana suffered a torn ACL against the United States and will miss the remainder of the tournament. It removes Belgium’s best ball-winner and their most athletic midfielder. Belgium start Timothy Castagne, Nathan Ngoy, Brandon Mechele and Maxim De Cuyper across the back, a group that will spend the whole game defending Spain’s movement around the penalty area.

Nicolas Raskin and Youri Tielemans now have to handle the space Onana normally protects. Tielemans gives Belgium passing quality, while Raskin brings more energy and aggression, but neither offers the same combination of size, range and ball-winning. That could become the biggest matchup of the afternoon. If Rodri and Fabián Ruiz consistently receive the ball under little pressure, Spain will spend most of the afternoon attacking.

Spain have already shown they don’t need Nico Williams to play their game. Spain start Álex Baena on the left, with Dani Olmo playing centrally behind Mikel Oyarzabal. Baena may not attack defenders the same way Nico Williams does, but his movement gives Spain another player who can drift inside and combine through midfield. With Yeremy Pino still unavailable, Spain have spread the creativity across several players instead of relying on one winger.

That puts even more attention on Lamine Yamal. He has only scored once, but his influence goes beyond goals. Every opponent has placed extra defenders toward him, opening space elsewhere. Maxim De Cuyper gets the direct matchup with Yamal, but he will need support. Every extra defender Belgium send toward that side creates another passing lane for Olmo, Oyarzabal or Fabián Ruiz.

Spain’s depth may end up deciding this match. Merino already came off the bench to eliminate Portugal, and de la Fuente continues finding important goals from his substitutes. Belgium have been just as dangerous in that department. Their substitutes have scored five goals at this World Cup, the most of any nation, and Romelu Lukaku has embraced a bench role that allows him to attack tired defenses late.

Belgium always seem one transition away from changing a match.

Thibaut Courtois could also end up being Belgium’s most important player.

Spain are almost guaranteed to create moments where Belgium struggle to leave their own half. Courtois has the ability to keep those moments from turning into goals long enough for Belgium’s attack to find another opportunity.

History also leans Spain’s way. They are unbeaten in 11 meetings with Belgium dating back to 1980, winning nine of them, and extended their overall unbeaten run to 15 matches after eliminating Portugal.

Those results won’t decide today’s match.

They do reinforce one thing, though. Spain know exactly who they are, and no team left in this tournament has forced them away from that identity.

Player to Watch: Kevin De Bruyne

Belgium become a completely different team when De Bruyne plays.

Doku may be their best dribbler and De Ketelaere has become one of the tournament’s breakout performers, but De Bruyne remains the player most capable of changing a match with one pass.

Very few teams have forced Rodri to defend behind him at this World Cup. Belgium need De Bruyne to be the first.

If he can pull Spain’s midfield out of position and find runners before Spain reorganize, Belgium have a genuine chance of ending the longest defensive streak left in the tournament.

Prediction: Spain 2–1 Belgium

I think Belgium finally become the first team to score against Spain at this World Cup.

De Bruyne gives them a creator unlike anyone Spain have faced in the knockout rounds, Doku only needs one successful dribble to change a game and Lukaku remains one of the tournament’s best options off the bench.

I still trust Spain more. They’ve been the most complete team in the tournament from the opening match through the quarterfinals. Rodri and Fabián Ruiz will gradually take control of midfield, Yamal will keep Belgium’s left side busy and Spain have already shown they don’t need to dominate the scoreboard early to win.

Belgium will make this uncomfortable. Spain eventually find the moment they’ve found all tournament.

A France-Spain semifinal feels like the matchup this World Cup has been building toward.

Tuesday was brutal in two completely different ways.

Argentina looked gone for most of the afternoon. Egypt held a 2–0 lead, Lionel Messi had missed a penalty, and for a while it felt like the defending champions were about to follow Brazil, Germany and Portugal out of the tournament. Then Argentina did what Argentina have done for most of the Messi era: they found just enough belief, just enough pressure and just enough chaos to drag themselves back into the match. Cristian Romero started the comeback, Messi equalized, and Enzo Fernández won it in stoppage time to turn a disaster into another quarterfinal.

Egypt should still leave with pride, even if that will not make the ending easier to accept.

They gave Argentina real problems, forced the world champions into one of the wildest comebacks of the tournament and made Mohamed Salah’s World Cup run feel like something more meaningful than just a nice story. They also left with real frustration. Mostafa Ziko had a goal ruled out for a foul in the buildup, Egypt wanted a penalty after Julián Álvarez’s challenge on Salah, and Enzo Fernández scored the winner shortly after that sequence.

FIFA defended the decisions. Egypt clearly did not see it that way. This one will hurt for a while. They made Argentina suffer.

Then Colombia played Switzerland, and I still haven’t fully recovered.

The match itself was the kind of game that slowly ruins your afternoon. Colombia had chances. Gustavo Puerta hit one with real violence. Jhon Lucumí put a header off the bar. The crowd in Vancouver sounded like a Colombia home match, and for a long time it felt like one moment would finally break Switzerland’s structure. It never came.

Then came penalties, because the sport always needs one more way to make Colombia fans miserable. Cucho Hernández had his penalty saved, Davinson Sánchez hit the bar, and Ruben Vargas buried the decisive kick for Switzerland. Colombia lost 4–3 in the shootout after 120 scoreless minutes.

I hadn’t done predictions for Colombia games during this tournament, and yesterday was the reason. You can analyze the midfield, the wide areas, the absences and the matchups all you want. Once Colombia reach penalties, the analysis turns into pacing around the room and negotiating with every higher power you can think of.

Switzerland move on to face Argentina. Colombia go home with a tournament that was good, but not as long as it should have been. That is going to annoy me for a while.

Now Day 28 gives us a good one. France against Morocco. A quarterfinal in Foxborough. A rematch of the 2022 semifinal. One team that still looks like the safest bet in the field, and one team that has spent two World Cups making people stop treating them like a surprise.

Morocco wanted another chance at France. They have it now.

Morocco Get Their Rematch

This is not 2022 again, even if it is impossible to separate the matchup from that night.

France beat Morocco in the semifinal four years ago, but Morocco are not entering this match as a cinderella underdog anymore. They eliminated the Netherlands on penalties, handled Canada 3–0 and reached another World Cup quarterfinal with a team that looks comfortable in uncomfortable matches.

France are the kind of opponent that punishes teams for needing everything to go perfectly. Morocco do not need perfect. They need discipline, patience and a few moments where their right side can turn defense into pressure.

The Ismael Saibari injury is the biggest problem for Morocco. He has been one of their best players in this tournament, not just because of the goals, but because of how much he gives them between lines. Losing him takes away one of Morocco’s cleanest connectors and puts more responsibility on Brahim Díaz, Bilal El Khannouss and the wide players to create the same kind of threat.

That makes Achraf Hakimi even more important.

Hakimi is already one of Morocco’s main routes into games, but without Saibari, his timing on the right side becomes even more valuable. France will know the ball is coming there. That does not mean stopping it is simple. Hakimi can overlap, underlap, switch the angle of attack and give Morocco a way to move up the field without needing long spells of possession.

France’s left side has to manage that carefully. Lucas Digne gives Didier Deschamps a more traditional fullback profile, but whoever plays ahead of him has to help enough without allowing Morocco to pull France’s midfield too far toward the touchline. Morocco are dangerous when Hakimi creates the first problem and someone else attacks the space it opens.

France’s advantage is obvious. They have Kylian Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise, Désiré Doué and enough attacking options that every defensive adjustment creates another issue somewhere else. Paraguay made France work in the Round of 16, slowed the game down and kept it tight, but Mbappé still solved it from the penalty spot. That has been France’s tournament in one sentence. They just need one action that feels unfair.

The midfield battle is where Morocco can make this interesting. Azzedine Ounahi has to give Morocco calm in possession, Sofyan Amrabat has to protect the back line without getting dragged too deep, and El Khannouss has to help replace some of what Saibari normally provides. Morocco cannot spend the whole match clearing the ball and waiting for one counter. France are too good at punishing that style.

At the same time, Morocco should not turn this into a possession contest just to prove a point. Their best version is balanced: compact without being passive, brave enough to play through pressure, and direct enough to punish France when the fullbacks step high.

That is where Brahim Díaz becomes so important. Morocco are not using a traditional striker, which means Díaz has to connect everything. He has to give Morocco a way out when they break pressure, combine quickly with Hakimi and El Khannouss, and make France’s center backs uncomfortable by drifting into spaces instead of simply occupying them.

France may also have to think about game management more than usual. The quarterfinal is the last match before yellow cards are wiped, and players such as Michael Olise are one booking away from missing a potential semifinal. That does not mean France will play scared, but it is another little tournament detail in a match that already has enough tension.

I keep coming back to one question: can Morocco make France defend the match rather than simply manage it?

Paraguay made France uncomfortable, but not dangerous enough. Morocco have more ways to hurt France than Paraguay did, especially through Hakimi, Brahim and El Khannouss. They also have the emotional edge of knowing exactly what this matchup means. France ended their 2022 run. Morocco do not need anyone to explain the stakes.

The problem is that France are still France.

That sounds lazy, but it is not. It means they can be average for most of the game and still win. It means Mbappé can change a match before it has fully developed. It means Dembélé can spend 70 minutes frustrating a fullback and then create the one chance that decides everything.

Morocco can absolutely make this tense. France are just very hard to actually kill off.

Player to Watch: Achraf Hakimi

Mbappé is the obvious answer, but Hakimi feels like the player who tells us whether Morocco can make this game look different from 2022.

Morocco need territory, pressure relievers and moments where France’s back line has to turn toward its own goal. Hakimi gives them all three. His ability to carry the ball forward and combine quickly on the right side may be Morocco’s best way to avoid getting trapped in their own half.

He also has the emotional layer of facing Mbappé and France again, which makes the matchup even better. Hakimi has to be one of Morocco’s best players for this upset to feel real.

Prediction: France 2–1 Morocco

I want Morocco to make this uncomfortable, and I think they will.

They are good enough in transition for France to cruise through this match. Hakimi will create problems, Brahim will find pockets and Ounahi will make at least one moment in the box feel dangerous.

Saibari’s absence is the difference for me. Morocco can still compete without him, but France have too many ways to create chances and lots of individual quality once the match starts opening up. Mbappé gets his moment, Morocco answer, and France eventually find the second action that sends them into another semifinal.

Morocco are not a surprise anymore. France still have the game-changers.

I was at Portugal–Spain in Dallas, and for most of the night it felt like the kind of match waiting for one mistake, one run or one loose touch to decide everything. Portugal had moments, Spain controlled more of the rhythm, and Cristiano Ronaldo spent most of the night trying to find one final World Cup opening against a team that refused to give him much space.

Then Mikel Merino arrived. Spain won 1–0 in stoppage time, Ronaldo’s final World Cup ended in front of us, and AT&T Stadium had that strange feeling where everyone knew they had watched something historic but nobody really knew what to do with it yet.

I went in expecting Ronaldo against Yamal to feel like a passing-of-the-torch game. It ended up feeling quieter than that. More painful too. One career did not get the dramatic ending. Another Spanish team kept moving.

That is the World Cup. It does not always give legends the ending everyone came to see.

The United States got hit with the other kind of pain. Belgium beat the U.S. 4–1 in Seattle, and there is not much use pretending it was closer than that. Malik Tillman gave the Americans a moment with his free kick, but Belgium were sharper, cleaner and more ruthless whenever the U.S. made mistakes. Charles De Ketelaere was excellent, Romelu Lukaku finished it late, and Christian Pulisic leaving with an ankle injury made the night feel even worse.

That result will probably sit with people for a while. A home World Cup was supposed to be the moment the U.S. took another step.

In some ways, it did. They won a knockout game, gave the country memorable moments and made the tournament feel bigger here. But Belgium also showed the distance that still exists between having a talented team and having a team ready to beat elite European opponents in the biggest matches.

Day 27 closes out the Round of 16.

Argentina face Egypt in Atlanta, which means Lionel Messi and Mohamed Salah share a World Cup knockout stage. Then Colombia meet Switzerland in Vancouver, which means I will spend the entire afternoon pretending I am calm.

I will not be calm. That’s how these Colombia days go.

Messi and Salah Share a Knockout Stage

This matchup sells itself because of the names, but the actual tactics are interesting for different reasons.

Argentina are still Argentina. They survived Cape Verde in extra time, which was much closer than any Messi fan wanted it to be, but surviving uncomfortable matches is part of why this team has stayed near the top for so long. Lionel Scaloni’s side does not always need to overwhelm teams.

It usually needs enough patience and one player who can make a normal moment feel unfair. That player is still Lionel Messi.

What makes this version of Argentina so difficult is how much patience he gives the rest of the team. Argentina do not rush when a game becomes tense. They can keep recycling possession, wait for Egypt’s midfield to shift half a step too far, and trust Messi to turn one small opening into something dangerous.

Egypt got here differently. They needed penalties to get past Australia, and Mohamed Salah has been working his way back from a hamstring issue that has shaped almost everything about their tournament. Argentina cannot treat him like a normal wide forward because he only needs one quick pass, one defender leaning the wrong way or one transition chance to sentence the match.

It is impossible not to frame the match this way. Argentina have Messi. Egypt have Salah. It captures the emotional weight of the match. Salah has carried so much of Egypt’s football history that this game feels like more than a Round of 16 tie for them.

That is where this becomes tricky for Argentina. They will have more of the ball, but Egypt are comfortable defending and waiting for the match to offer them counter-attack moments. Hossam Hassan’s side need to keep it close, close central areas and make Argentina defend set pieces and counters.

Argentina’s midfield will decide the rhythm. Alexis Mac Allister, Rodrigo De Paul and Enzo Fernández give Scaloni enough control to keep Egypt pinned, but the key is patience without becoming slow. Cape Verde showed that Argentina can be dragged into nervous games when opponents stay compact and play physically.

Egypt’s problem is that defending Argentina requires constant focus in areas where one mistake becomes an easy chance. Messi still controls the emotional pace of Argentina’s attack. When he pauses, everyone else waits. When he accelerates the pass, the whole team moves with him. That is a hard rhythm to defend for 90 minutes.

Player to Watch: Mohamed Salah

I am going with Salah here because Egypt’s entire upset case depends on how much he can still change the match physically.

Argentina will have the ball. Egypt will have stretches where they are defending deep and waiting for one opportunity to turn pressure into opportunity. Salah is the player who can make those moments feel real instead of hopeful.

He needs one moment where Argentina’s defensive line is not perfectly set.

Prediction: Argentina 2–1 Egypt

Egypt will make this more difficult than people expect. Salah’s presence alone gives them a plan into the match, and their defensive shape should keep Argentina from turning this into a comfortable early afternoon.

Argentina still have more control, more tournament experience and too many ways to manage difficult games. Messi controls the rhythm, Argentina find their moments and Egypt’s run ends with a respectable but frustrating loss.

Colombia Cannot Let Switzerland Turn This Into Their Match

This is the one that will ruin my day until kickoff. Colombia have been good enough in this tournament to make people believe. That is usually where the stress starts.

They topped a group with Portugal, DR Congo and Uzbekistan, then beat Ghana 1–0 in a match that felt more comfortable in the final score than it did while watching it. Jhon Arias scored early, Colombia defended well, and the final whistle mattered more than style points. That is fine in a knockout tournament. Nobody gives trophies for winning beautifully in the Round of 32.

Switzerland are exactly the kind of opponent that makes this uncomfortable. They are organized, experienced and very good at turning matches into something tighter than opponents want.

Colombia cannot let Switzerland make this feel slow.

Néstor Lorenzo’s team are at their best when Luis Díaz and Jhon Arias can receive early, attack defenders and force the opponent’s back line to make panicked decisions. James Rodríguez is still the player who connects those moments. He does not need to play like it is 2014. He just needs to find the pocket, lift his head and make the pass that changes the entire attack.

James was forced off at halftime against Ghana, but reports indicate he is not under a major injury and is expected to start. That matters because Colombia’s attack looks different when he is available from the beginning. Díaz can create chaos, Arias can carry pressure and Gustavo Puerta can give Colombia energy in midfield, but James gives Colombia the pause before the punch.

Jhon Córdoba’s injury changes the shape of the attack. Córdoba has been ruled out for the rest of the tournament after suffering an adductor tear against Ghana. Luis Javier Suárez is expected to step into the central striker role, and that is not a small adjustment.

Córdoba gives Colombia power, depth and a physical penalty-box prescence. Suárez brings movement and confidence, especially after coming off the bench and helping create the winner against Ghana, but Colombia will need him to occupy Akanji and Nico Elvedi long enough for Díaz, James and Arias to work around him.

That is where Gustavo Puerta becomes important.

Puerta is not the name most casual viewers will circle first. That will be Díaz, James, Xhaka or Akanji.

But in a match like this, Colombia need someone with his energy, positioning and willingness to play forward quickly. It will matter a lot against a Swiss midfield that wants to slow the game down and make Colombia defend without the ball.

Xhaka will make this a game of control. Jefferson Lerma and Puerta have to make it a game of pressure, second balls and quicker forward passes. Colombia do not need to play recklessly, but they cannot become passive. Letting Switzerland dictate tempo for long periods is how the game starts slipping into Swiss comfort.

That is my biggest fear. Switzerland making the match feel smaller, slower and more irritating until one set piece or one loose clearance changes everything.

There is also Swiss team news to watch. Johan Manzambi, one of Switzerland’s breakout players in this tournament, left training early with a knee issue and has been reported out by some sources. Ruben Vargas and Djibril Sow also left training early, while Switzerland have been monitoring other fitness concerns around the squad. That does not suddenly make Switzerland easy to play against, but it does remove some of the attacking variety and running power that made them dangerous earlier in the tournament.

Colombia have the better attacking players. Switzerland have the kind of structure that makes better attacking players prove it.

I hate that sentence because I know exactly what it means.

Player to Watch: Gustavo Puerta

I love this kid. I swear he has five lungs. He will be critical today.

Luis Díaz is Colombia’s pressure release. James is the connector. Arias gives Colombia another player who can carry and combine. But Puerta is the player who will tell us whether Colombia can keep Switzerland from controlling the match.

Against Xhaka, every midfield action matters. Puerta has to close passing lanes, win second balls and move the ball forward quickly enough that Colombia do not spend the afternoon trapped in Switzerland’s rhythm.

It’s usually not glamorous. Puerta makes it glamorous.

It is exactly the kind of job that decides knockout games.

Prediction:

You’re funny.

What I will say is this: Colombia have enough quality to win this match, but Switzerland are built to make it uncomfortable. Xhaka will slow the game down, Akanji will organize the back line and Colombia will probably have moments where possession does not turn into enough clear chances.

Colombia need Díaz to create separation, James to find the right pass and Puerta to keep the midfield from becoming Switzerland’s comfort zone.

I will not be normal during any of it.

Last night gave us one upset and one of the matches of the tournament.

Norway knocked Brazil out of the World Cup 2–1, and the match somehow felt exactly like what everyone feared when Erling Haaland appeared on Brazil’s side of the bracket. Brazil had more talent, more cheers and probably more of the chances. Norway had Haaland, and that was enough.

Then came the Azteca.

England and Mexico delivered the kind of knockout match that reminds you why this tournament keeps destroying prediction brackets. Jude Bellingham scored twice, Harry Kane converted a penalty and Mexico spent the final half hour throwing numbers forward after Jarell Quansah’s red card changed the game completely.

By the end of it, Kane could barely speak during his post-match interview and Bellingham looked like someone had asked him to immediately play another 90 minutes at altitude. That is usually a pretty good indication that everyone involved left something on the field.

Even politics somehow found its way into the story. Donald Trump publicly praised Kane after the match and became part of the conversation surrounding Folarin Balogun’s suspension at almost exactly the same time, which feels like a sentence that only makes sense during a World Cup in the United States.

Today’s schedule gives us Portugal against Spain in Dallas and the United States against Belgium in Seattle.

I will be at Portugal–Spain.

Cristiano Ronaldo against Lamine Yamal in what Ronaldo has confirmed will be his final World Cup is not the sort of match I am capable of watching objectively. I am going to make a serious effort to approach it like a reporter.

That effort will probably last until kickoff.

The Iberian Derby Gets a World Cup Stage

I don’t think I have looked forward to a match more than this one all tournament.

The easy version of this preview is Ronaldo against Yamal. The more interesting version is what happens in the middle of the field.

Spain have become one of the most complete teams in the tournament. Since the opening draw with Cape Verde, they have not conceded a goal, they have controlled matches almost entirely through possession and spacing, and they have looked comfortable defending without the ball when opponents force them into those moments.

Portugal offer a very different challenge.

Roberto Martínez’s side are comfortable playing through pressure rather than around it. Vitinha and João Neves are both willing to receive with defenders tight to their backs, Bruno Fernandes constantly looks for vertical passes before defenses settle, and Bernardo Silva’s movement inside creates overloads that can drag midfielders away from Rodri.

That may be the entire match.

Portugal’s biggest advantage comes when Vitinha can receive, turn and play forward before Spain’s press arrives. Whoever wins that exchange probably controls the evening.

Spain want Lamine Yamal isolated against defenders as often as possible, but Portugal may have the best answer left in the tournament. Nuno Mendes is healthy, fresh and one of the few fullbacks in the world with the pace and physicality to survive repeated one-on-one situations against him.

Yamal himself has called Mendes the toughest opponent he has faced. That does not mean Yamal disappears from the match. It means he may have to find different ways to influence it.

Portugal will also believe there is space behind Spain’s fullbacks. João Cancelo and Rafael Leão attacking transitions against a high Spanish line is a matchup Portugal should welcome, especially if Spain are missing Nico Williams again and ask more of Marc Cucurella in possession. Spain continue to monitor Williams while Yeremy Pino remains unavailable.

The emotional side of this game is obvious.

One of the greatest international careers football has ever seen is trying to buy itself another week.

The football side is pretty good too.

Player to Watch: Vitinha

Everyone will start talking about Ronaldo. Most of them will end talking about Yamal.

Vitinha may end up deciding the match anyway.

When Portugal play their best football, it usually starts with him escaping pressure and turning midfield into open space for Bruno and Leão to attack. If Spain force him backward all afternoon, Portugal become reactive rather than proactive.

That is exactly the version of this game Spain want.

Prediction: Portugal 2–1 Spain

Spain may be the best team left in the tournament. I am still picking Portugal.

Part of that is emotional and I am comfortable admitting it. Ronaldo in his final World Cup against Spain in Dallas feels almost too perfect a setup for football not to do something ridiculous.

The tactical reasons exist too. Portugal have more depth off the bench, more flexibility if the match changes shape and a midfield that matches Spain’s better than most teams can.

Ronaldo gets his moment. Bruno creates one. Portugal survive one of the matches of the tournament.

Can The United States Make Belgium Defend Backwards?

Seattle is going to be ridiculous for this. The atmosphere matters.

The football matters more.

Belgium remain one of the most talented teams left in the field, but they have looked vulnerable whenever opponents have forced their back line to turn and run toward its own goal. Senegal created problems through wide players and direct running, and the United States have to ask similar questions.

Balogun’s availability changes the entire conversation.

His suspension has officially been lifted, Belgium’s federation remains furious and FIFA somehow managed to turn a straightforward disciplinary decision into one of the biggest stories of the knockout stage.

Whatever anyone thinks about the politics of it, the football impact is obvious. The United States are better with him.

Balogun stretches defenses in a way no other American forward currently can. That matters because Christian Pulisic becomes much more dangerous when center backs are worried about runs behind them rather than stepping aggressively into midfield.

That battle is where I keep coming back. I have written some version of this sentence throughout the tournament, but I trust midfields in knockout football.

Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie and Malik Tillman give the United States balance, ball-winning and progression. Belgium have Kevin De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans, which means this may simply become a fight over who receives facing forward and who receives with someone immediately arriving on their back.

Adams probably spends most of the evening chasing De Bruyne’s passing lanes. McKennie probably spends most of it trying to make Belgium’s midfield slightly more miserable than it wants to be.

Both jobs matter.

Belgium will likely have more possession. The United States may actually prefer that.

Pochettino’s team have looked their most dangerous when they can defend aggressively, recover the ball and attack before opponents settle into shape. Belgium’s fullbacks have been vulnerable in transition and Pulisic attacking those spaces is probably the clearest route to an American goal.

That is where Seattle starts becoming relevant. Because fast teams become faster when the crowd starts helping every transition feel urgent.

Player to Watch: Tyler Adams

Adams will quietly decide the match.

If he can keep De Bruyne receiving with his back to goal rather than facing the American defense, the United States have a real chance of controlling the game without controlling possession.

That is exactly the type of midfielder I trust in tournaments.

Prediction: United States 2–1 Belgium

This American squad feels built for this kind of match.

Belgium have the bigger names and the cleaner structure. The United States have the legs in midfield, the transition threat out wide and now, thanks to Balogun’s availability, the striker who makes the entire attack fit together.

Pulisic creates one. Balogun scores one. Seattle gets the night it wants.

Morocco are not a surprise anymore. That feels like the biggest takeaway from yesterday.

Canada started with energy, pressed well and made the first half very uncomfortable, but Morocco handled it and then did what experienced tournament teams do. They waited for the match to turn, punished open space and turned a dangerous game into a 3–0 win that looked much cleaner on the scoreboard than it actually was.

Azzedine Ounahi scored twice, Soufiane Rahimi added another, and Morocco became the first team into the quarterfinals. Canada leave with a historic tournament, a knockout win and a better sense of what this team can become before 2030. Morocco continues with another quarterfinal and another reminder that they are one of the best teams left.

France followed with the kind of win that didn’t need to be beautiful. Paraguay made the match physical, slow and frustrating, which is exactly what they did to Germany. France were missing Aurélien Tchouaméni, dealt with the heat in Philadelphia and never really found the free-flowing version of themselves. Then Kylian Mbappé stepped up from the penalty spot and solved the game anyway.

That is usually the difference with France. They just need one moment where the opponent blinks.

Now Day 25 gives us two very different games. Brazil face Norway in New Jersey, which means Vinícius Júnior and Erling Haaland share the same knockout stage. Then Mexico host England at the Azteca, where altitude, noise, pressure and history all become part of the tactical preview.

I already missed on Ecuador at the Azteca once. Apparently I learned nothing, because I still think that stadium can change a match.

Brazil Meet The Haaland Problem

Brazil against Norway sounds simple until you actually start thinking about it. Brazil have the better squad, the better tournament history and more ways to win the match.

Norway have Erling Haaland. He’s not a small thing to put on the other side of the argument.

Carlo Ancelotti’s team survived Japan in the Round of 32 thanks to Gabriel Martinelli’s stoppage-time winner, and that match (in theory) gave Brazil a useful warning. Japan forced them to solve problems. They did not let Brazil drift through the game on reputation.

The difference is that Norway’s danger is much more obvious. Haaland has been one of the best players in the world, and Norway’s entire structure makes sense because of him. Ståle Solbakken needs his team to get Haaland service in areas where one touch can become a goal. Martin Ødegaard gives Norway the passing quality to make that happen, while Antonio Nusa adds speed around him.

Casemiro, Bruno Guimarães and the center backs have a tall task. Brazil have defenders familiar with Haaland from club football, but knowing what is coming and stopping it are not the same thing.

Brazil, of course, have their own problems to offer.

Vinícius Júnior has looked like the player Brazil needed him to become. He makes every opponent defend with one eye on the left wing. Neymar’s fitness has been monitored throughout the tournament, but Carlo Ancelotti has suggested he can play a larger role now. Raphinha has returned to training and could be available from the bench, while Lucas Paquetá is expected to miss out with a hamstring strain. That absence matters more than it might seem.

Brazil can replace quality with quality, but Paquetá gives them a mix of work rate, combination play and timing. Without him, Brazil may need more from Bruno Guimarães and Rayan between the lines. The midfield cannot become too passive because Norway will happily let Brazil have the ball in safe areas and wait for one mistake to launch Haaland.

Brazil will create chances. Norway will create fewer, but theirs will feel terrifying every time Haaland gets near the penalty area. That is what makes him different. He can be quiet for 30 minutes and still make the entire match feel like it is leaning toward him.

As someone who usually enjoys teams that make favorites solve uncomfortable problems, I understand the Norway argument. I just think Brazil have more answers.

Player to Watch: Vinícius Júnior

Haaland is the obvious headline, but Vinícius may decide whether Brazil control this game or simply trade moments with Norway.

Once the block starts shifting toward him, Brazil’s central players find more space and the far-side winger becomes more dangerous.

Brazil need Vinícius to make Norway defend more than just the scoreboard.

Prediction: Brazil 2–1 Norway

Ødegaard will create chances, Nusa will find space in transition and Haaland is probably getting a moment somewhere along the way because that is what he does.

I still trust Brazil’s depth more than Norway’s.

Vinícius feels ready for one of those performances where every touch changes the defense, Guimarães gives Brazil another creator between the lines and Ancelotti simply has more answers available once the match starts changing.

Harland gets his goal. Brazil gets the result.

England Have A Mountain To Climb. Literally.

This is the match of the day.

Brazil–Norway has the bigger individual matchup because of Haaland, but Mexico–England has the better setting. A World Cup knockout match at the Azteca. Mexico coming off its first knockout win in 40 years. England walking into altitude, noise, weather concerns and a fan base that has already made life uncomfortable for opponents before kickoff.

That is part of the game.

Mexico have been efficient, disciplined and defensively excellent throughout the tournament. They beat Ecuador 2–0 in the Round of 32, kept another clean sheet and finally removed a burden that had been hanging over them since 1986. Javier Aguirre’s team overwhelms opponents with constant pressing waves. Teams cannot breathe against Mexico. They wait for the moments when the stadium starts pushing the match toward them.

Thomas Tuchel has a right-back problem again. Reece James has been managing fitness issues, Jarell Quansah has returned to training but has not been fully settled, and Djed Spence is now a doubt with a calf issue. England can adjust, but knockout matches at the Azteca are not where you want to be solving these problems.

The altitude is real too. England have already had to answer strange questions about preparation, including the whole Viagra rumor, which is one of those World Cup subplots that makes you wonder how we got here. Tuchel dismissed it, but the point remains: playing at the Azteca is different. The ball travels differently. Recovery feels different. The crowd feels closer than it probably is. Mexico will try to make all of that matter.

Raúl Jiménez gives them experience and penalty-box presence. Julián Quiñones gives them another direct attacking option. Érik Lira and Luis Romo can make midfield uncomfortable, and Gilberto Mora has added a calmness that still feels ridiculous for a teenager in this environment. Mexico need to keep the match close long enough for every English touch to start feeling heavier.

England’s answer has to come through midfield control. Jude Bellingham, Declan Rice and whichever attacking players Tuchel trusts around Harry Kane have to make the game feel less emotional. England cannot spend 90 minutes reacting to the stadium. They need to make Mexico chase the ball, where Saka or Rashford attack isolated defenders and where Kane receives with runners around him instead of dropping too deep just to help England breathe.

I know England should probably win.

I also know “should” has not exactly been a reliable word in this tournament.

Player to Watch: Jude Bellingham

Bellingham is England’s best chance of turning a chaotic environment into a football match they can control.

He gives them ball-carrying, late runs and the kind of edge that matters when a game starts feeling emotional. Mexico will try to make this a fight for rhythm. Bellingham is one of the few players England have who can win that fight while still creating something going forward.

England need him to be the adult in the room.

Prediction: England 2–1 Mexico

England usually makes these matches harder than they need to be.

Mexico have the crowd, the altitude and a team that knows exactly how it wants to play. The Azteca matters. I still believe that, even after missing on Ecuador a few days ago.

England have the better midfield and, in Jude Bellingham, probably the player most capable of slowing the game down when everything around him starts speeding up.

Kane finds a goal, Bellingham controls enough of the match and England survive one of the most difficult environments left in the tournament.

It will not be comfortable. It probably shouldn’t be.

Football is not for the lighthearted. Yesterday proved it.

Egypt and Australia gave us a match that made everyone involved age five years. Emam Ashour scored early, Australia equalized through a Mohamed Hany own goal, and then the match slowly turned into penalty-shootout tension. Mohamed Salah was not at his sharpest in open play, but he still stepped up in the shootout, scored his penalty and helped Egypt reach the Round of 16 for the first time after a 4–2 win on penalties. It was the moment Egypt had been chasing for decades.

Argentina nearly gave the tournament its biggest shock.

Cape Verde did not just hang around against the defending champions. They kept answering.

Messi scored, Cape Verde responded. Argentina scored again, Cape Verde responded again. Eventually, a late own goal in extra time sent Argentina through 3–2, but Cape Verde left the tournament with one of the best stories of this World Cup.

They were supposed to be happy just to get here. Instead, they pushed Argentina into a match that made the champions look around for answers.

Then Colombia played Ghana, which means I spent most of the night pretending to be normal.

I was not normal.

Jhon Arias scored early, Colombia defended well, Luis Díaz had a goal ruled out for offside, and the final whistle felt much better than the actual match did. Ghana made Colombia work, especially with their physicality and defensive shape, but Colombia handled the game with enough control to move on. It was not perfect, and Jhon Córdoba’s early injury is something to watch, but Colombia are in the Round of 16.

That is all I needed from the night.

Now the tournament changes again. Canada against Morocco opens the day in Houston, followed by Paraguay against France in Philadelphia.

One co-host trying to keep making history. One Moroccan team that has started feeling like a problem. One Paraguay side that already sent Germany home. One French team that still looks like the best in the tournament.

Not a bad way to start the next round.

Canada’s Run Meets Morocco’s Machine

Canada have already done something that matters. They reached the knockout stage. They won a World Cup knockout game. They gave their home tournament a moment that has cemented themselves in Canadian sports history.

Now comes the hard part.

Morocco are not South Africa. They are not a team Canada can simply press into panic for 90 minutes. At some point, we have to stop treating Morocco like a great story and start treating them like one of the best teams left in the tournament.

Canada under Jesse Marsch want energy, pressure and verticality. They want the game to feel fast. They want Jonathan David attacking space, Stephen Eustáquio arriving into second balls and Alphonso Davies stretching the field whenever he is on it. Davies is on the bench after returning from injury, and his role may define how aggressive Canada can be. Even when he is not at full match fitness, he changes how opponents defend because very few players in the world can cover ground like he does.

Canada still have a major absence in midfield with Ismaël Koné out after his leg injury. That matters against Morocco because Koné’s ball-carrying and physical presence would have helped Canada escape pressure. Without him, Eustáquio has even more responsibility to keep Canada connected.

Morocco will test that connection constantly.

Mohamed Ouahbi’s team play with what he has described as organized chaos, and that phrase actually fits them. Morocco are disciplined without being predictable. Ismael Saibari has been one of the best midfielders in the tournament, and Brahim Díaz can create the kind of chaos that makes a defensive shape start guessing. That is dangerous for Canada.

Marsch’s teams are aggressive by nature, but Morocco are very good at punishing aggression that arrives half a step late. Canada have to press with timing, compactness and cover behind the ball. Morocco are too good technically to be bothered by pressure that isn’t coordinated.

The Hakimi matchup is probably the first place to watch.

Canada need Richie Laryea, Davies or whoever ends up dealing with that side to survive more than one action. Hakimi forces wingers to track deeper than they want and creates space inside by constantly threatening outside.

That is why Morocco feel so difficult to play against right now. They can go wide through Hakimi, central through Saibari, between lines through Díaz or into transition through quick passes after winning the ball.

Canada’s best chance is making the match less clean. Not reckless. Not desperate. Just uncomfortable. David has to be clinical with limited touches and Canada’s midfield has to turn second balls into attacks before Morocco can reset.

As someone who has probably spent too much of this tournament backing teams that make favorites uncomfortable, I understand the appeal of Canada here. The energy, Davies back in the picture, David in form, all of it makes sense.

I just keep coming back to Morocco’s balance. They look like a team that knows exactly what kind of tournament they are in.

Player to Watch: Achraf Hakimi

Hakimi is Morocco’s starboy, creator and safety all at once.

Against Canada, his role matters because he can shift the entire field even from right-back. When he gets forward, Canada’s left side has to defend deeper. When Canada lose the ball, Hakimi is one of the first players Morocco will look for to turn pressure into runs. Few fullbacks in the world affect a match this much without needing to dominate the ball.

Prediction: Morocco 2–1 Canada

Canada will make this difficult.

They have lots of energy, belief and too much attacking quality for Morocco to cruise through the match. Davies will give Canada a real weapon when needed, and David only needs one clean chance to change the whole game.

Morocco still have more high quality players, which means more ways to control the match.

Canada’s run has been special. Morocco’s run continues.

France Meet The Team That Does Not Care About Names

Paraguay already ruined one European giant’s tournament. France knows that better than anyone.

Gustavo Alfaro’s side knocked out Germany in the Round of 32 by dragging the match into their world. It was physical, tense, frustrating and exactly the game Germany did not want to play. Paraguay defended well, competed for everything and survived long enough to win on penalties.

It’s an identity. France are a different problem, though.

They have been the most convincing team in the tournament. Kylian Mbappé has looked sharp, Ousmane Dembélé has given them another elite wide threat, and Didier Deschamps’ side have controlled matches without always needing to dominate every minute. France can play fast, slow, direct or patient. That is what separates them everyone else.

The biggest team news is Aurélien Tchouaméni’s will not play due to a thigh injury. That matters because Tchouaméni gives France defensive balance and progression from midfield. Manu Koné is expected to step in, and while France have the depth to survive almost any injury, replacing Tchouaméni against a Paraguay team that thrives on duels and second balls is not a small detail. Paraguay will notice.

Miguel Almirón and Julio Enciso give Paraguay enough attacking quality to make France defend real moments, not just random counters. Diego Gómez gives them running power from midfield, and their set pieces will matter. Against Germany, Paraguay looked comfortable turning every recovery into a chance to breathe, reorganize and make the favorite defend something uncomfortable.

France have to avoid treating this like an easy win.

That sounds obvious, but it is the entire match. Paraguay are not going to win by looking better on a graphic. They are going to win by making France rush passes, absorb contact, defend corners and slowly start to feel like the match is tighter than it should be.

The heat in Philadelphia could also become part of the game. Deschamps has already talked about how extreme conditions can affect performance, and this does not feel like a match where either team will have unlimited energy to press for 90 minutes. That probably helps Paraguay in some ways because they want the game to be slower and more divided. It also helps France because they have the individual quality to decide a slower match with one action.

That is the problem with playing France. You can have the right plan for 70 minutes and still watch Mbappé turn one bad angle into a goal.

Paraguay will not be scared. After Germany, why would they be? But France have more pace, more depth and more match-winners than any opponent Paraguay have faced so far.

I respect Paraguay too much now to dismiss them. I still think France are the worst possible version of a favorite to try this against.

Player to Watch: Kylian Mbappé

Sometimes the obvious answer is still the correct one.

Mbappé changes how teams defend before the ball even gets to him. Fullbacks drop earlier. Center backs open their hips sooner. Midfielders stop pressing as aggressively because they know one pass behind them can become a sprint they are not winning.

Paraguay can make the match ugly. Mbappé can make ugly irrelevant.

Prediction: France 2–0 Paraguay

Paraguay will make France work.

They are too organized, too physical and too confident after beating Germany for this to become easy. The Tchouaméni absence gives Paraguay a real area to test, especially around second balls and midfield duels.

France still have too much.

Mbappé finds one, Dembélé helps create another, and France move into the quarterfinals without giving Paraguay the chaos they need.

I went into Portugal vs. Croatia expecting to watch two legends fight for one more World Cup night.

I left thinking about VAR, Gonçalo Ramos and how weird it feels when a stadium realizes in real time that one of these tournament careers might be ending.

Portugal beat Croatia 2–1 in Toronto, and the match somehow managed to feel emotional, messy, historic and extremely modern all at once. Cristiano Ronaldo scored the first World Cup knockout goal of his career from the spot, Gonçalo Ramos headed in the winner in stoppage time, and Croatia had a late equalizer wiped away after one of those offside decisions that makes everyone in the stadium look around for confirmation. Luka Modrić walked off with Croatia eliminated, Ronaldo walked off with Portugal headed to face Spain, and I walked out feeling like I had watched one era keep going while another probably came to a close.

That was a pretty good first World Cup knockout match to see in person.

Earlier in the day, Spain made Austria look much less annoying than I expected. Mikel Oyarzabal scored twice, Pedro Porro added another, and Spain won 3–0 without allowing a shot on target. That stands out more than the scoreline. Austria were supposed to make Spain uncomfortable with pressure, duels and tempo. Spain turned the match into their own rhythm anyway.

Then came Switzerland, which is where my Algeria pick aged badly. I thought Algeria’s emotion and energy could tilt the match in Vancouver. Switzerland basically responded by reminding everyone that structure works better than vibes. Breel Embolo scored early, Dan Ndoye added another after halftime, and Granit Xhaka helped turn the match into exactly the kind of controlled match Switzerland wanted.

So yes, Algeria over Switzerland did not exactly cover itself in glory. I will take that one too.

The Round of 32 ends today with three very different games. Australia and Egypt meet in Dallas with both countries chasing a rare World Cup knockout win. Argentina face Cape Verde in Miami, where the defending champions meet the best story left in the tournament. Then Colombia and Ghana close the night in Kansas City, which means I will spend the entire day pretending to be calm and then absolutely not being calm by kickoff.

That is usually how Colombia knockout days go.

A Chance Neither Team Wants to Waste

This is probably the least glamorous match of the day. It doesn’t make it the least interesting.

Australia and Egypt are both looking at this game as a real opportunity to do something historic. The Socceroos have made knockout rounds before, but chances to advance deeper into a World Cup do not come around often. Egypt have Mohamed Salah, a proud football history and still very little World Cup knockout success to show for it.

Tony Popovic’s side is physical. They will happily settle for set pieces and long balls. They do not need to dominate possession to create pressure.

Hossam Hassan’s team have more technical quality in the final third, and now they know Mohamed Salah will be part of it from the start after some doubts about his fitness.

Australia can defend deep and make Egypt work for every touch around the box, but preparing for Salah and stopping him are usually two different things. Fullbacks hesitate before stepping forward. Center backs shade toward his side. Midfielders think twice before pressing too aggressively because one pass into space can become a sprint they have already lost.

Omar Marmoush, Trezeguet and the midfield runners around him have to punish the attention Salah creates. Australia will happily commit extra numbers toward Egypt’s captain if nobody else makes them pay for it.

Australia’s defensive approach will likely be to stay compact around the box and make Egypt’s wide players beat them repeatedly rather than giving Salah easy lanes inside. Harry Souttar’s aerial presence matters here, both defensively and on attacking set pieces. In a knockout match that could come down to one chance, Australia will not apologize for making the game physical.

Player to Watch: Mohamed Salah

There is no need to overthink this one. Salah is starting. That changes the conversation.

Australia can defend well and still spend the afternoon worrying about where he is standing, where he is moving and where he might be five seconds from now.

Egypt need him to make one or two moments feel bigger than everything around them.

Prediction: Egypt 1–0 Australia

Australia will make this uncomfortable. They are too organized, too physical and too dangerous on set pieces for Egypt to ease past this game.

I still trust Egypt to find one cleaner attacking moment. Maybe it is Salah. Maybe it comes from the attention Salah creates. Egypt have just enough attacking quality to survive a match that probably will not be pretty.

The Champions Meet the Best Story Left

Cape Verde have already won, in a way.

That does not mean they are satisfied. It just means this World Cup has already given them something nobody can take away. A country making its first World Cup, drawing Spain and Uruguay, reaching the knockouts and then getting Lionel Messi’s Argentina in Miami is the kind of story that sounds fake.

However, Argentina are not here for someone else’s fairytale.

Lionel Scaloni has spent the buildup making sure his team does not treat Cape Verde like a formality, and that is probably the right move. Argentina won all three group matches, rotated players when needed and still looked like the team with the clearest experience of tournament football. They know when to slow a match down, when to press, when to foul, when to wait and when to let Messi decide something that nobody else can decide.

That is still the biggest problem for Cape Verde. Messi may not cover the same ground he once did, but he still bends matches around him. Defenders take smaller steps when he receives. Midfielders stop looking over their shoulders because they are staring at him. Goalkeepers cheat early on free kicks and then regret it. Cape Verde can defend well for 85 minutes and still lose because Messi found a few seconds that nobody else saw.

This isn’t analysis. That is just what watching Argentina has become.

Cape Verde’s best chance is making this a low-energy game for as long as possible. They have already shown they can frustrate elite teams. Their draw with Spain was not an accident, and neither was the way they competed against Uruguay. They defend with pride and are comfortable letting opponents have the ball without letting them have the match.

Argentina will try to pull them apart with patience. Alexis Mac Allister, Rodrigo De Paul and Enzo Fernández give Argentina enough control to keep Cape Verde pinned back, but the key is tempo. Too slow, and Cape Verde can stay compact. Too rushed, and Argentina start forcing passes into traffic.

Argentina are at their best when they make teams defend for so long that eventually somebody loses concentration for a second.

Cristian Romero’s return is one of the bigger boosts Argentina received this week. After missing the Jordan match with a knee issue, he returned to full training and appears to be available if Scaloni wants him.

For Cape Verde, set pieces and counters are the plan. They need to make Argentina defend long throws, free kicks, corners and any loose transition chance with total concentration. That is where underdogs live.

I want Cape Verde to make this interesting because stories like theirs are why the expanded World Cup can work. I also know Argentina are very good at ending stories before they get too romantic.

Player to Watch: Lionel Messi

It is Messi. Sometimes there is no need to be different just for the sake of being different.

Argentina have stars everywhere, but Messi is still the player who turns a normal possession into a tournament moment. Against a compact Cape Verde block, his passing angles, set-piece delivery and ability to find space at walking speed will matter more than Argentina’s possession numbers.

Cape Verde can defend well and still spend the whole night chasing his decisions.

Prediction: Argentina 2–0 Cape Verde

Cape Verde will not embarrass themselves. They are too organized and too proud for that. Argentina should still have too much control, too much experience and too much Messi.

The champions move on, and Cape Verde leave with one of the best stories of the tournament.

Colombia Cannot Let This Become Ghana’s Game

This is the one that will ruin my ability to watch the earlier games like a normal person.

Colombia against Ghana in a World Cup knockout match sounds fun until you remember Colombia are involved and suddenly every harmless pass across the back line feels like a personal attack.

Colombia have been one of the better teams in the tournament. They topped a group with Portugal, DR Congo and Uzbekistan, defended well, created enough chances and looked like a team that understands exactly what Néstor Lorenzo wants from them.

That does not mean this is comfortable. Ghana are not built for comfortable.

They frustrated England, competed throughout Group L and arrive with Antoine Semenyo available, which is a major plus. Mohammed Kudus was already missing from the tournament because of injury, but Ghana still have enough pace, strength and grit to turn this match into something Colombia will have to earn.

Colombia want to create wide isolations for Luis Díaz and Jhon Arias, then let James Rodríguez find the pass that connects everything. James just needs to appear in the right pocket at the right time and make the pass nobody else saw. That has basically been his Colombia career in one sentence.

Luis Díaz is the player Ghana will worry about most. He gives Colombia the one thing every knockout team needs: a way to make something happen when the match gets tight. Díaz can create space for everyone else, even when he is not scoring.

Ghana’s plan will be physicality and compactness. Thomas Partey, if he starts in midfield, gives them experience and ball-winning. Jordan Ayew gives them leadership and the ability to slow the game down when needed. Semenyo gives them the transition threat that can make Colombia’s fullbacks think twice before pushing too high.

Colombia cannot let this become a game of broken rhythm. That is Ghana’s comfort zone. Fouls, pauses, long clearances, second balls, counters, 50-50 duels. Ghana will not mind any of it.

Colombia need emotional control as much as tactical control. They have to move the ball quickly without rushing, press aggressively without overcommitting and avoid the kind of cheap turnovers that turn a manageable game into a track meet.

Jefferson Lerma and Gustavo Puerta matter here because Colombia need midfield balance. Lerma gives them physical presence and protection. Puerta gives them carrying ability and a little bit of youthful edge, which I always appreciate in a midfielder as long as it does not become a yellow-card fest.

The good news is Colombia have no major injury or suspension concerns reported. The bad news is that knockout soccer does not really care how healthy you are once the game starts getting weird.

Player to Watch: Luis Díaz

Díaz is Colombia’s pressure release. When the game gets tight, Colombia need someone who can carry the ball 30 yards, beat a defender or turn a dead possession into a set piece. Díaz gives them that, and Ghana will have to decide how much help they send toward his side.

Send too little, and he can decide the match. Send too much, and James starts finding the space that opens behind the shift. Ghana have to manage that all night.

Prediction:

Nope.

What I will say is this: Colombia have looked like one of the better teams in the tournament. There has been more control to their performances, more patience and more answers when opponents try to drag them into a game they do not want to play.

Tonight is the test. Ghana will make Colombia earn everything. They defend well, compete physically and have enough to turn one mistake into an entirely different match.

The opportunity on the other side is enormous. Switzerland are already waiting in the quarterfinals bracket, and suddenly a path that felt theoretical a week ago feels very real. That is why this match feels bigger than a Round of 32 game.

This is usually where the questions start. Colombia get 90 minutes to answer them.

Knockout tournaments have a way of making every win look different.

England survived the scare. Belgium survived the chaos. The United States survived the pressure of a home knockout match and turned it into one of the cleanest nights of their tournament.

England’s 2–1 win over DR Congo was not comfortable, and honestly, that almost felt predictable. DR Congo played with freedom and forced Thomas Tuchel’s side into the emotional match England fans have spent decades fearing. Harry Kane eventually found the equalizer, England pushed through the second half and avoided what would have been one of the tournament’s biggest shocks. They will face Mexico, but nobody is pretending that was easy.

Belgium’s win over Senegal was even stranger.

Senegal led 2–0 late and looked like they were about to validate almost everything I wrote about them yesterday. They were physical, direct, organized and brave enough to make Belgium look uncomfortable for most of the match. Then Belgium did the thing veteran tournament teams sometimes do. Romelu Lukaku scored, Youri Tielemans equalized, and then Tielemans won it with the latest goal in World Cup history after a VAR-reviewed penalty decision. Senegal deserved better than that ending, but deserving better is not the same as surviving here.

Then came the U.S. This is where I want to leave space for my West Franklin Media recap, because that match deserves more than a quick paragraph here.

West Franklin Media

Five Takeaways from the USMNT's Historic Night Against Bosnia and Herzegovina

Photo: Bryan Berlin/Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0…

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2 months ago · 1 like · Joshua Renza

The short version: the U.S. beat Bosnia 2–0, Folarin Balogun scored, Malik Tillman added the second, and the Americans moved into the Round of 16 even after Balogun’s controversial red card changed the final third of the match. They got the job done, but the red card matters. Balogun will miss the Belgium match, and suddenly one of the biggest questions around the U.S. attack becomes who replaces the player who just gave them the goal they needed. That is how quickly knockout tournaments change.

Day 22 brings a different set of matches. Spain open against Austria in Los Angeles, Portugal and Croatia meet in Toronto in the match I will be attending, and Switzerland face Algeria in Vancouver to close the night.

I will be honest. It is hard not to look past the first two games toward Portugal-Croatia.

Cristiano Ronaldo. Luka Modrić. A knockout match in Toronto. Two teams that have lived through very different versions of tournament pressure. One of them is going home before the Round of 16. It’s a pretty good reason to make the trip.

Spain’s Control Meets Austria’s Press

Spain have spent this tournament looking like one of the few teams that can control a match without making it feel slow. That matters against Austria.

Luis de la Fuente’s team are unbeaten in 34 matches, have conceded very little and enter the Round of 32 as heavy favorites. Spain move opponents around, create overloads on the wings and trust players like Pedri, Rodri, Dani Olmo and Lamine Yamal to find the pass that changes the angle of the attack.

Austria are not built to allow this. Ralf Rangnick’s teams tend to have very little interest in letting opponents settle. Austria press aggressively and try to turn matches into repetitive battles. That makes this matchup more interesting than the odds suggest, because Austria’s best chance is not sitting deep for 90 minutes and hoping Spain miss. Their best chance is making Spain’s buildup feel rushed.

It’s easier said than done. Rodri is the problem.

When Spain can find him, the match starts bending towards his rhythm. He gives Spain the ability to restart attacks when needed. Austria need Konrad Laimer and Marcel Sabitzer to make that first pass into midfield uncomfortable, because Spain become much harder to stop once Rodri and Pedri are facing forward.

The player everyone will talk about is Lamine Yamal. Rangnick has already made it clear that limiting his space is one of Austria’s biggest priorities. Yamal does not need much separation to create danger. Opponents can either send help and leave space elsewhere, or leave him one-on-one and hope your left-back has the night of his life.

Spain do have attacking availability questions to manage. Nico Williams appears unlikely to feature, while Yeremy Pino and Victor Muñoz have both dealt with injuries during the buildup to this match. This puts more responsibility on Álex Baena, Mikel Oyarzabal and Yamal to carry the front line.

Austria have their own concern with Phillipp Mwene out, while Marko Arnautović’s fitness has been monitored.

Spain are the better team. Austria are the kind of opponent that makes favorites earn the label.

Player to Watch: Lamine Yamal

It’s obvious.

Austria’s entire defensive plan will be shaped around preventing him from receiving in space, which says everything about his influence at 18 years old. He changes the shape of Spain’s attack before he even touches the ball. Fullbacks get cautious, midfielders slide over and the far-side defenders start worrying about what opens when everyone leans toward him.

That is superstar gravity, even if it still feels ridiculous to say that about a teenager.

Prediction: Spain 2–0 Austria

Austria will make this more physical than Spain would prefer, especially in the opening half.

However, Spain have too much control in midfield and too many ways to create chances. Yamal gets involved, Rodri keeps Spain from losing control, and La Roja move on without needing to turn it into a classic.

Ronaldo, Modrić and One More Night

Portugal against Croatia in a World Cup knockout match already sells itself, but the Ronaldo-Modrić storyline makes it feel even bigger. Two Ballon d’Or winners. Two former teammates who have carried their countries through different eras. Two careers that have refused to follow normal aging curves. It is not hard to get sentimental about it.

The actual football might be even better than the nostalgia.

Portugal have no fresh injury concerns and come into this match with one of the deepest squads left in the tournament. Roberto Martínez rotated during the group stage, but the structure is familiar by now. Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva give Portugal control, Rafael Leão gives them a direct threat on the left, and Cristiano Ronaldo remains the penalty-box reference point that still changes how center backs defend.

Ronaldo does not need to dominate every possession to influence the match. He bothers defenders, attacks crosses and forces opponents to defend the box with a little less comfort than they would like. Against Croatia, that could matter because Zlatko Dalić’s team have already shown moments of defensive vulnerability in this tournament.

Croatia are still Croatia, though, which means writing them off usually goes wrong.

They were not convincing in the group stage, but they found a way through. That has basically become a national tournament identity at this point. Luka Modrić still controls matches in ways that do not always show up immediately on a stat sheet. Mateo Kovačić gives them experience in midfield and Ivan Perišić remains one of those players who always seems to appear in the right place during World Cups.

Portugal want Bruno and Bernardo receiving between Croatia’s lines, forcing Modrić and Brozović to defend larger spaces than they want to cover at this stage of their careers. Croatia want enough time for Modrić to turn the match into something slower and more familiar.

As someone who grew up watching these names define international tournaments, I am trying not to turn this into a goodbye column before the game even starts. But it is impossible to ignore what is at stake. Ronaldo and Modrić may not both get many more World Cup knockout nights. One of them is probably leaving Toronto with the kind of final image nobody wants to write yet.

Portugal’s wide players may decide how comfortable Croatia can actually become. Leão attacking space against Croatia’s right side is a matchup Portugal should like. João Cancelo’s positioning can also pull Croatia’s midfield out of shape, especially when Bernardo drifts inside and overloads that half-space.

Croatia’s best chance comes from making the game messy in their own controlled way. That sounds contradictory, but it is not. They want fouls, set pieces and moments where Portugal start forcing the final pass. Portugal are dangerous when they play quickly. They become easier to defend when every attack turns into one extra touch. We saw this against Colombia.

I will be in the stadium, so I am probably going to overthink every Ronaldo shot, every Modrić touch and every moment where the crowd realizes this might be one of those games people remember because of who was on the field. Not a bad way to spend a Thursday night.

Player to Watch: Bruno Fernandes

Ronaldo and Modrić will dominate the conversation, but Bruno may decide the match.

Portugal need someone who can turn possession into actual chances before Croatia get into their defensive shape. Bruno does that better than anyone in this team. His passing range, late runs and willingness to risk a difficult pass give Portugal the edge they need against a Croatia side that would love to slow everything down.

When Bruno is sharp, Portugal stop looking predictable very quickly.

Prediction: Portugal 2–1 Croatia

This feels close because Croatia know how to make knockout matches uncomfortable.

Portugal have more variety, more pace in wide areas and a midfield that can hurt Croatia if the game opens up. Croatia have Modrić, tournament experience and the stubbornness to make everyone uncomfortable until the final whistle.

I think Portugal have just enough. Ronaldo gets his moment, Bruno controls the rhythm, and Croatia finally run out of tournament lives.

Algeria Get Their Vancouver Moment

This deserves more attention than it will get.

Switzerland are experienced playing tight matches. Algeria are the kind of team that can turn one bad defensive transition into a goal before you realize the match has changed.

Vancouver should be a scene too.

One of my favorite things about this World Cup in North America has been watching supposedly neutral venues slowly choose sides over the course of a match. Switzerland already played in Vancouver during the group stage, but Algeria travel with a supporter base that has made itself heard throughout this tournament. This feels like one of those nights where the atmosphere becomes part of the game.

Switzerland know exactly who they are. Murat Yakin’s side do not give opponents the open match they want. The issue is that Algeria have enough individual quality to disrupt that structure.

Riyad Mahrez remains the obvious headline name, but that does not make him any easier to stop.

At this stage of his career, Mahrez influences matches with timing. One touch to slow the game down, one pass through a defensive line or one moment where a defender gives him slightly more space than he should.

Algeria are more balanced than many people realize. Amine Gouiri gives them movement, Houssem Aouar gives them progression through midfield and Mohamed Amoura gives them the pace to punish teams that get stretched chasing the match.

That combination makes Algeria difficult to prepare for. They can play through midfield when matches slow down, but they are equally comfortable turning one turnover into a sprint toward goal.

Switzerland spend ninety minutes trying to remove chaos from matches. Algeria will spend ninety minutes trying to find it. Switzerland make opponents earn every inch of the field. Algeria make opponents survive every transition.

That feels like an entertaining combination in a knockout match.

Player to Watch: Riyad Mahrez

Mahrez may only need one moment.

Switzerland are disciplined enough to limit chances for long stretches. The problem is that Mahrez has spent most of his career proving that long moments without the ball don’t matter.

The pass, the touch or the shot arrives eventually.

Prediction: Algeria 2–1 Switzerland

I keep trying to talk myself into Switzerland. Then I come back to Algeria.

The Swiss have more structure, more tournament experience and probably more control of possession. Algeria have the kind of unpredictability that can undo a defensive structure in one sequence.

I have spent most of this tournament trusting teams that know how to make favorites uncomfortable. I am going to keep doing it here.

Mahrez finds the moment. Algeria find the quarterfinals.

Yesterday belonged to the teams that handled pressure best.

Mexico finally put an end to four decades of frustration in the knockout rounds, controlling the match at the Azteca and beating Ecuador 2–0 to reach the Round of 16. Norway survived exactly the kind of physical battle they expected against Ivory Coast before Erling Haaland eventually did what Erling Haaland usually does in tournaments like this and found the winner late. France somehow managed to be the least dramatic team of the day, which might be the most frightening thing about them right now. Kylian Mbappé scored twice, Bradley Barcola added another, and Sweden never really managed to make the match uncomfortable.

So yes, the Ecuador prediction aged badly. I will take that one.

It felt like a reminder that knockout football punishes hesitance faster than almost anything else in sport. Mexico trusted their structure, Norway trusted their stars and France trusted the ridiculous amount of attacking talent they keep rolling onto the field.

Day 21 brings a different challenge. England, Belgium and the United States all enter as favorites, but the knockout rounds have already shown that being the better team on paper and surviving ninety minutes are not always the same thing.

England’s Right Side Has a Problem

England should win this match. That sentence felt safer a week ago.

Thomas Tuchel’s side won Group L and avoided the kind of group-stage chaos that can derail a tournament before the knockouts even settle in. On paper, England have the stronger squad, more attacking options and considerably more tournament experience.

However, England’s history in matches like this is a little less convincing.

Maybe this is just years of watching England tournaments talking, but matches like this always make me nervous on their behalf.

DR Congo arrive with lots of freedom and very little pressure. They pushed Portugal, competed well against Colombia and came from behind to beat Uzbekistan for their first World Cup victory. Yoane Wissa has been one of the stories of the tournament, and Sébastien Desabre’s side have become increasingly comfortable on the counter-attack.

England’s biggest issue sits at right back.

Reece James is unavailable, Jarell Quansah is dealing with an ankle issue and Tino Livramento has not recovered in time for the knockout rounds. Djed Spence is expected to start, and while he gives England pace, building a new partnership on that side of the field in a knockout match is not ideal.

Declan Rice returning to midfield changes the shape of the game for England.

Rice allows Jude Bellingham to play higher and more aggressively between the lines, which may end up deciding the entire match. England need Bellingham receiving in dangerous areas rather than dropping deep, and they need Bukayo Saka isolated against defenders instead of receiving with two players already waiting for him.

Harry Kane will eventually get touches. The more important question is whether England can create enough movement around him to pull DR Congo’s defensive block out of position.

As much as I enjoy underdogs making favorites uncomfortable, this feels slightly beyond DR Congo’s ceiling.

Player to Watch: Jude Bellingham

Bellingham changes the speed of England’s football.

Kane scores goals, Rice stabilizes matches and Saka creates width, but Bellingham decides whether England feel cautious or dangerous. When he starts carrying the ball forward and arriving late in the penalty area, England suddenly look far more difficult to contain.

DR Congo would probably prefer this match to become compact and physical, with England circulating possession in front of them rather than through them. Bellingham is the player most capable of breaking that rhythm with one carry through midfield or one run beyond Kane. If England find themselves frustrated after an hour, this is usually where he starts taking the match personally.

Prediction: England 2–1 DR Congo

DR Congo have enough pace and confidence to make England work for this.

England have spent the last decade turning comfortable situations into uncomfortable ones often enough that the anxiety never fully disappears.

England still have too much quality through midfield and too many solutions in the final third to let this become another Germany or Netherlands story.

Bellingham finds space, Kane eventually finds a goal, and England survive the first hour of tension that seems to follow them everywhere they go.

Belgium Have The Names. Senegal Have The Personality.

Belgium have spent most of this tournament trying to prove this generation belongs in the conversation.

Senegal doesn’t seem interested in conversations.

Belgium looked far more convincing in the 5–1 win over New Zealand, and Jeremy Doku’s return gives them a different way of attacking. Kevin De Bruyne remains the creative center of everything they do, while Doku and Leandro Trossard give Belgium width and unpredictability that simply were not there earlier in the tournament.

The problem is that Senegal feel built for exactly this sort of game.

Pape Matar Sarr and Pape Gueye bring energy and aggression in midfield, while Ismaïla Sarr and Nicolas Jackson can turn recoveries into attacks before Belgium have time to organize defensively. Senegal can become dangerous in a few passes.

As someone who has spent years watching Senegal look slightly better than their tournament finishes suggest, this feels like the type of matchup that finally swings their way.

I also have a soft spot for teams that make favorites solve football problems instead of simply trying to survive them. Senegal tend to do exactly that.

The Édouard Mendy injury matters.

Losing a goalkeeper with his experience changes the feel of a knockout match, and Mory Diaw will almost certainly see more work than he would prefer against Belgium’s attack.

Still, the midfield battle keeps bringing me back to Senegal.

Belgium want De Bruyne receiving with time and space to turn. Senegal have spent the tournament making sure creators never receive either. If De Bruyne spends the evening receiving with his back to goal instead of facing it, Belgium’s attack starts looking much more ordinary.

That produces the kind of midfield battle I enjoy watching.

Player to Watch: Ismaïla Sarr

De Bruyne will get the headlines. Sarr may decide the game.

His ability to attack space quickly and force defenders into recovery runs gives Senegal a chance every time Belgium lose their shape. The more Belgium push numbers forward, the more dangerous Sarr becomes.

One clean touch from Sarr can turn a controlled possession sequence into a foot race toward goal. If Belgium spend the evening asking questions in possession, Sarr may end up providing the answer in transition.

Prediction: Senegal 2–1 Belgium

I keep coming back to Senegal here.

Belgium have more tournament pedigree, more recognizable names and probably more possession. Senegal feel better suited for the kind of match this is likely to become.

Pape Matar Sarr and Pape Gueye give Senegal enough aggression to disrupt Belgium’s rhythm in midfield, while Sarr and Jackson can turn recoveries into attacks before Belgium have time to settle defensively.

I think Senegal are exactly the type of team this tournament has rewarded so far.

The U.S. Cannot Let This Become A Waiting Game

This is the kind of match the United States wanted and feared at the same time. They avoided Brazil, France and Argentina. That sounds like good news until you remember what comes next.

They are at home, they are favored and anything short of advancing will feel like failure.

Bosnia and Herzegovina are dangerous because they can play freely. Edin Džeko gives them experience and penalty-box IQ, while the players around him have enough technical quality to make the United States defend for longer stretches than the crowd may want.

The Christian Pulisic decision feels increasingly straightforward.

Start him.

Pulisic says he feels ready after recovering from the calf issue that kept him out of the Australia match, and the U.S. attack simply looks different when he is on the field. Defenders shift toward him, spaces appear elsewhere and set pieces immediately become more dangerous.

In a knockout game at home, there is very little value in saving your best player for later.

Tyler Adams matters almost as much.

I’ve probably written some version of this sentence ten times during the tournament, but in knockout football I tend to trust midfields. Adams gives the United States leadership, ball-winning and the ability to stop counters before they become emergencies. Weston McKennie provides physicality, while Folarin Balogun gives the United States a forward willing to run beyond defenders and force back lines to make decisions they would rather avoid.

Bosnia know exactly what they want the match to become. Protect the middle. Keep the score close. Let Džeko turn one chance into a goal.

The United States cannot spend an hour waiting for the game to happen to them.

Antonee Robinson has to provide width on the left. Tim Weah has to threaten in behind on the right. The United States are at their best when the field feels stretched and the midfield can arrive into gaps rather than forcing everything through crowded central spaces.

Player to Watch: Christian Pulisic

This is why Pulisic matters. He changes the math.

Defenders cheat toward him. Midfields shift toward him. Fullbacks hesitate because they know one mistake can become a sprint toward goal.

Few American players have ever carried that kind of weight.

Maybe that pressure is unfair. It is also the reality of being the face of soccer in the United States during a home World Cup.

Prediction: United States 2–1 Bosnia and Herzegovina

I think Bosnia make this uncomfortable.

Džeko is too smart, the occasion is too big and the pressure on the United States is too obvious for this to become an easy night.

Maybe this is just years of watching U.S. tournaments talking, but these are exactly the kinds of nights that tend to age everyone involved.

The U.S. still have more athleticism, more attacking variety and a crowd that should matter if the game starts tilting in their favor.

Pulisic gets involved. McKennie has a moment. The United States survive.

European teams probably won’t remember Day 19 very fondly.

Brazil needed a stoppage-time winner from Gabriel Martinelli to avoid becoming the tournament’s biggest upset so far. Germany dominated possession, generated chances and still found themselves losing a World Cup penalty shootout for the first time after Paraguay dragged them into the exact match Gustavo Alfaro wanted. Morocco and the Netherlands then delivered one of the best games of the tournament, with Yassine Bounou once again becoming the hero in a shootout that felt destined for him the moment extra time ended.

I picked Morocco yesterday, so I will allow myself one paragraph of victory laps before moving on.

Day 20 brings three more Round of 32 matches and three very different battles. Norway and Ivory Coast meet in Dallas in what could become the most physical match of the round. France try to avoid becoming the next heavyweight to fall against Sweden, while Mexico and Ecuador close the evening at the Azteca.

Germany are gone. Netherlands are gone. Japan nearly took Brazil with them. Everyone left should probably be paying attention.

Power Against Power

This game will be decided by which midfield handles chaos better.

Ivory Coast and Norway arrive through with different football cultures but surprisingly similar strengths. Both are comfortable attacking directly, both are physical, and both have players capable of turning any ordinary moments into goals.

Norway enter with the biggest names.

Erling Haaland has already scored four goals in the tournament, while Martin Ødegaard returns after being rested in the final group match. The pair solve different problems for Norway. Haaland forces center backs to retreat earlier and fullbacks to become more conservative with their positioning. Ødegaard gives Norway creativity when matches become congested.

Ivory Coast’s challenge begins before the final pass ever reaches Haaland.

Franck Kessié and the midfield have to stop Norway’s progression instead of preparing to defend crosses and through balls. The less Ødegaard receives between the lines, the more predictable Norway become.

Yan Diomande has emerged as one of the breakout players of the tournament, while Nicolas Pépé gives them enough pace to attack space quickly. Amad Diallo gives Ivory Coast another way to hurt Norway, his work rate and willingness to battle for 50/50s reflect the grit this team has played with throughout the tournament.

Norway are expected to be without Julian Ryerson, which removes one of their stronger defenders in wide areas. Ivory Coast are missing Wilfried Singo, but Evan Ndicka helps stabilize the defense against Haaland.

Norway probably have the two best players on the field. That usually matters.

Player to Watch: Martin Ødegaard

Haaland will dominate the headlines. Ødegaard will probably decide whether Norway control the match or simply react to it.

His ability to receive under pressure and create chances turns Norway from a direct team into a more complete one. Against a midfield as physical and aggressive as Ivory Coast’s, that becomes important.

Prediction: Norway 2–1 Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast have enough athleticism and transition speed to make this uncomfortable.

I still trust the combination of Haaland and Ødegaard to create the moments that matter most. Norway have looked more comfortable as the tournament has progressed, and there is something about knockout rounds that tends to reward teams with players capable of solving problems on their own.

France’s Attack Meets Sweden’s Structure

France have been the cleanest team in the tournament so far.

They won all three group matches, scored freely and looked capable of controlling games in different ways. Some teams need matches to follow a specific script. France seem comfortable writing new ones as they go. That flexibility is what makes them difficult to prepare for.

Kylian Mbappé remains the obvious headline, but Ousmane Dembélé’s form has added another problem entirely. Defenses already focus on Mbappé because they have little choice. Dembélé arrives after scoring the second-fastest World Cup hat trick in tournament history against Norway, and defenses can no longer afford to tilt entirely toward Mbappé.

Sweden’s challenge is obvious, but not impossible.

Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres give them two forwards capable of turning defensive stops into attacks and forcing defenders into physical battles. Against France, those moments matter because just surviving without the ball for ninety minutes doesn’t work.

France’s counter-press may become the deciding factor.

When Didier Deschamps’ side lose possession high up the pitch, they recover shape quickly and make the first pass extremely difficult. Sweden’s midfield has to be clean under pressure if they want their forwards involved consistently.

France deserve to be favorites. Sweden are good enough to punish mistakes if France offer them.

Player to Watch: Ousmane Dembélé

Dembélé might be the player who determines how comfortable France’s evening becomes.

When he is sharp, France become almost impossible to cover defensively toward one side of the pitch, and that creates the sort of spacing that these teams spend entire tournaments searching for.

Prediction: France 3–1 Sweden

Sweden have enough attacking talent to score and enough organization to remain competitive. France simply have too many ways to create chances over ninety minutes.

El Tri’s Biggest Test Yet

This is the match.

Mexico have been efficient rather than spectacular.

Javier Aguirre’s side won all three group matches and have yet to concede, but their tournament has been built more on moments of quality than overall performances. That is not criticism. It is probably exactly how Aguirre wants this team to look.

Playing at home helps. It also makes every moment feel larger than it actually is.

The altitude probably helps less than many expect. Few teams remaining in the tournament are better prepared for those conditions than Ecuador.

The Azteca has already been one of the stories of the tournament, and Mexico have benefited from that energy. Opponents feel every tackle, every attack and every restart. El Tri haven’t lost in this stadium during a World Cup. Ever.

Ecuador will not be intimidated by any of it.

Sebastián Beccacece’s side already beat Germany and looked increasingly comfortable as the group stage progressed. Moisés Caicedo has become the center of everything Ecuador do, while Piero Hincapié and Willian Pacho have formed one of the strongest defensive pairings remaining in the tournament.

Mexico’s challenge is controlling midfield without losing width.

Ecuador are comfortable turning matches into pressing and physical battles, particularly through Caicedo and Alan Franco. Mexico need patience in possession without allowing the game to slow into Ecuador’s preferred tempo.

As someone who tends to trust midfields in knockout football, I keep coming back to Ecuador here.

Caicedo changes games. There are not many players left in the tournament who influence every phase the way he does.

Player to Watch: Moisés Caicedo

This feels obvious, but obvious is not always wrong.

Caicedo covers ground, protects the defense, wins duels and gives Ecuador enough composure to play through pressure instead of only surviving it.

In an environment that will be entirely against him, Ecuador need their captain to look like the calmest player on the field.

That usually describes him pretty well.

Prediction: Ecuador 1–0 Mexico

Mexico have home advantage and one of the best atmospheres in the tournament behind them.

Ecuador have the better midfield. I usually trust that.

Caicedo gives Ecuador control in central areas, Hincapié and Pacho provide an excellent defensive foundation, and Ecuador have already shown against Germany that difficult atmospheres and heavyweight opponents do not change the way they play.

It may take one transition, one turnover or one set piece. Ecuador move on.

Canada are through to the Round of 16, but they needed almost every second available to get there.

South Africa spent most of yesterday playing exactly the match they wanted. They defended well, slowed Canada’s transitions, and forced Jesse Marsch’s side into longer periods of possession than they usually prefer. Extra time felt more likely than a winner. Instead, one loose ball near the edge of the box changed the game. Stephen Eustáquio reacted first, Canada survived, and South Africa’s best World Cup run came to an end just moments away from another half hour.

The result felt like a useful reminder heading into the rest of the Round of 32.

Group stage matches often reward consistency and squad depth over three games. Knockout football tends to become much simpler and much harsher. One mistake, one substitution, or one finish can decide the entire tournament for a team that spent years getting there.

Day 19 gives us three more chances to find out who handles that pressure best.

Brazil meet Japan in Houston in one of the more interesting stylistic matchups of the round. Germany face a Paraguay side that has shown very little interest in making matches comfortable for opponents. The evening finishes in Monterrey, where Morocco and the Netherlands meet in a fixture that feels more like a quarterfinal than an opening knockout match.

Samba Against Structure

Brazil have looked more complete with each match. The improvement has been tactical as much as individual.

Earlier in the year, Brazil often felt like a collection of elite players waiting for moments of inspiration. Through the group stage, Carlo Ancelotti’s side began looking more connected in possession and much more organized when trying to recover the ball after attacks broke down.

Vinícius Júnior has been central to that change.

Brazil are finding him earlier in attack, teammates are creating better passing angles around him, and opponents are struggling to isolate him without opening space elsewhere. The version of Vinícius that dominates Champions League knockout matches has finally started appearing regularly in a Brazil shirt.

Japan arrive with one advantage that many opponents do not have.

They genuinely believe they can beat Brazil.

The friendly victory over Brazil last year does not directly matter in Houston, but it removes any sense of intimidation from the occasion. Hajime Moriyasu’s side are among the most tactically disciplined teams remaining in the tournament, and they have spent years proving that organization and patience can compensate for differences in individual talent.

Japan defend compactly and rarely chase the ball unnecessarily. That means Brazil’s possession has to move with purpose. Quick switches of play, underlapping runs and third-man movements through midfield are more likely to create the sort of defensive decisions that pull Japan out of shape.

Takefusa Kubo’s absence removes some creativity, but Japan still have enough quality to create problems in transition. Ayase Ueda has quietly put together a strong tournament, while Daichi Kamada remains one of the better players in the competition at finding space behind aggressive midfields.

Under Ancelotti, Casemiro has become more involved in helping Brazil sustain attacks and recover second balls quickly after moves break down. Against a team that transitions as efficiently as Japan, that work becomes almost as valuable as anything happening inside the penalty area.

Player to Watch: Vinícius Júnior

This feels like Vinícius’ tournament.

Neymar’s return remains important, but Brazil’s attack now moves according to Vinícius’ decisions. Defenders retreat when he accelerates, midfielders shift toward his side of the field, and spaces begin opening elsewhere because opponents are so worried about what happens when he receives the ball facing forward.

Few players in world football influence defensive structures as quickly as he does.

Prediction: Brazil 2–1 Japan

Japan have enough defensive organization and technical quality to stay in the game for long stretches, particularly if they can avoid chasing the match early.

Brazil, however, have looked progressively more comfortable with each passing performance, and the combination of Vinícius’ form and Ancelotti’s tactical balance should eventually prove enough to move them into the Round of 16.

Germany Have Talent. Paraguay Have Ideas.

Germany won their group and still managed to arrive in the knockout rounds surrounded by questions.

The defeat to Ecuador in the final group match reopened conversations about Julian Nagelsmann’s selections. Germany remain one of the strongest squads in the competition, but talent alone rarely calms public debate around the national team.

Paraguay will not care much about any of that.

Gustavo Alfaro’s side reached the knockout rounds by doing exactly what they intended to do from the beginning of the tournament. They defended well, competed physically and turned matches into uncomfortable tactical battles. Paraguay rarely make games attractive for neutral viewers, but they are very good at making games frustrating for opponents.

Germany are likely to dominate possession. The challenge is turning that possession into something dangerous against a defense that is comfortable protecting the edge of its own penalty area for long periods. Germany need movement between lines, particularly from Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala, and they need runners attacking spaces behind defenders rather than waiting for the perfect opening to appear.

Deniz Undav feels important for that reason.

His movement inside crowded penalty areas has given Germany a different dimension throughout the tournament. Paraguay’s center backs are comfortable in physical battles. Constant movement and late runs create different problems.

Paraguay’s attacking plan is fairly straightforward, but that does not make it less effective. Diego Gómez gives them progression. Julio Enciso remains the player most likely to create something unexpected from difficult positions. Germany looked vulnerable defending transitions against Ecuador, and Paraguay will try to recreate those moments whenever possible.

Set pieces also deserve attention.

Paraguay treat corners and free kicks as major parts of their attacking plan rather than secondary routes toward goal. Germany know every delivery into the penalty area will arrive with intent.

Player to Watch: Jamal Musiala

Musiala changes the pace of matches.

Germany can spend long stretches controlling possession without making opponents particularly uncomfortable. Musiala’s dribbling changes that equation immediately, especially against teams that prefer defending compactly around the edge of their own box.

Paraguay will reduce space whenever possible. Musiala is Germany’s best answer to that problem.

Prediction: Germany 3–1 Paraguay

Paraguay should remain competitive for much of the afternoon because they defend well enough to prevent Germany from creating chance after chance.

Germany simply have too many players capable of creating advantages in small spaces, and knockout football usually rewards teams that can create quality moments without needing perfect attacking moves to get there.

The Match of the Day

This is the game I keep coming back to.

Brazil may be the favorite. Germany may be the giant trying to avoid an upset. Netherlands against Morocco feels like the match that could shape the entire side of the bracket.

Both teams came through difficult groups and both look capable of reaching the quarterfinals. Instead, one leaves before the Round of 16 even begins.

The Netherlands arrive with familiar strengths.

Virgil van Dijk organizes the defensive line, Frenkie de Jong controls rhythm in midfield and Cody Gakpo continues to provide reliable production in attacking areas. Ronald Koeman wants his team stretching opponents wide before attacking spaces through the middle with runners arriving from deeper positions.

Morocco are particularly comfortable defending that style of game.

They remain disciplined for long periods without the ball. Teams often finish matches against Morocco with impressive possession numbers and fewer clear opportunities than they expected to create. Achraf Hakimi remains the central figure.

His influence extends far beyond overlaps and assists. Hakimi gives Morocco width in possession, recovery speed in transition and an outlet whenever pressure begins to build. The battle with Cody Gakpo could shape the match because it affects both ends of the pitch at once.

Morocco’s has quietly been one of the stories of the tournament. Sofyan Amrabat continues to provide defensive balance, while Ismael Saibari has become important progressing the ball through pressure.

The conditions in Monterrey may help them too.

Slower matches generally favor teams comfortable defending for longer stretches and attacking quickly after turnovers. Morocco have built much of their recent success around that approach.

As someone who has watched Colombia and Morocco become two of the most enjoyable tournament teams to watch over the last few years, I also have to admit I enjoy teams that make favorites solve problems rather than simply trying to survive them.

Morocco tend to do that.

Player to Watch: Achraf Hakimi

Few players influence matches in as many phases of play as Hakimi.

He provides Morocco’s width, creates transition opportunities and helps stabilize the defensive structure whenever opponents attack wide areas. His positioning often tells you how Morocco want the game to look long before the scoreboard does.

Prediction: Morocco 2–1 Netherlands

The Netherlands will probably finish with more possession and more touches in the final third.

Morocco have shown repeatedly that those numbers do not concern them very much.

They defend well, recover numbers quickly and remain one of the better transition teams left in the competition. Hakimi should find opportunities down the right side, Amrabat should keep central areas compact, and Morocco have enough quality in attacking moments to punish mistakes when they appear.

Canada await in the Round of 16.

The World Cup spent two weeks asking teams to survive.

Now it starts asking them to win.

England beat Panama 2–0 to finish top of Group L, but it was hardly a statement performance. For an hour, Panama frustrated them and made England look more like a team trying not to make mistakes than one trying to win the World Cup.

Jude Bellingham decided enough was enough. The midfielder broke the game open with a trademark run into the box before setting up Harry Kane minutes later. England advance, but questions remain.

Croatia did what Croatia always seem to do in tournaments: survive.

Needing a result against Ghana, Zlatko Dalić’s side leaned on experience once again. Luka Modrić controlled the rhythm, Croatia found their moments, and a late Nikola Vlašić winner sent them into the Round of 32. Ghana lost, but still progressed as one of the best third-place teams after another disciplined performance.

Colombia and Portugal played out one of the best games of the tournament so far.

Colombia created the better moments and never allowed Portugal to settle into their usual rhythm. Jhon Córdoba spent the night battling center backs, winning duels, and giving Colombia an outlet whenever pressure arrived. Gustavo Puerta covered ground all over the midfield and disrupted Portugal’s buildup before it could develop. James Rodríguez drifted between the lines, finishing with five chances created, while Cristiano Ronaldo was largely kept quiet as Colombia limited Portugal to just 45% possession. Colombia topped the group. Portugal advanced too. For ninety minutes in Miami, it felt less like a final group match and more like a knockout game that neither side wanted to lose.

DR Congo delivered one of the stories of the tournament.

Trailing Uzbekistan at halftime, they responded with three second-half goals to secure their first World Cup victory and a place in the knockout rounds. The team nobody was talking about a week ago is preparing to face England with absolutely nothing to lose.

Argentina rotated heavily, still won comfortably, and then Lionel Messi came off the bench and scored a free kick because some things never change.

Austria and Algeria then ended the group stage with six goals, two comebacks, and just enough chaos to remind everyone why the World Cup is the World Cup.

The calculators are gone. The group tables are gone. Lose today and your tournament ends.

A Knockout Match Nobody Saw Coming

If somebody had told you six months ago that the opening match of the knockout stage would be South Africa against Canada, you probably would have assumed something had gone very wrong for several traditional powers.

Instead, both teams earned their place here.

South Africa survived Group A through organization, discipline and patience. Hugo Broos’ side conceded just three goals in three matches and never looked interested in turning games into track meets. They defend compactly in a 4-2-3-1 shape, keep very little space between midfield and defense, and force opponents wide where crosses become easier to defend.

They’re comfortable making games ugly. Honestly, they prefer it that way.

Canada are almost the complete opposite. Jesse Marsch wants chaos.

He wants high pressing, quick transitions and attacks that happen before opponents can recover their shape. Canada have looked their best in this tournament when matches become open and vertical. Jonathan David thrives attacking unsettled defenses, Tajon Buchanan becomes dangerous when isolated against fullbacks, and Jacob Shaffelburg gives them another direct option down the left.

The tactical battle almost writes itself.

If Canada force turnovers high up the pitch and play the match in transition, they should win.

If South Africa survive the first wave of pressure and turn this into a slower, more physical game, things become uncomfortable very quickly.

The biggest team news surrounds Alphonso Davies.

The Canadian captain is available after injury concerns earlier in the tournament but is expected to begin the match on the bench. Even limited minutes from Davies changes the entire tactical equation. South Africa know that if the game is level after an hour, one of the fastest players in world football could suddenly appear against tired defenders.

That is not exactly ideal.

Canada also receive a major boost with Moïse Bombito returning to the back line. His pace allows Canada to press more aggressively because they know they have someone capable of defending large spaces behind the defensive line.

That matters against Relebohile Mofokeng.

South Africa’s best route forward will likely come through Mofokeng finding space in transition and combining with Evidence Makgopa before Canada’s defense can reset. If Canada lose control of midfield and allow South Africa to break pressure, the underdogs absolutely have enough quality to punish them.

The other player to watch tactically is Teboho Mokoena.

Canada will likely press South Africa’s center backs aggressively, which means Mokoena becomes the first pass out of pressure and the player responsible for turning defensive possessions into attacking opportunities. If Canada can prevent him from receiving comfortably, South Africa could spend long stretches pinned inside their own half.

If they cannot, this becomes a much longer afternoon than many people expect.

Canada have more talent. South Africa may have less pressure.

Knockout football has a funny habit of making those two things feel a lot closer than they should.

Player to Watch: Jonathan David

Alphonso Davies will get the headlines. Jonathan David might decide the match.

The Juventus striker has put together an outstanding tournament because he offers far more than goals. He drops into midfield to connect play, drifts into half spaces to create overloads, presses center backs and somehow always seems to appear in dangerous positions at exactly the right moment.

Against South Africa’s compact defensive shape, Canada probably will not create fifteen chances.

David may only receive two or three clear opportunities all afternoon. For a striker of his quality, that is usually enough.

Prediction: Canada 2–1 South Africa

South Africa are too organized defensively and too disciplined tactically for this to become another Canada attacking showcase. There are going to be long stretches where Canada dominate possession but struggle to create anything clean in central areas.

Eventually, though, talent usually wins these matches. Jonathan David finds one. Alphonso Davies changes the game off the bench.

Canada survive the scare and move on to the Round of 16.

The knockout stage officially begins.